A global perspective on African climate

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.     

Reconstruction of long-term precipitation records for Edinburgh: an examination of the mechanisms responsible for temporal variability in precipitation

Summary Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas, atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation (p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Authors’ addresses: N. Macdonald, Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, United Kingdom; I. D. Phillips, J. Thorpe, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT, United Kingdom.     

Wind-swept clouds and possible triggered star formation associated with the supernova remnant G357.7+0.3

We present evidence for interaction between the supernova remnant (SNR) G357.7+0.3 and nearby molecular clouds, leading to the formation of wind-swept structures and bright emission rims. These features are not observed at visual wavelengths, but are clearly visible in mid-infrared mapping undertaken using the Spitzer Space Telescope . Analysis of one of these clouds, the bright cometary structure G357.46+0.60, suggests that it contains strong polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission features in the 5.8 and 8.0 μm photometric bands, and that these are highly variable over relatively small spatial scales. The source is also associated with strong variations in electron density; a far-infrared continuum peak associated with dust temperatures of ∼30 K; and has previously been observed in the 1720 MHz maser transition of OH, known to be associated with SNR shock excitation of interstellar clouds. This source also appears to contain a young stellar object (YSO) within the bright rim structure, with a steeply rising spectrum between 1.25 and 24 μm. If the formation of this star has been triggered recently by the SNR, then YSO modelling suggests a stellar mass  ∼5–10 M_⊙  , and luminosity   L _YSO∼10²–2 × 10³ L_⊙  .
Finally, it is noted that a further, conical emission region appears to be associated with the Mira V1139 Sco, and it is suggested that this may represent the case of a Mira outflow interacting with a SNR. If this is the case, however, then the distance to the SNR must be ∼half of that determined from CS   J = 2–1  and 3–2 line radial velocities.     

Subduction Influence on Oxygen Fugacity and Trace and Volatile Elements in Basalts Across the Cascade Volcanic Arc

Fluids or melts derived from a subducting plate are often citedas a mechanism for the oxidation of arc magmas. What remainsunclear is the link between the fluid, oxygen fugacity, andother major and trace components, as well as the spatial distributionof the impact of those fluids. To test the potential effectsof addition of a subduction-derived fluid or melt to the sub-arcmantle, olivine-hosted melt inclusions from primitive basalticlavas sampled from across the central Oregon Cascades (43°–45°N)have been analyzed for major, trace and volatile elements andfO₂. Oxygen fugacity was determined in melt inclusions fromsulfur speciation determined by electron microprobe and fromolivine–chromite oxygen geobarometry. The overall rangein fO₂ based on sulfur speciation measurements is from <–0·25log units to + 1·9 log units (FMQ, where FMQ is fayalite–magnetite–quartzbuffer). Oxygen fugacity is positively correlated with fluid-mobiletrace element and light rare earth element contents in basaltsgenerated by relatively low-degree partial melting. Establishinga further correlation between fO₂ and fluid-mobile trace elementabundances with position along the arc requires the basaltsto be subdivided into shoshonitic, calc-alkaline, low-K tholeiiteand enriched intraplate basalt groups. Melt inclusions fromenriched intraplate and shoshonitic lavas show increasing fO₂and trace element abundances closer to the trench, whereas calc-alkalinemelt inclusions exhibit no significant across-arc variations.Low-K tholeiitic melt inclusions record an increase in incompatibletrace elements closer to the trench; however, there is no correlatedincrease in fO₂. The correlation observed in enriched intraplateand shoshonitic melt inclusions is interpreted to reflect aprogressively greater proportion of a fluid-rich, oxidized subductioncomponent in magmas generated nearer the subduction zone. Significantly,calc-alkaline melt inclusions with high ratios of large ionlithophile elements to high field strength elements, characteristicof ‘typical’ arc magmas, have oxidation states indistinguishablefrom low-K tholeiite and enriched intraplate basalt melt inclusions.The lack of across-arc geochemical variation in calc-alkalinemelt inclusions may suggest that these basalts are not necessarilythe most appropriate magmas for examining recent addition ofa subduction component to the sub-arc mantle. Flux and batchmelt model results produce a wide range of predicted amountsof melting and subduction component added to the mantle source;however, general trends characterized by increased melting andproportion of the subduction component from enriched intraplate,to low-K tholeiite, to calc-alkaline are robust. The model resultsdo not require enriched intraplate, low-K tholeiite and calc-alkalinemagmas to be produced from the same more fertile mantle source.However, enriched intraplate magmas, in contrast to calc-alkalineand low-K tholeiite magmas, cannot be generated from a depletedmantle source. Flux or batch melting of either the more fertileor depleted mantle sources used to generate the low-K tholeiite,calc-alkaline, and enriched intraplate magmas cannot reproduceshoshonitic compositions, which require a significantly depletedmantle source strongly metasomatized by a subduction component.The potential mantle source for shoshonitic basalts has a predictedfO₂ (after oxidation) from + 0·3 to + 2·4 logunits (FMQ) whereas the mantle source for low-K tholeiite, calc-alkaline,and enriched intraplate magmas may range from –1·1to + 0·7 log units (FMQ). KEY WORDS: basalt; Cascades; melt inclusions; oxidation state; volatiles     

