Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden “switch-on” of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts.     

Record of Late Pleistocene Glaciation and Deglaciation in the Southern Cascade Range. I. Petrological Evidence from Lacustrine Sediment in Upper Klamath Lake, Southern Oregon

Petrological and textural properties of lacustrine sediments from Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, reflect changing input volumes of glacial flour and thus reveal a detailed glacial history for the southern Cascade Range between about 37 and 15 ka. Magnetic properties vary as a result of mixing different amounts of the highly magnetic, glacially generated detritus with less magnetic, more weathered detritus derived from unglaciated parts of the large catchment. Evidence that the magnetic properties record glacial flour input is based mainly on the strong correlation between bulk sediment particle size and parameters that measure the magnetite content and magnetic mineral freshness. High magnetization corresponds to relatively fine particle size and lower magnetization to coarser particle size. This relation is not found in the Buck Lake core in a nearby, unglaciated catchment. Angular silt-sized volcanic rock fragments containing unaltered magnetite dominate the magnetic fraction in the late Pleistocene sediments but are absent in younger, low magnetization sediments. The finer grained, highly magnetic sediments contain high proportions of planktic diatoms indicative of cold, oligotrophic limnic conditions. Sediment with lower magnetite content contains populations of diatoms indicative of warmer, eutrophic limnic conditions. During the latter part of oxygen isotope stage 3 (about 37–25 ka), the magnetic properties record millennial-scale variations in glacial-flour content. The input of glacial flour was uniformly high during the Last Glacial Maximum, between about 21 and 16 ka. At about 16 ka, magnetite input, both absolute and relative to hematite, decreased abruptly, reflecting a rapid decline in glacially derived detritus. The decrease in magnetite transport into the lake preceded declines in pollen from both grass and sagebrush. A more gradual decrease in heavy mineral content over this interval records sediment starvation with the growth of marshes at the margins of the lake and dilution of detrital material by biogenic silica and other organic matter.     

Channel adjustments of the lower Trinity River,Texas, downstream of Livingston Dam

Channel cross‐sectional changes since construction of Livingston Dam and Lake Livingston in 1968 were studied in the lower Trinity River, Texas, to test theoretical models of channel adjustment, and to determine controls on the spatial extent of channel response. High and average flows were not significantly modified by the dam, but sediment transport is greatly reduced. The study is treated as an opportunistic experiment to examine the effects of a reduction in sediment supply when discharge regime is unchanged. Channel scour is evident for about 60 km downstream, and the general phenomena of incision, widening, coarsening of channel sediment and a decrease in channel slope are successfully predicted, in a qualitative sense, by standard models of channel response. However, there is no consistent channel response within this reach, as various qualitatively different combinations of increases, decreases or no change in width, depth, slope and roughness occur. These multiple modes of adjustment are predicted by the unstable hydraulic geometry model. Between about 60 km and the Trinity delta 175 km downstream of the dam, no morphological response to the dam is observed. Rather than a diminution of the dam's effects on fluvial processes, this is due to a fundamental change in controls of the fluvial system. The downstream end of the scour zone corresponds to the upstream extent of channel response to Holocene sea level rise. Beyond 60 km downstream, the Trinity River is characterized by extensive sediment storage and reduced conveyance capacity, so that even after dam construction sediment supply still exceeds transport capacity. The channel bed of much of this reach is near or below sea level, so that sea level rise and backwater effects from the estuary are more important controls on the fluvial system than upstream inputs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entropy Analysis of Multiple Scale Causality and Qualitative Causal Shifts in Spatial Systems*

Spatial systems are typically characterized by multiple controlling factors and processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales (multiple scale causality [MSC]). An entropy decomposition‐based approach to MSC is presented here in two contexts. First, given maps or distributions of an observed phenomenon at two or more scales, the contribution at more local or global (relative to the primary scale of observation) controls to the observed entropy can be estimated. Second, a theoretical treatment of the entropy decomposition equations shows that as the range of scale is increased by broadening or narrowing resolutions or by incorporating more controls, the influence of larger or smaller‐scale influences not only changes, but may change qualitatively, e.g., in terms of having positive (entropy‐increasing) or negative (information‐increasing) effects. Such qualitative causal shifts have implications for efforts to use any single causal explanation across the molecular to planetary spatial and instantaneous to geological range of scales relevant to physical geography. The entropy decomposition method is illustrated with an application to soil landscapes in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas.     

