Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.     

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A decline in molluscan carbonate production driven by the loss of vegetated habitats encoded in the Holocene sedimentary record of the Gulf of Trieste

Carbonate sediments in non‐vegetated habitats on the north‐east Adriatic shelf are dominated by shells of molluscs. However, the rate of carbonate molluscan production prior to the 20th century eutrophication and overfishing on this and other shelves remains unknown because: (i) monitoring of ecosystems prior to the 20th century was scarce; and (ii) ecosystem history inferred from cores is masked by condensation and mixing. Here, based on geochronological dating of four bivalve species, carbonate production during the Holocene is assessed in the Gulf of Trieste, where algal and seagrass habitats underwent a major decline during the 20th century. Assemblages of sand‐dwelling Gouldia minima and opportunistic Corbula gibba are time‐averaged to >1000 years and Corbula gibba shells are older by >2000 years than shells of co‐occurring Gouldia minima. This age difference is driven by temporally disjunct production of two species coupled with decimetre‐scale mixing. Stratigraphic unmixing shows that Corbula gibba declined in abundance during the highstand phase and increased again during the 20th century. In contrast, one of the major contributors to carbonate sands – Gouldia minima – increased in abundance during the highstand phase, but declined to almost zero abundance over the past two centuries. Gouldia minima and herbivorous gastropods associated with macroalgae or seagrasses are abundant in the top‐core increments but are rarely alive. Although Gouldia minima is not limited to vegetated habitats, it is abundant in such habitats elsewhere in the Mediterranean Sea. This live–dead mismatch reflects the difference between highstand baseline communities (with soft‐bottom vegetated zones and hard‐bottom Arca beds) and present‐day oligophotic communities with organic‐loving species. Therefore, the decline in light penetration and the loss of vegetated habitats with high molluscan production traces back to the 19th century. More than 50% of the shells on the sea floor in the Gulf of Trieste reflect inactive production that was sourced by heterozoan carbonate factory in algal or seagrass habitats.     

Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, th...     

Effect of hot dry summer tropical climate on forage intake and milk yield in Holstein–Friesian and indigenous zebu cows in Sudan

The effects of dry summer ambient temperature on some physiological and productive responses were studied in an exotic European breed (Holstein–Friesian) and a local zebu breed (Butana ecotype) of cattle in Sudan. Rectal temperature and respiration rate were positively correlated, and dry matter intake and milk yield were negatively correlated with variation in ambient temperature. However, significant adverse effects on high ambient temperature were only observed in the exotic breed.     

An assessment model for the fate and environmental effects of offshore drilling mud discharges

The benthic boundary layer transport (bblt) model was developed to assess potential impact zones from drilling mud discharges from offshore oil and gas drilling. The model focuses on the drift, dispersion and concentration levels of the suspended fraction of the drilling mud fines in the benthic boundary layer with the assumption of a spatially homogeneous environment. The current version of the model includes a wave boundary layer, a breakup module for drilling mud flocs, a dose–response module for scallops, and a graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI was written in Java which makes the code largely platform independent. Simulations of suspended barite concentration near Sable Island on the Scotian Shelf during drilling in the fall of 1999 reproduce the very low concentrations (generally less than 1 μg L⁻¹) observed during the Environmental Effects Monitoring program. However, the simulations also exhibited concentrations in excess of the no-effects concentration for scallops (100 μg L⁻¹) prior to the sampling program. The model estimates that the potential impact on scallops in the vicinity of the drilling is a few days of lost growth over scales of a few kilometers.     

Storm Surges from Extra-Tropical Cyclones

The possible influence of climate change on the tracks of the extra-tropical cyclones as well as storm surges is studied. Two differentdata bases have been used: one for the Great Lakes of North America and the otherfor the German Bight in the North Sea of Europe. For the Great Lakes region,significant east-west and north-south shifts in the tracks of ETC'S with decadal periodicities have been observed. However, there was no trend in the amplitudes of storm surges. The most important result for the Great Lakes is that, depending upon its position relative to the constantly shifting storm tracks, a given location could eitherexperience a major storm surge or could miss out completely.The storm surges in the German Bight in general, and at Cuxhaven in particular, appear to show a slightly increasing trend in the latterpart of the 20th century. However, the most significant result for the German Bightis that the number of storm tides (i.e., multiple peaks in a given storm surge event)definitely has shown an increase in the second half of the 20th century. This increase isinterpreted as due to the influence of meso-scale weather systems embedded in the synoptic scale ETCs.     

Burial of organic carbon in Holocene sediments of the Zhujiang (Pearl River) and Changjiang (Yangtze River) estuaries

The East Asian marginal seas are important sinks of terrigenous materials transported by large rivers. In this study two cores from the Changjiang (Yangtze River) and Zhujiang (Pearl River) estuaries and one core from the inner shelf off of Hong Kong were investigated to examine the burial of organic matter during the postglacial period and its possible links with paleoenvironmental changes. Based on a simple two end-member mixing model, the terrestrial organic matter supplied primarily from the Zhujiang and Changjiang dominates the estuarine areas while marine organic matter contributes more to the inner-mid shelf. The competing contributions of terrestrial and marine organic matter are responsible for the downcore variations of organic elemental compositions. The overall decreasing shifts of total organic carbon concentrations and total organic carbon to total nitrogen ratios in the Zhujiang estuarine sediments since 6.5 kaBP seems to support the notion that depth profiles of organic matter compositions deposited in the Zhujiang Estuary can aid in the reconstruction of monsoon history in the Holocene. Nevertheless, organic matter compositions in the Changjiang Estuary and inner shelf off of southeastern Hong Kong respond in a different and more complex way to freshwater discharges or precipitation changes (monsoon variability) in the catchments, owing to complex controls of deposition and preservation of organic matter in these estuarine and shelf environments. Caution is therefore needed in using organic elemental and isotopic compositions to decipher paleoenvironmental changes in East Asian continental shelves where intense river–sea interactions occur and sedimentary environments change drastically.