Characteristics and Influence of Phosphorus Accumulated in the Bed Sediments of a Stream Located in an Agricultural Watershed

We investigated the accumulation and influence of bioavailable P (BAP) in sediments of a stream located in an agricultural area of the Lake Mendota watershed in Wisconsin, USA. During hydrologic events, the stream carried high concentrations of suspended sediment (up to 250 mg/l) and BAP (up to 2.5 mg/l). Bed sediments were highly enriched in BAP, as inventories of BAP in the top 10 cm of sediment ranged from 143 to 14,500 μg P/cm². Space variations in BAP inventories were related to site-specific hydrodynamics and geochemical factors, including iron (Fe; r ² = 0.71) and aluminum (Al; r ² = 0.54) concentrations. Most sites behaved as potential sinks for dissolved reactive phosphate during hydrologic events and potential sources during base-flow periods. Through the combination of site-specific factors and geochemical controls, Dorn Creek modifies the amount, timing, and composition of P delivered from the watershed to downstream sites and water bodies.     

An evolutionary algorithm for multicriteria path optimization problems

For many years researchers and decision makers (DMs) faced with multicriteria shortest path problems (MSPPs) have resorted to reductions to the classical shortest path problem (SPP) by means of weighted linear combinations of the criteria. Algorithmic and approximation schemes are available to solve MSPPs but these approaches often display complexities prohibitive to their implementation on real‐world applications. This paper describes the development of an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) approach to MSPPs on networks with multiple independent criteria. The EA approach is shown to sufficiently explore the underlying network space, generate large candidate path sets, and evolve high quality approximations to the optimal MSPP solution(s). Opportunities for early termination of the EA in time‐critical applications are also offered. Among the issues for further work is the integration of the EA as a tool within a GIS for path optimization.     

A comparison of the asymptotic and no-z approximations for galactic dynamos

Abstract

The asymptotic and the no-z approximation methods of solving the axisymmetric mean field αΩ dynamo equation in a galactic disc are compared. The behaviour of the solutions is explored in both the linear and nonlinear regimes for a variety of dynamo parameters and two different rotation curves. The solutions obtained from the two different approaches are found to be in good agreement.     

HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT: UNPREDICTABILITY AND THE PRIMACY OF PLACE

Landscapes, environments, and ecosystems (i.e., places) are historically and spatially contingent and therefore unique. Generalizations and laws are based on “all other things being equal.” Owing to historical and spatial contingency, all other things are never completely equal and often do not approach that ideal closely enough to allow for reliable prediction. The problem is illustrated by examining effects of grazing and fire suppression on transitions between grass and woody vegetation communities. In three different environments in the southern United States (central Texas, southwestern Virginia, and eastern North Carolina), three different relationships exist between grazing and fire regime, and vegetation. Other examples are common in the geographic and environmental literature. This suggests that the search for a single applicable generalization or predictive model of a given human-induced environmental change that can be applied without accounting for the particular characteristics of places may be futile. Several general ways to address this issue are suggested. First is the recognition that place matters. Conditions specific to a location or region will influence what, how, or even if generalizations apply. Second is the adoption of a “demographic” approach. This is based on the idea that for places, like people, it is possible to make aggregate or probabilistic generalizations or predictions, but these cannot be applied to deterministic prediction of individuals. Third is a synoptic approach based on forecasting not via simple cause-effect relationships, but based on a typology of situations that recognizes and incorporates the unique characteristics of site and situation. Several converging threads of inquiry in geography and geosciences explicitly or implicitly address the issue of historical and spatial contingency. [Key words: landscape, environment, place, prediction.]     

