Multifractality in Seismicity Spatial Distributions: Significance and Possible Precursory Applications as Found for Two Cases in Different Tectonic Environments

We explore fractal properties of two observed seismicity distributions prior to the 2003 M _w 7.4 Colima, Mexico and 1992 M _w 7.3 Landers, USA earthquakes, together with several mathematical fractal distributions and two non-fractal ones, in order to estimate minimum reliable sample sizes, determine whether fractality for observed seismicity is essentially different from random uniform distributions, and explore the possibility of extracting premonitory information from fractal characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes. Sample sizes above 800 events for whole catalogs appear to be sufficient to maintain ordered multifractality and to yield dimension estimates that vary smoothly and reliably. Fractal estimates appear to be best for whole catalogs that include aftershocks. The fractal characteristics of spatial distributions of seismicity are essentially different from those of the uniform random distribution, which is the null hypothesis of a non-fractal distribution with minimum information. The fractal dimensions and afractality measures of seismicity distributions change with time and show distinctive behaviors associated with foreshocks and main events, although these behaviors are different for each example. Results suggest the possibility of a priori identification of foreshocks to large earthquakes. A combination of fractal dimension and afractality measures over time may be helpful in large earthquake premonitory studies.     

Laboratory tests of steel simple torsionally unbalanced models

The objective of this work is to obtain estimations of the amplification factors α and δ used for torsion design of buildings, from experiments. For this study, simple one‐storey torsionally unbalanced (TU) steel models were considered. Models consisted of a deck supported on four columns with a selected arrangement of hinges at column ends. Two theoretical structural eccentricities (e = 0.05 and 0.15) were considered. Models were excited with a simple long‐period pendulum consisting of a hanging platform with a forced‐vibration generator on it. Eight models were tested at several excitation levels (frequencies and force magnitudes) in both ranges of behaviour: elastic and inelastic. Experiments were conducted at three frequency ratios of excitation. Registered accelerations of the pendulum platform indicate that the experimental set‐up leads to excitations that resemble narrow‐band seismic ground motions. Frame shear force estimations, based on accelerations recorded at both deck sides, indicate that torsion design factors (α and δ) depend on eccentricity. Estimations of frame shears based on measurements indicate that for normalized eccentricities e ? 0.025, the amplification α can be between 2 and 3; while δ factor resulted between 0.0 and 1.6. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ex post analysis of engineered tsunami mitigation measures in the town of Dichato,Chile

Natural Hazards - Due to Chile’s notorious and frequent seismic activity, earthquake- and tsunami-related studies have become a priority in the interest of developing effective...     

Simulation and properties of a non-homogeneous spring-block earthquake model with asperities

The spring-block model proposed by Olami, Feder and Christensen (OFC) has several properties that are similar to those observed in real seismicity. In this paper we propose a modification of the original model in order to take into account that in a real fault there are several regions with different properties (non-homogeneity). We define regions in the network that is reminiscent of the real seismic fault, with different sizes and elastic parameter values. We obtain the Gutenberg-Richter law for the synthetic earthquake distributions of magnitude and the stair-shaped plots for the cumulative seismicity. Again, as in the OFC-homogeneous case, we obtain the stability for the cumulative seismicity stair-shaped graphs in the long-term situation; this means that the straight line slopes that are superior bounds of the staircases have a behavior akin to the homogeneous case. We show that with this non-homogeneous OFC model it is possible to include the asperity concept to describe high-stress zones in the fault.     

Floor response spectrum method for seismic analysis of multiply supported secondary systems

Fundamental principles from structural dynamics, theory of random processes and perturbation techniques are used to develop a new method for seismic analysis of multiply supported secondary subsystems, such as piping attached to primary structures. The method provides a decoupled analysis of the secondary subsystem wherein the response is given in terms of response spectra associated with the attachment points (‘floors’). In order to account for correlations between modal responses and between support motions, an extension of the conventional floor response spectrum, denoted crossoscillator, cross-floor response spectrum, is introduced. Important effects of tuning, interaction, non-classical damping and spatial coupling, which are inherent characteristics of combined primary–secondary systems, are included through the extended spectra. An efficient method for generation of the extended spectra directly in terms of a ground response spectrum is developed. Numerical comparisons with exact results are used to examine the accuracy of the proposed method and to demonstrate the importance of the characteristics mentioned above. In all cases examined, the proposed method shows excellent agreement with exact results. By accounting for the effect of interaction, the proposed method leads to more realistic and economical design criteria for secondary subsystems.     

