Regional scale rainfall–runoff modeling using VARX–MGARCH approach

Multivariate time series modeling approaches are known as useful tools for describing, simulating, and forecasting hydrologic variables as well as their changes over the time. These approaches also have temporal and cross-sectional spatial dependence in multiple measurements. Although the application of multivariate linear and nonlinear time series approaches such as vector autoregressive with eXogenous variables (VARX) and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) models are commonly used in financial and economic sciences, these approaches have not been extensively used in hydrology and water resources engineering. This study employed VARX and VARX–MGARCH approaches in modeling mean and conditional heteroscedasticity of daily rainfall and runoff records in the basin of Zarrineh Rood Dam, Iran. Bivariate diagonal VECH (DVECH) model, as a main type of MGARCH, shows how the conditional variance–covariance and conditional correlation structure vary over the time between residuals series of the fitted VARX. For this purpose, five model fits, which consider different combinations of twofold rainfall and runoff, including both upstream and downstream stations, have been investigated in the present study. The VARX model, with different orders, was applied to the daily rainfall–runoff process of the study area in each of these model fits. The Portmanteau test revealed the existence of conditional heteroscedasticity in the twofold residuals of fitted VARX models. Therefore, the VARX–DVECH model is proposed to capture the heteroscedasticity existing in the daily rainfall–runoff process. The bivariate DVECH model indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance–covariance matrix related to the twofold innovations of rainfall–runoff processes. Furthermore, the evaluation criteria for the VARX–DVECH model revealed the improvement of VARX model performance.     

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.     

A new contribution to the geology of the Egyptian Red Sea shelf using geophysical data

The study examines the Egyptian Red Sea shelf and throws more light on the structural set-up and tectonics controlling the general framework of the area and nature of the crust. Herein, an integrated study using gravity and magnetic data with the available seismic reflection lines and wells information was carried out along the offshore area. The Bouguer and reduced-to-pole aeromagnetic maps were processed and reinterpreted in terms of rifting and plate tectonics. The qualitative interpretation shows that the offshore area is characterized by positive gravity everywhere that extremely increases towards the centre of the graben, supporting the presence of an intrusive zone below the axial/main trough. The gravity data were confirmed by the presence of high magnetic amplitudes, magnetic linearity and several dipoles concentrated along the rift axis for at least 250 km. The lineament analysis indicates widespread of the Erythrean (Red Sea) trend that was offset/cut by transform faults in the NE direction (Aqaba). The tectonic model suggests the presence of one tensional (N65°E) and two compressional (N15°W, N30°W) phases of tectonism, resulted in six cycles of deformations, classified into three left lateral (N35°E, N15°E and N–S) and three right lateral (N85°W, N45°W and N60°W). The basement relief map reveals a rough basement surface that varies in depth between 1 and 5.6 km. It outlines several offshore basins, separated from each other by ridges. The models show that the basement consists of tilted fault blocks, which vary greatly in depth and composition and slopes generally to the west. They indicate that the coastal plain is underlain by acidic basement blocks (continental crust) with no igneous activity while suggesting elevated basic materials (oceanic crust) below the rift axis. The study suggests that northern Red Sea forms an early stage of seafloor spreading or at least moved past the late stage of continental rifting.     

Addition of Phosphorus and Nitrogen Support the Invasiveness of Alternanthera Philoxeroides Under Water Stress

Coordination of plant functional traits with changes in the environment is helpful to understand the mechanisms underlying both invasiveness and adaptation of plants. Thus, to investigate the performance and functional traits in invasive Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.), an experiment of water stress is conducted with different nutrient concentrations. Alternanthera philoxeroides plants are grown under natural and nutrient soils and subjected to three levels of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) solution: ambient P and N concentration (P?N?), P addition with an ambient N concentration (P+N?), and P addition with high N concentration (P+N+) in combination with three different irrigation water levels as 1) 100% irrigation, 2) 50% irrigation, and 3) 25% deficit irrigation. Based on results, A. philoxeroides produces significantly higher biomass in both soils under 100% irrigation with P+N? treatment and exhibits higher values of leaf area and root length. However, 25% irrigation with P?N? treatment in both soils exerts a significant negative effect on relative growth rate and root/shoot ratio of A. philoxeroides plants. Under 50% irrigation in soils with both P+N? and P+N+ treatments, high values of leaf nitrogen are recorded. Moreover, nutrient soil is more supportive to A. philoxeroides than natural soil.     

Hazard risk assessment of landslide-prone sub-Himalayan region by employing geospatial modeling approach

Natural Hazards - Ecological processes such as landslide disaster are primarily impacted by both geological and land use activities happening at different spatiotemporal scale. They specifically...     

Changes in precipitation extremes over arid to semiarid and subhumid Punjab,Pakistan

Asymmetrical monsoons during the recent past have resulted into spatially variable and devastating floods in South Asia. Analysis of historic precipitation extremes record may help in formulating mitigation strategies at local level. Eleven indices of precipitation extremes were evaluated using RClimDex and daily time series data for analysis period of 1981–2010 from five representative cities across Punjab province of Pakistan. The indices include consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, number of days above daily average precipitation, number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm, number of days with precipitation ≥20 mm, very wet days, extremely wet days, simple daily intensity index, maximum 1-day precipitation quantity, maximum 5 consecutive day precipitation quantity, and annual total wet-day precipitation. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope extremes were used to detect trends in indices. Droughts and excessive precipitation were dictated by elevation from mean sea level with prolonged dry spells in southern Punjab and vice versa confirming spatial trends for precipitation extremes. However, no temporal trend was observed for any of the indices. Summer in the region is the wettest season depicting contribution of monsoons during June through August toward devastating floods in the region.     