Reconstructing epilimnetic total phosphorus using diatoms: statistical and ecological constraints

Diatoms respond rapidly to eutrophication and diatom-based models for inferring total phosphorus (TP) have found wide application in palaeolimnology, especially in tracking trajectories of past and recent nutrient enrichment and in establishing pre-disturbance targets for restoration. Using new analysis of existing training sets and sediment-cores we examine the statistical and ecological constraints of diatom-inferred TP (DI-TP) models. Although the models show an apparently strong relationship between measured and inferred TP in the training sets, even under cross-validation, the models display three fundamental weaknesses, namely (1) the relationship between TP and diatom relative abundance is heavily confounded with secondary variables such as alkalinity and lake depth, (2) the models contain many taxa that are not significantly related to TP, and (3) comparison between different models shows poor or no spatial replicability. At some sites the sediment-core diatom assemblage change tracks the TP gradient in the training sets and DI-TP reconstructions are consistent with monitored TP data and known catchment histories for the recent past. At others diatom species turnover is apparently related to variables other than TP, and DI-TP fails to even reproduce plausible trends. Pre-disturbance DI-TP values are also questionable at most sites. We argue that these problems pervade many DI-TP models, particularly those where violations of the basic assumptions of the transfer function approach are ignored.     

The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.     

Origin of glacial ridges (OIS 6) in the Kaskaskia Sublobe,southwestern Illinois,USA

The origin of Illinois Episode (OIS 6) glacial ridges (formerly: ‘Ridged Drift’) in the Kaskaskia Basin of southwestern Illinois is controversial despite a century of research. Two studied ridges, containing mostly fluvial sand (OSL ages: ~ 150 ± 19 ka), with associated debris flows and high-angle reverse faults, are interpreted as ice-walled channels. A third studied ridge, containing mostly fine-grained till, is arcuate and morainal. The spatial arrangement of various ridge types can be explained by a glacial sublobe in the Kaskaskia Basin, with mainly fine-grained ridges along the sublobe margins and coarse-grained glaciofluvial ridges in a paleodrainage network within the sublobe interior. Illinois Episode till fabric and striation data demonstrate southwesterly ice flow that may diverge near the sublobe terminus. The sublobe likely formed as glacial ice thinned and receded from its maximum extent. The Kaskaskia Basin contains some of the best-preserved Illinois Episode constructional glacial landforms in the North American midcontinent. Such distinctive features probably result from ice flow and sedimentation into this former lowland, in addition to minimal postglacial erosion. Other similar OIS 6 glacial landforms may exist in association with previously unrecognized sublobes in the midcontinent, where paleo-lowlands might also have focused glacial sedimentation.     

Using a mathematical model to assess the sustainability of proposed bauxite mining in Andhra Pradesh, India from a quantitative-based environmental impact assessment

The theory and practice of sustainability involves the understanding and management of the coupled relationship between the environment and humans. This relationship is very evident in respect to mining where the impacts of operations, both positive and negative, are environmental and socioeconomic in nature. In recent years, evaluating the sustainability of a mining operation has grown within the literature due to the impacts that mining has upon a local community. However, the literature has been often characterised by a variety of case study-specific approaches to define and evaluate the sustainability of mining operations. This is due to the fundamental problem of defining what is sustainability. The paper applies, based on our previous research, a mathematical model of sustainability to the environmental impact assessment (EIA) of a proposed bauxite mining project in the Andhra Pradesh province, India. The model??s application to the impact assessment, which used the rapid impact assessment matrix, was undertaken for the purpose of determining the level and nature of sustainability (if appropriate) of the proposed project. The results indicated that the project was considered as unsustainable in its current form, based on an obtained E value of 0.249 and an H _NI value of 0.500. The results suggested that the project would greatly benefit from an environmental management plan in order to mitigate the extensive negative environmental and social impacts of the project. The results also indicated the potential of the model in assisting in the resolution of questions of the sustainability of local projects, which are assessed through quantitative-based EIA.     

Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change. These changes are significantly altering water availability in the region and pose critical risks to local populations that are highly dependent on these resources for livelihoods. We examine these issues through an interdisciplinary and linked evaluation of hydrological change and livelihood vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed. Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade^???1 since 1970, accompanied by total volume loss on the order of 0.022 km³. Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded. Recent stream discharge measurements from the proglacial lake below the glacier are more coincident with the highly variable seasonal precipitation than they were during the 1998?C1999 hydrological year. Local household perceptions of glacier recession and seasonal hydrological variability agree with this trend, which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed. Household case-study survey results demonstrate that shifting water resources, increasing weather extremes and climate-related threats to tourism are all new vectors of vulnerability for household livelihoods.