Evaluation and analysis of surface deformation in west Chapala basin,central Mexico

Vertical deformation was measured at 14 benchmarks within the urban area of Jocotepec Mexico using first-order leveling methods and then spatially analyzed in relation to land subsidence and soil discontinuity patterns. The study area is located within the western portion of the Chapala basin, middle-west Mexico. Observations of vertical surficial deformation were made at each benchmark (September and November 2012) relative to a fixed station and compared to an initial survey of each benchmark (April 2012). Results indicate that a maximum subsidence of 7.16 cm over the 8-month measurement interval occurs near downtown coincident with the largest levels of drawdown and translates to a maximum subsidence rate of 0.89 cm/month for the sampling period. Two benchmarks located northwest and southeast of the urban area exhibited uplift of 2.8 and 0.76 cm, respectively, suggesting a complex mechanical response between the sedimentary soil units and the factors causing deformation. A potential spatial relationship exists between subsidence patterns and soil discontinuities. Four separate cones of groundwater depression were observed with two being coincident with subsidence bowls downtown and south of the urban area; however, there is no clear relationship between drawdown and subsidence in the remaining areas. Hydrogeologic reconstructions reveal alternating sequences of alluvial aquifers and highly deformable lacustrine aquitards. An analysis of the soil discontinuities reveals that they are directly aligned with the patterns of vertical deformation.     

Hydrodynamic modelling of mesoscale eddies in the Black Sea

A three dimensional structure of mesoscale circulation in the Black Sea is simulated using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System. A number of sensitivity tests reveal the response of the model to changes in the horizontal resolution, time steps, and diffusion coefficients. Three numerical grids are examined with x-fine (3.2 km), fine (6.7 km) and coarse (25 km) resolution. It is found that the coarse grid significantly overestimates the energy of the currents and is not adequate even for the study of basin-scale circulation. The x-fine grid, on the other hand, does not give significant advantages compared to the fine grid, and the latter is used for the bulk of simulations. The most adequate parameters are chosen from the sensitivity study and used to model both the basin-scale circulation and day-to-day variability of mesoscale currents for the months of May and June of 2000. The model is forced with actual wind data every 6 h and monthly climatic data for evaporation, precipitation, heat fluxes and river run-off. The results of the fine grid model are compared favourably against the satellite imagery. The model adequately reproduces the general circulation and many mesoscale features including cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, jets and filaments in different parts of the Black Sea. The model gives a realistic geographical distribution and parameters of mesoscale currents, such as size, shape and evolution of the eddies.     

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting: I. Theory and Method,Parkfield Application

We present a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple semi-periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any identifiable sequence in the time series. The method, based on the analytic Fourier transform, yields estimates of the departure from periodicity of an observed sequence, and of the probability that the sequence is not due to chance. These estimates are used to make and to evaluate forecasts of future events belonging to each sequence. Numerous tests with synthetic catalogs show that the method is surprisingly capable of correctly identifying sequences, unidentifiable by eye, in complicated time series. Correct identification of a given sequence depends on the number of events it contains, on the sequence’s departure from periodicity, and, in some cases, on the choice of starting and ending times of the analyzed time window; as well as on the total number of events in the time series. Some particular data combinations may result in spectra where significant periods are obscured by large amplitudes artifacts of the transform, but artifacts can be usually recognized because they lack harmonics; thus, in most of these cases, true semi-periodic sequences may not be identified, but no false identifications will be made. A first example of an application of the method to real seismicity data is the analysis of the Parkfield event series. The analysis correctly aftcasts the September 2004 earthquake. Further applications to real data from Japan and Venezuela are shown in a companion paper.     

Reconstructing the early 19th‐century Waal River by means of a 2D physics‐based numerical model

Suspended‐sediment concentration data are a missing link in reconstructions of the River Waal in the early 1800s. These reconstructions serve as a basis for assessing the long‐term effects of major interventions carried out between 1850 AD and the early 20th century. We used a 2D physics‐based morphodynamic model accounting for the influence of floodplain vegetation to fill in this gap. Historical discharge hydrographs were derived from a correlation between flow discharge records at Cologne and water level measurements of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands, taking into account the discharge distribution between the branches. Historical floodplain sedimentation rates were estimated using old cartographic information and recent geomorphologic field work. The computed historical sedimentation rates are found to be within the range of measured data, which suggests that fine suspended sediment concentrations in the early 1800s were comparable to contemporary ones. The computations show also how vegetation enhances the formation of natural levees close to the main channel and at the same time decreases the sedimentation rates in farther areas of the floodplain. A sensitivity analysis shows suspended sediment composition to have a strong influence on the resulting quantities and patterns of floodplain deposition. The reconstruction has also provided validation of the modelling tools to reproduce the effects of vegetation on sediment dynamics, enabling their implementation to study other cases. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.