Petrogenesis of Rabor-Lalehzar magmatic rocks (SE Iran): Constraints from whole rock chemistry and Sr-Nd isotopes

The Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc (UDMA) of Central Iran has been formed during Neotethyan Ocean subduction underneath Eurasia. The Rabor-Lalehzar magmatic complex (RLMC), covers an area ～1000?km² in the Kerman magmatic belt (KMB), SE of UDMA. RLMC magmatic rocks include both granitoids and volcanic rocks with calc-alkaline and adakitic signatures but with different ages.Miocene adakitic rocks are characterd by relatively enrichmented in incompatible elements, high (Sr/Y)_(N) (>40), and (La/Yb)_(N) (>10) ratios with slightly negative Eu anomalies (Eu_N/Eu*≈ 0.9), depletion in HFSEs, and relatively non-radiogenic Sr isotope signatures (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.7048–0.7049). In contrast, the Oligocene granitoids exhibit low Sr/Y (<20) and La/Yb (<9) ratios, negative Eu anomalies (Eu_N/Eu*?≈?0.5), and enrichment in HFSEs and radiogenic Sr isotope signatures (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.7050–0.7052), showing affinity to the island arc rocks. Eocene volcanic rocks which crusscut the younger granitoid rocks comprise andesites and dacites. Geochemically, lavas show calc-alkaline character without any Eu anomaly (Eu_N/Eu*?≈?1.0). Based on the geochemical and isotopic data we propose that melt source for both calc-alkaline and adakitic rocks from the RLMC can be related to the melting of a sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). Basaltic melts derived from a metasomatized mantle wedge might be emplaced at the mantle-crust boundary and formed the juvenile mafic lower crust. However, some melts fractionated in the shallow magma chambers and continued to rise forming the volcanic intermediate-mafic rocks at the surface. On the other hand, the assimilation and fractional crystallization in the shallow magma chambers of may have been responsible for the development of Oligocene granitoids with calc-alkaline affinity. In the mid-Late Miocene, following the collision between Afro-Arabia and Iranian block the juvenile mafic crust of UDMA underwent thickening and metamorphosed into garnet-amphibolites. Subsequent upwelling of a hot asthenosphere during Miocene was responsible for partial melting of thickened juvenile crust of the SE UDMA (RLM complex). The adakitic melts ascended to the shallow crust to form the adakitic rocks in the KMB.     

Prediction and controlling of flyrock in blasting operation using artificial neural network

Flyrock is one of the most hazardous events in blasting operation of surface mines. There are several empirical methods to predict flyrock. Low performance of such models is due to complexity of flyrock analysis. Existence of various effective parameters and their unknown relationships are the main reasons for inaccuracy of the empirical models. Presently, application of new approaches such as artificial intelligence is highly recommended. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict and control flyrock in blasting operation of Sangan iron mine, Iran incorporating rock properties and blast design parameters using artificial neural network (ANN) method. A three-layer feedforward back-propagation neural network having 13 hidden neurons with nine input parameters and one output parameter were trained using 192 experimental blast datasets. It was also observed that in ascending order, blastability index, charge per delay, hole diameter, stemming length, powder factor are the most effective parameters on the flyrock. Reducing charge per delay caused significant reduction in the flyrock from 165 to 25 m in the Sangan iron mine.     

Typhoon rainfall impact on drip water δ18O in Xianyun cave,Southeast China

Precisely dated high-resolution speleothems may record past typhoon events, however, the state of the art cave monitoring is a prerequisite to identify suitable stalagmites for the reconstruction of such events. With this motivation, we examined the isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O and d-excess values) of rainfall, outside river, cave drip water, and an underground river in the Xianyun cave system, located in southeastern China. Monthly to bi-monthly monitoring of environmental and isotopic conditions was conducted for 1 year, from December 2018 to December 2019, including a typhoon event (August 24, 2019 to August 26, 2019), called Bailu. The δ¹⁸O of rainfall samples over the cave and outside river water ranged from −9.7‰ to −1.9‰ and −8.2‰ to −6.3‰, respectively, while the δ¹⁸O of Typhoon Bailu rainfall and instantaneous outside river water ranged from −19.6‰ to −6.3‰ and −10.4‰ to −7.7‰, respectively. Typhoon Bailu-induced rainfall showed distinctly negative δ¹⁸O values as compared to those of the monthly and bi-monthly rainfall, exhibiting a three-stage inverted U-shaped variation characteristic. Four drip water monitoring sites inside the cave revealed low variations during the studied period with average values of −7.8‰, −8.0‰, −8.0‰, and −8.1‰. However, during the typhoon, the drip water δ¹⁸O values exhibited similar characteristic as outside rainfall but with just 0.2‰ negative deviation owing to precipitation amount and drip water source reservoir. The integration of rainfall amount with drip water source reservoir determines the degree to which a typhoon isotopic signature gets diluted during epikarst infiltration. This study provides the first instrumental evidence of typhoon signal in karst system in southeastern China. Our results imply that the δ¹⁸O of drip water in Xianyun cave can instantaneously respond to typhoon rainfall. However, the 0.2‰ shift in drip water δ¹⁸O is difficult to be recorded by speleothems. We suggest multi-year monitoring to ascertain fully if the stalagmites could be used as paleotyphoon proxy.