Social vulnerability assessment to seismic risk using multicriteria analysis: the case study of Vila Franca do Campo (S?o Miguel Island, Azores, Portugal)

The increase in the frequency and magnitude of disasters triggered by earthquakes in different regions of the Earth is a major challenge to contemporary societies. The awareness that disasters and risk are processes structured on spatial?Ctemporal interactions maintained at the social-ecological system between the natural hazards and the vulnerabilities of socioeconomic, political and physical nature becomes utterly important in the increase of social systems?? resilience. Thus, the assessment of social vulnerability plays a decisive role in understanding the factors that distinguishes individuals, households and communities, in terms of their ability to anticipate, cope with, resist to and recover from the impact of disasters triggered by natural hazards. This article presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach model to assess the social vulnerability to seismic risk using multicriteria analysis (MCA) techniques, in a group decision-making process. The methodology applied to the municipality of Vila Franca do Campo (S?o Miguel Island, Azores, Portugal) identified moderate social vulnerability values at the neighbourhood level and higher social vulnerability values for the built environment and demographic characteristics of the social groups. The social vulnerability patterns make a clear distinction between the older/historical urban cores and the new urban areas. In the first case, the presence of ancient buildings constructed with materials of low resistance to earthquakes coupled with a higher population density and the traits of demographic and socioeconomic frailties of the social groups, results in higher vulnerability values. This pattern is common in the historic centre of S. Miguel district, Ribeira das Taínhas, northern areas of água de Alto and western and eastern neighbourhoods of Ponta Gar?a. The new urban areas, mainly found in S. Pedro, central areas of água de Alto, S. Miguel and Ponta Gar?a districts, have lower values of social vulnerability due to changes in the built, demographic and socioeconomic environments. Results recommend the integration of social vulnerability indexes into seismic risk mitigation policies and emergency management planning.     

Capturing and modelling metre‐scale spatial facies heterogeneity in a Jurassic ramp setting (Central High Atlas,Morocco)

Each simulation algorithm, including Truncated Gaussian Simulation, Sequential Indicator Simulation and Indicator Kriging is characterized by different operating modes, which variably influence the facies proportion, distribution and association of digital outcrop models, as shown in clastic sediments. A detailed study of carbonate heterogeneity is then crucial to understanding these differences and providing rules for carbonate modelling. Through a continuous exposure of Bajocian carbonate strata, a study window (320 m long, 190 m wide and 30 m thick) was investigated and metre‐scale lithofacies heterogeneity was captured and modelled using closely‐spaced sections. Ten lithofacies, deposited in a shallow‐water carbonate‐dominated ramp, were recognized and their dimensions and associations were documented. Field data, including height sections, were georeferenced and input into the model. Four models were built in the present study. Model A used all sections and Truncated Gaussian Simulation during the stochastic simulation. For the three other models, Model B was generated using Truncated Gaussian Simulation as for Model A, Model C was generated using Sequential Indicator Simulation and Model D was generated using Indicator Kriging. These three additional models were built by removing two out of eight sections from data input. The removal of sections allows direct insights on geological uncertainties at inter‐well spacings by comparing modelled and described sections. Other quantitative and qualitative comparisons were carried out between models to understand the advantages/disadvantages of each algorithm. Model A is used as the base case. Indicator Kriging (Model D) simplifies the facies distribution by assigning continuous geological bodies of the most abundant lithofacies to each zone. Sequential Indicator Simulation (Model C) is confident to conserve facies proportion when geological heterogeneity is complex. The use of trend with Truncated Gaussian Simulation is a powerful tool for modelling well‐defined spatial facies relationships. However, in shallow‐water carbonate, facies can coexist and their association can change through time and space. The present study shows that the scale of modelling (depositional environment or lithofacies) involves specific simulation constraints on shallow‐water carbonate modelling methods.     

