Statistical characteristics of instantaneous dense gas clouds released in an atmospheric boundary-layer wind tunnel

Wind tunnel experiments were performed to examine the behavior of suddenly released volumes of dense gas in a turbulent shear layer. Instantaneous concentrations were measured with hot-wire katherometers. Multiple replications of each cloud volume, density, and velocity combination produced statistics for plume arrival time, arrival of maximum concentration time, plume departure time, and maximum concentrations. Probability distributions and standard deviations of each plume property permit prediction of hazard risks.     

Constraints on the state of in situ effective stress and the mechanical behavior of ODP Leg 186 claystones in the Japan Trench forearc

Abstract The Japan Trench forearc offshore Honshu Island in northeast Japan, where the 130‐m.y.‐old Pacific oceanic plate is presently subducted, was drilled during the Ocean Drilling Program Leg 186. Results from mechanical and sedimentological studies of claystones recovered from Sites 1150 and 1151 in the overlying erosional forearc wedge are reported in the present study. Although many physical properties are similar in the seismic (Site 1150) and aseismic portion (Site 1151) of the shallow forearc, Site 1150 displayed a higher abundance of open fractures, two prominent fault zones and enigmatic pore fluid signatures in the claystones. The abundance of weak mineral phases, together with high smectite contents (from X‐ray diffraction), control the low friction coefficients of 0.33–0.39 of the claystones in ring‐shear experiments. Results from triaxial testing proposed overall low magnitudes of in situ effective vertical stress, with somewhat lower values at Site 1150 than at Site 1151. Similarly, samples from Site 1150 displayed slightly higher pore fluid pressures than those at Site 1151. The high sediment porosities, which are in part also a result of intact diatom tests (from scanning electron microscope), together with the anomalous fluid signatures and elevated pore fluid pressures, could very likely result from upward migration and influx of deep‐seated waters. Dewatering reactions at depth result in enhanced pore fluid pressure transients along out‐of‐sequence thrusts and consequently lower effective stress. At depths greater than that of Leg 186 drilling, elevated pressure–temperature conditions trigger mineral transformation and cementation, which result in increasing friction, unstable sliding and seismic rupture. Such earthquakes could have repeatedly disaggregated the consolidated claystone fabrics at the seismic site, and could be responsible for differences in yield strength and cementation when compared to the aseismic Site 1151.     

Estimation of friction parameters and laws in 1.5D shallow-water gravity currents on the f-plane, by data assimilation

A 1.5-dimensional, 1.5-layer shallow water model and an ensemble Kalman filter are used to evaluate the feasibility of estimating friction parameters and determining friction laws of oceanic gravity currents. The two friction laws implemented are a linear Rayleigh friction and a quadratic drag law. We demonstrate that the assimilation procedure rapidly estimates the total frictional force, whereas the distinction between the two laws is evolving on a slower time scale. We also demonstrate that parameter estimation can, in this way, choose between different parametrisations and help to discriminate between physical laws of nature by estimating the coefficients presented in such parametrisations.     

Using maximum likelihood to derive various distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic modeling assessment

Currently used goodness-of-fit (GOF) indicators (i.e. efficiency criteria) are largely empirical and different GOF indicators emphasize different aspects of model performance; a thorough assessment of model skill may require the use of robust skill matrices. In this study, based on the maximum likelihood method, a statistical measure termed BC-GED error model is proposed, which firstly uses the Box–Cox (BC) transformation method to remove the heteroscedasticity of model residuals, and then employs the generalized error distribution (GED) with zero-mean to fit the distribution of model residuals after BC transformation. Various distance-based GOF indicators can be explicitly expressed by the BC-GED error model for different values of the BC transformation parameter λ and GED kurtosis coefficient β. Our study proves that (1) the shape of error distribution implied in the GOF indicators affects the model performance on high or low flow discharges because large error-power (β) value can cause low probability of large residuals and small β value will lead to high probability of zero value; (2) the mean absolute error could balance consideration of low and high flow value as its assumed error distribution (i.e. Laplace distribution, where β = 1) is the turning point of GED derivative at zero value. The results of a study performed in the Baocun watershed via comparison of the SWAT model-calibration results using six distance-based GOF indicators show that even though the formal BC-GED is theoretically reasonable, the calibrated model parameters do not always correspond to high performance of model-simulation results because of imperfection of the hydrologic model. However, the derived distance-based GOF indicators using the maximum likelihood method offer an easy way of choosing GOF indicators for different study purposes and developing multi-objective calibration strategies.     