Identification of a sulfide derivative with a bicyclic hydrocarbon skeleton related to squalene. Part II: synthesis of a S-spiro-like dithiolane triterpenoid

A sulfide with a bicyclic squalene hydrocarbon skeleton present in sediments from various depositional settings and of different geological age has been identified by synthesis of a reference compound. In contrast to previous expectations [cf. Schouten, S., Sinninghe Damsté, J.S., de Leeuw, J.W., 1995. A novel triterpenoid carbon skeleton in immature sulphur-rich sediments. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 59, 953–958; Gug, S., Schaeffer, P., Adam, P., Klein, S., Motsch, E., Albrecht, P., 2009. Identification of a sulfide derivative with a bicyclic hydrocarbon skeleton related to squalene. Part I: Synthesis of a dithiane triterpenoid. Organic Geochemistry 40, 876–884.], this sulfide bears two “S-spiro type“ thiolane moities, but not the two thiochromane moieties originally envisaged. The synthesis resulted in the formation of a complex isomeric mixture of compounds, all co-eluting in gas chromatography (GC) in the form of one broad peak, as is the case with the geochemical compound. The spiro-type sulfide was formed by intramolecular sulfurization of a polyunsaturated bicyclic squalene derivative of unknown biological origin. The presence of this sulfide in a number of Triassic to Miocene marine sediments from various and contrasting depositional settings (upwelling environments, shallow continental platforms, lagoonal sub-basins, hypersaline environments), all characterized by strongly anoxic conditions, but with or without photic zone anoxia, indicates that the microorganisms biosynthesizing the precursor bicyclic squalene occupy diverse ecological niches.     

Thermal convection in ice-I shells of Titan and Enceladus

Cassini-Huygens observations have shown that Titan and Enceladus are geologically active icy satellites. Mitri and Showman [Mitri, G., Showman, A.P., 2005. Icarus 177, 447-460] and McKinnon [McKinnon, W.B., 2006. Icarus 183, 435-450] investigated the dynamics of an ice shell overlying a pure liquid-water ocean and showed that transitions from a conductive state to a convective state have major implications for the surface tectonics. We extend this analysis to the case of ice shells overlying ammonia-water oceans. We explore the thermal state of Titan and Enceladus ice-I shells, and also we investigate the consequences of the ice-I shell conductive-convective switch for the geology. We show that thermal convection can occur, under a range of conditions, in the ice-I shells of Titan and Enceladus. Because the Rayleigh number Ra scales with δ³/ηb, where δ is the thickness of the ice shell and ηb is the viscosity at the base of the ice-I shell, and because ammonia in the liquid layer (if any) strongly depresses the melting temperature of the water ice, Ra equals its critical value for two ice-I shell thicknesses: for relatively thin ice shell with warm, low-viscosity base (Onset I) and for thick ice shell with cold, high-viscosity base (Onset II). At Onset I, for a range of heat fluxes, two equilibrium states—corresponding to a thin, conductive shell and a thick, convective shell—exist for a given heat flux. Switches between these states can cause large, rapid changes in the ice-shell thickness. For Enceladus, we demonstrate that an Onset I transition can produce tectonic stress of ∼500 bars and fractures of several tens of km depth. At Onset II, in contrast, we demonstrate that zero equilibrium states exist for a range of heat fluxes. For a mean heat flux within this range, the satellite experiences oscillations in surface heat flux and satellite volume with periods of ∼50-800 Myr even when the interior heat production is constant or monotonically declining in time; these oscillations in the thermal state of the ice-I shell would cause repeated episodes of extensional and compressional tectonism.     