Gold partitioning in melt-vapor-brine systems

We used laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to measure the solubility of gold in synthetic sulfur-free vapor and brine fluid inclusions in a vapor + brine + haplogranite + magnetite + gold metal assemblage. Experiments were conducted at 800°C, oxygen fugacity buffered at Ni-NiO (NNO), and pressures ranging from 110 to 145 MPa. The wt% NaCl eq. of vapor increases from 2.3 to 19 and that of brine decreases from 57 to 35 with increasing pressure. The composition of the vapors and brines are dominated by NaCl + KCl + FeCl₂ + H₂O. Gold concentrations in vapor and brine decrease from 36 to 5 and 50 to 28 μg/g, respectively, and the calculated vapor:brine partition coefficients for gold decrease from 0.72 to 0.17 as pressure decreases from 145 to 110 MPa. These data are consistent with the thermodynamic boundary condition that the concentration of gold in the vapor and brine must approach a common value as the critical pressure is approached along the 800°C isotherm in the NaCl-KCl-FeCl₂-HCl-H₂O system.We use the equilibrium constant for gold dissolution as AuOH⁰, extrapolated from lower temperature and overlapping pressure range, to calculate expected concentrations of AuOH⁰ in our experimental vapors. These calculations suggest that a significant quantity of gold in our experimental vapors is present as a non-hydroxide species. Possible chloridogold(I) species are hypothesized based on the positively correlated gold and chloride concentrations in our experimental vapors. The absolute concentration of gold in our synthetic vapor, brine, and melt and calculated mass partition coefficients for gold between these physicochemically distinct magmatic phases suggests that gold solubility in aqueous fluids is a function of aqueous phase salinity, specifically total chloride concentration, at magmatic conditions. However, though we highlight here the effect of salinity, the combination of our data with data sets from lower temperatures evinces a significant decrease in gold solubility as temperature drops from 800°C to 600°C. This decrease in solubility has implications for gold deposition from ascending magmatic fluids.     

Macropores as preferential flow paths in meander bends

Macropores are subsurface connected void spaces caused by processes such as fracture of soils, micro‐erosion, and fauna burrows. They are common near streams (e.g. hyporheic and riparian zones) and may act as preferential flow paths between surface and groundwaters, affecting hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. We tested the hydrologic function of macropores by constructing an artificial macropore within the saturated zone of a meander bend (open macropore, ‘OM’) and later filling its upstream end (partially filled macropore, ‘PFM’). For each treatment, we injected saline tracer at an upgradient monitoring well within the meander and monitored downgradient hydraulics and tracer transport. Pressure transducers in monitoring wells indicated hydraulic gradients within the meander were 32% higher perpendicular to and 6% higher parallel to the macropore for the OM than for the PFM. Additionally, hydraulic conductivities measured via falling head tests were 29 to 550 times higher along the macropore than in nearby sediment. We used electrical conductivity probes in wells and electrical resistivity imaging to track solute transport. Transport velocities through the meander were on average 9 and 21% higher (per temporal moment analysis and observed tracer peak, respectively) for the OM than for the PFM. Furthermore, temporal moments of tracer breakthrough analysis indicated downgradient longitudinal dispersion and breakthrough tracer curve tailing were on average 234% and 182% higher for the OM, respectively. This suggests the OM enabled solute transport at overall shorter timescales than the matrix but also increased tailing. Our results demonstrate the importance of macropores to meander bend hydrology and solute transport. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.