老黑山盆地下白垩统穆棱组油页岩与煤含油率控制因素

我国陆相盆地内普遍存在油页岩与煤共生的地质现象。本文以老黑山盆地下白垩统穆棱组油页岩与煤为研究对象,基于工业分析（含油率、灰分、挥发分、全硫和发热量）和有机地球化学分析（有机碳、岩石热解、显微组分和生物标志化合物）,对油页岩与煤含油率的控制因素开展研究。根据含油率等工业品质特征,将研究区油页岩与煤进一步划分为高含油率油页岩（HOS）、低含油率油页岩（LOS）、高含油率煤（HC）和低含油率煤（LC）4种亚类。其中HC的总有机碳质量分数和生烃潜力最高,其次为LC、HOS和LOS,4种亚类的有机质类型以Ⅱ型干酪根为主,均处于未成熟的热演化阶段。沉积环境与有机质来源是控制油页岩与煤含油率的关键因素,HOS主要形成于陆源有机质供给中等的湖沼环境,而HC主要形成于陆源有机质供给丰富的泥炭沼泽环境。油页岩与煤形成时期的高等植物以松科、柏科/杉科、南洋杉科、罗汉松科和蕨类植物为主,这些植物可以提供充足的树脂和蜡质有机质,从而使油页岩与煤具有相对较高的含油率。     

Analysis of Radionuclide Releases from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident Part I

Part I of this publication deals with the analysis of fission product releases consecutive to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. Reactor core damages are assessed relying on radionuclide detections performed by the CTBTO radionuclide network, especially at the particulate station located at Takasaki, 210 km away from the nuclear power plant. On the basis of a comparison between the reactor core inventory at the time of reactor shutdowns and the fission product activities measured in air at Takasaki, especially ⁹⁵Nb and ¹⁰³Ru, it was possible to show that the reactor cores were exposed to high temperature for a prolonged time. This diagnosis was confirmed by the presence of ¹¹³Sn in air at Takasaki. The ¹³³Xe assessed release at the time of reactor shutdown (8 × 10¹⁸ Bq) turned out to be in the order of 80 % of the amount deduced from the reactor core inventories. This strongly suggests a broad meltdown of reactor cores.     

Geschichte und Ursachen des Röhrichtrückgangs am Ammersee (Deutschland)

The development of aquatic reed stands at Lake Ammersee was documented by using vertical airborne photographs which were taken during four partial and five complete flights beginning in 1944. A dramatic decline of reed, especially of those parts which stood in deep water, was demonstrated. Between the years 1963 and 1969 60% and until 1992 another 30% of the Phragmitetum disappeared. Only at the east bank did the lake reed beds slightly expand.The examination of possible factors affecting the development of reed at Lake Ammersee lead to the following scenario: Until 1940 reed stands at Lake Ammersee spread and covered large aquatic areas. Only the east bank of the lake, where the influence of wind and waves was high, and banks near towns and recreation areas remained uncovered. Since the regulation of the River Ammer between 1920 and 1938 flood occurrence increased enormously. The flood disaster of the year 1965 coincided with the period of the highest rate of reed decline. The peak of eutrophication in the lake was reached in 1975. Huge carpets of green algae caused further retreat of reeds.At the present time recovery is not possible because of the negative influence of human recreation and of reed consuming waterfowl. Interestingly enough an expansion of reed has been observed at the east bank of Lake Ammersee at places were there was no Phragmites previously.