Tempestite facies models for the epicontinental Triassic carbonates of the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain)

This study focuses on storm deposits in the Muschelkalk facies of the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain) and interprets their deposition mechanisms. Three types of storm deposit are distinguished: (i) pot/gutter casts; (ii) tempestite beds; and (iii) storm‐winnowed deposits. Each deposit provides information about the carbonate platform environment in which it was deposited. The tempestite models proposed are: (i) the bypass‐zone tempestite model, occurring in a muddy ramp at the epicontinental basin margin. This model is characterized by potholes and gutters that form in a shoreline bypass‐zone during storms; (ii) the gradient‐current tempestite model in which frequent tempestite beds are related to storm gradient currents. Thickness and grain size decrease towards the deep distal ramp; and (iii) the winnowed deposit tempestite model whereby storm deposits are winnowed and deposited in the same environment with only short lateral transport having occurred. This model evokes more restricted and shallower conditions, lagoons or inland seas. The distribution of all these deposits in the stratigraphic sections studied corroborate the eustatic third‐order cycle identified, although the different features of the storm deposits and their positions in each section indicate a subsidence varying in time and space. In the transgressive stage, the margins of the epicontinental basin were a well‐developed ramp with potholes and gutters. In contrast, during the high sea‐level stage, storm deposits generated tempestite beds or storm‐winnowed deposits in the different areas. The epicontinental carbonate platform with ramp edges evolved into a complex depositional system of coastal and shallow‐marine environments with lagoons and restricted inland seas. Thus, the epicontinental platform underwent substantial change from the Late Anisian to the Late Ladinian and this is reflected in its storm deposits.     

Uplifted marine terraces of the Akamas Peninsula (Cyprus): evidence of climatic conditions during the Late Quaternary highstands

An outcrop study of uplifted marine terraces provides information on the climate of past sea‐level maxima, supplementing existing palaeoclimatological archives. The western coast of the Akamas Peninsula shows several uplifted and intricately stacked Quaternary marine terraces. This study focuses on the sedimentology, petrography and sequence stratigraphy of the last three recent terraces and provides palaeoclimatological reconstruction and chronological framing. All three terraces display basically the same stratigraphic succession, which consists of regressive sequences ranging from bioturbated, storm‐influenced, subtidal high‐energy sands to subaerial exposure and aeolian deposition. Each sequence differs in petrography, reflecting contemporaneous climatic conditions. The first studied sequence (Marine Isotope Stage 9 or 11?) was deposited in a warm, arid climate, with oligotrophic water favouring ooid formation. The second sequence (Marine Isotope Stage 7) displays colder but humid conditions, with lower carbonate production and strong detrital input. The third sequence (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) records warm, humid conditions, with high carbonate production combined with significant detrital input. These littoral terraces offer high‐quality outcrops of glacioeustatic‐dominated, littoral sedimentology, together with evidence indicative of the regional climate during the late Pleistocene.     

Symplectite formation during decompression induced garnet breakdown in lower crustal mafic granulite xenoliths: mechanisms and rates

The complex microstructure of kelyphitic rims around garnet in lower crustal garnet granulite xenoliths from the Bakony–Balaton Highland Volcanic Field, Central Pannonian Basin has been studied in order to identify controls on garnet breakdown. Symplectites comprised of a vermicular intergrowth of submicron sized anorthite, orthopyroxene and spinel replace garnet at a sharp reaction front. Based on element distribution maps the transformation of garnet to symplectite is isochemical. Phase diagram calculations indicate that this reaction was induced by a pressure decrease and/or a temperature increase. In site-specific TEM foils prepared by focused ion beam technique and oriented parallel and perpendicular to the reaction front 200 nm wide rods of anorthite and 20 nm wide rods of spinel are identified. The rods are oriented approximately perpendicular to the replacement front and are embedded in an orthopyroxene matrix. The regular spacing of the symplectite phases along the reaction front suggests that their growth is controlled by diffusion. The kinetics of symplectite formation has been modelled based on irreversible thermodynamics. During interaction of the xenolith with the host basalt the microstructure and chemistry of the An–Opx–Spl symplectite was significantly modified and it was partially replaced by an olivine bearing symplectite. In contrast to primary symplectite formation, these processes were metasomatic in nature including addition of sodium, titanium and some trace elements from the basaltic melt and can clearly be discerned from the garnet breakdown. Based on these observations it is inferred that symplectite formation took place within the deep crust during the extension of the Pannonian Basin between 15 and 30 km depth at high temperature (850–1,050°C) prior to the volcanic transport to the surface.     

Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols

The coupled atmosphere–ocean Climate Model of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) has been used to run a time-dependent climate change experiment to study the impact of increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols on the simulated water cycle. This simulation has been initialised with the oceanic temperature and salinity profiles and the atmospheric trace gas concentrations observed in the 1950s, and has been carried out for 150 years after a 20-year spin-up. The simulated climate change has been analysed as the difference between two 30-year time slices: 1970–2000 and 2070–2100 respectively. The model achieves a reasonable simulation of present-day climate and simulates a general increase in precipitation throughout the twenty first century. The main exceptions are the subtropics, where the enhanced Hadley circulation has a drying impact, and the mid-latitude continents, where the increased evaporation in spring and decreased moisture convergence in summer lead to a relative summer drying. Global and regional analyses suggest that the precipitation increase is generally limited by a decrease in the water vapour cycling rate and in the precipitation efficiency, which appear as key parameters of the simulated water cycle. In order to reduce the spread between climate scenarios, more efforts should be devoted to estimate these parameters from satellite observations and meteorological analyses, and their possible evolution over recent decades. In the present study, the impacts of global warming on the surface hydrology have been also investigated. The main findings are the amplification of the annual cycle of soil moisture in the mid-and-high latitudes, and the decrease in the Northern Hemisphere snow cover, at a rate that is consistent with recent satellite estimations and should increase during the twenty first century. The runoff simulated over the 1950–2100 period has been converted into river flow using a linear river routeing model. The trends simulated over recent decades are surprisingly consistent with the river flow measurements available from the Global Runoff Data Centre. These trends can differ from those estimated over the whole 150-year integration, thereby indicating that it is not safe to predict hydrological impacts just by extrapolating the trends found in the available observations. Our climate model seems likely to provide qualitative hydrological scenarios over large river basins, but it still shows serious biases in the simulation of present-day river flows. Regional hydrological projections remain a challenge for the global climate modelling community and downscaling techniques are still necessary for this purpose.     

The measurement of coal porosity with different gases

Sorption processes can be used to study different characteristics of coal properties, such as gas content (coalbed methane potential of a deposit), gas diffusion, porosity, internal surface area, etc. Coal microstructure (porosity system) is relevant for gas flow behaviour in coal and, consequently, directly influences gas recovery from the coalbed.This paper addresses the determination of coal porosity (namely micro- and macroporosity) in relation to the molecular size of different gases. Experiments entailed a sorption process, which includes the direct method of determining the “void volume” of samples using different gases (helium, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and methane). Because gas behaviour depends on pressure and temperature conditions, it is critical, in each case, to know the gas characteristics, especially the compressibility factor.The experimental conditions of the sorption process were as follows: temperature in the bath 35 °C; sample with moisture equal to or greater than the moisture-holding capacity (MHC), particle size of sample less than 212 μm, and mass ca. 100 g.The present investigation was designed to confirm that when performing measurements of the coal void volume with helium and nitrogen, there are only small and insignificant changes in the volume determinations. Inducing great shrinkage and swelling effects in the coal molecular structure, carbon dioxide leads to “abnormal” negative values in coal void volume calculations, since the rate of sorbed and free gas is very high. In fact, when in contact with the coal structure, carbon dioxide is so strongly retained that the sorbed gas volume is much higher than the free gas volume. However, shrinkage and swelling effects in coal structure induced by carbon dioxide are fully reversible. Methane also induces shrinkage and swelling when in contact with coal molecular structure, but these effects, although smaller than those induced by carbon dioxide, are irreversible and increase the coal volume.     

AsteroFLAG: First results from hare‐and‐hounds Exercise #1

We report on initial results from the first phase of Exercise #1 of the asteroFLAG hare and hounds. The asteroFLAG group is helping to prepare for the asteroseismology component of NASA's Kepler mission, and the first phase of Exercise #1 is concerned with testing extraction of estimates of the large and small frequency spacings of the low‐degree p modes from Kepler‐like artificial data. These seismic frequency spacings will provide key input for complementing the exoplanet search data. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)