Unveiling the atmospheres of giant exoplanets with an EChO-class mission

More than a thousand exoplanets have been discovered over the last decade. Perhaps more excitingly, probing their atmospheres has become possible. With current data we have glimpsed the diversity of exoplanet atmospheres that will be revealed over the coming decade. However, numerous questions concerning their chemical composition, thermal structure, and atmospheric dynamics remain to be answered. More observations of higher quality are needed. In the next years, the selection of a space-based mission dedicated to the spectroscopic characterization of exoplanets would revolutionize our understanding of the physics of planetary atmospheres. Such a mission was proposed to the ESA cosmic vision program in 2014. Our paper is therefore based on the planned capabilities of the Exoplanet Characterization Observatory (EChO), but it should equally apply to any future mission with similar characteristics. With its large spectral coverage (0.4 ? 16 μm), high spectral resolution (λ/Δλ > 300 below 5 μm and λ/Δλ > 30 above 5 μm) and 1.5m mirror, a future mission such as EChO will provide spectrally resolved transit lightcurves, secondary eclipses lightcurves, and full phase curves of numerous exoplanets with an unprecedented signal-to-noise ratio. In this paper, we review some of today’s main scientific questions about gas giant exoplanets atmospheres, for which a future mission such as EChO will bring a decisive contribution.     

An intercomparison of two rawinsonde systems

Abstract

An intercomparison of the Väisälä MicroCora system used in the Automated Shipboard Aerological Program (ASAP) and the Atmospheric Environment Service upper‐air system (GMD/ADRES) was conducted in May‐June 1983. Thirty‐three paired ascents were made. The ASAP system dry‐bulb temperatures averaged 0.3°C warmer. For the lowest 100 mb, the dew‐point temperature difference (ASAP ‐ GMD/ADRES) was near ‐1°C whereas for the 780–500 mb layer, the difference was 1°C. The wind component mean differences averaged were small but with a 4 m s^?1 standard deviation.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Convective-conductive transitions and sensitivity of a convecting ice shell to perturbations in heat flux and tidal-heating rate: Implications for Europa

We investigate the response of conductive and convective ice shells on Europa to variations of heat flux and interior tidal-heating rate. We present numerical simulations of convection in Europa's ice shell with Newtonian, temperature-dependent viscosity and tidal heating. Modest variations in the heat flux supplied to the base of a convective ice shell, ΔF, can cause large variations of the ice-shell thickness Δδ. In contrast, for a conductive ice shell, large ΔF involves relatively small Δδ. We demonstrate that, for a fluid with temperature-dependent viscosity, the heat flux undergoes a finite-amplitude jump at the critical Rayleigh number Racr. This jump implies that, for a range of heat fluxes relevant to Europa, two equilibrium states—corresponding to a thin, conductive shell and a thick, convective shell—exist for a given heat flux. We show that, as a result, modest variations in heat flux near the critical Rayleigh number can force the ice shell to switch between the thin, conductive and thick, convective configurations over a ∼10⁷-year interval, with thickness changes of up to ∼10-30 km. Depending on the orbital and thermal history, such switches might occur repeatedly. However, existing evolution models based on parameterized-convection schemes have to date not allowed these transitions to occur. Rapid thickening of the ice shell would cause radial expansion of Europa, which could produce extensional tectonic features such as fractures or bands. Furthermore, based on interpretations for how features such as chaos and ridges are formed, several authors have suggested that Europa's ice shell has recently undergone changes in thickness. Our model provides a mechanism for such changes to occur.     

A Molecular Filament Threaded by Helical Magnetic Fields?

We present a multitransition study in the ¹³CO(1-0), ¹²CO(2-1), ¹²CO(3-2) and ¹²CO(4-3) lines of a parsec scale elongated structure connected to a low-mass dense core. Densities larger than n _{H 2} = 10⁴ cm^?3 are inferred in the central regions of this structure, supporting the proposition that it is a genuine filament denser than its environment. The sharp observed drop of the ¹²CO and ¹³CO emissions requires a power law density fall-off steeper than r ^?1 although a single density law cannot reproduce the spatial shift of 0.1 pc between the ¹³CO and ¹²CO drops. Our results support the previous proposition that this elongated structure is a filament threaded by helical magnetic fields, channeling the gas inflow onto the dense core.     

Putative ice flows on Europa: Geometric patterns and relation to topography collectively constrain material properties and effusion rates

Europa's surface exhibits numerous small dome-like and lobate features, some of which have been attributed to fluid emplacement of ice or slush on the surface. We perform numerical simulations of non-Newtonian flows to assess the physical conditions required for these features to result from viscous flows. Our simulations indicate that the morphology of an ice flow on Europa will be, at least partially, influenced by pre-existing topography unless the thickness of the flow exceeds that of the underlying topography by at least an order of magnitude. Three classes of features can be identified on Europa. First, some (possibly most) putative flow-like features exhibit no influence from the pre-existing topography such as ridges, although their thicknesses are generally on the same order as those of ridges. Therefore, flow processes probably cannot explain the formation of these features. Second, some observed features show modest influence from the underlying topography. These might be explained by ice flows with wide ranges of parameters (ice temperatures >230 K, effusion rates >10⁷ m³ year⁻¹, and a wide range of grain sizes), although surface uplift (e.g., by diapirism) and in situ disaggregation provide an equally compelling explanation. Third, several observed features are completely confined by pre-existing topographic structures on at least one side; these are the best known candidates for flow features on Europa. If these features resulted from solid-ice flows, then temperatures >260 K and grain sizes <2 μm are required. Such small grain sizes seem unlikely; low-viscosity flows such as ice slurries or brines provide a better explanation for these features. Our results provide theoretical support for the view that many of Europa's lobate features have not resulted from solid-ice flows.