A decline in molluscan carbonate production driven by the loss of vegetated habitats encoded in the Holocene sedimentary record of the Gulf of Trieste

Carbonate sediments in non‐vegetated habitats on the north‐east Adriatic shelf are dominated by shells of molluscs. However, the rate of carbonate molluscan production prior to the 20th century eutrophication and overfishing on this and other shelves remains unknown because: (i) monitoring of ecosystems prior to the 20th century was scarce; and (ii) ecosystem history inferred from cores is masked by condensation and mixing. Here, based on geochronological dating of four bivalve species, carbonate production during the Holocene is assessed in the Gulf of Trieste, where algal and seagrass habitats underwent a major decline during the 20th century. Assemblages of sand‐dwelling Gouldia minima and opportunistic Corbula gibba are time‐averaged to >1000 years and Corbula gibba shells are older by >2000 years than shells of co‐occurring Gouldia minima. This age difference is driven by temporally disjunct production of two species coupled with decimetre‐scale mixing. Stratigraphic unmixing shows that Corbula gibba declined in abundance during the highstand phase and increased again during the 20th century. In contrast, one of the major contributors to carbonate sands – Gouldia minima – increased in abundance during the highstand phase, but declined to almost zero abundance over the past two centuries. Gouldia minima and herbivorous gastropods associated with macroalgae or seagrasses are abundant in the top‐core increments but are rarely alive. Although Gouldia minima is not limited to vegetated habitats, it is abundant in such habitats elsewhere in the Mediterranean Sea. This live–dead mismatch reflects the difference between highstand baseline communities (with soft‐bottom vegetated zones and hard‐bottom Arca beds) and present‐day oligophotic communities with organic‐loving species. Therefore, the decline in light penetration and the loss of vegetated habitats with high molluscan production traces back to the 19th century. More than 50% of the shells on the sea floor in the Gulf of Trieste reflect inactive production that was sourced by heterozoan carbonate factory in algal or seagrass habitats.     

Long-term hydrology and aquatic biogeochemistry data from H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Cascade Mountains,Oregon

The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) encompasses the 6400 ha Lookout Creek watershed in western Oregon, USA. Hydrologic, chemistry and precipitation data have been collected, curated, and archived for up to 70 years. The HJA was established in 1948 to study the effects of harvest of old-growth conifer forest and logging-road construction on water quality, quantity and vegetation succession. Over time, research questions have expanded to include terrestrial and aquatic species, communities and ecosystem dynamics. There are nine small experimental watersheds and 10 gaging stations in the HJA, including both reference and experimentally treated watersheds. Gaged watershed areas range from 8.5 to 6242 ha. All gaging stations record stage height, water conductivity, water temperature and above-stream air temperature. At nine of the gage sites, flow-proportional water samples are collected and composited over 3-week intervals for chemical analysis. Analysis of stream and precipitation chemistry began in 1968. Analytes include dissolved and particulate species of nitrogen and phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, pH, specific conductance, suspended sediment, alkalinity, and major cations and anions. Supporting climate measurements began in the 1950s in association with the first small watershed experiments. Over time, and following the initiation of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) grant in 1980, infrastructure expanded to include a set of benchmark and secondary meteorological stations located in clearings spanning the elevation range within the Lookout Creek watershed, as well as a large number of forest understory temperature stations. Extensive metadata on sensor configurations, changes in methods over time, sensor accuracy and precision, and data quality control flags are associated with the HJA data.