Pre- and post-seismic displacements associated with the Aswan 2011 earthquake (M = 4.2) derived from recent geodetic GPS data

Due to the importance of Aswan area, Egypt, it has been selected for the present study. Since 1982, after the main shock of November 14, 1981 with M?=?5.6, several study programmes were initiated for monitoring seismicity and crustal movements at Aswan area (Tealeb 1996). Starting from 1997, GPS geodetic networks were established and observed many times in different campaigns. The observations are repeated twice a year. At the beginning of 2012, a moderate earthquake has occurred in the Aswan region with magnitude of 4.2 located at the southwest of the High Dam along Kalabsha fault. Before and after this event, these local geodetic networks were measured using GPS. Regional, Kalabsha-Sayal and Kalabsha networks were used in the present work. GPS data were processed using Bernese 5.0. The collected data before and after this event have shown that the area southwest of the High Dam and Kalabsha area suffered from stress and strain. The behaviour of the areas has changed after earthquake for pre-earthquake.     

Forecasting areas vulnerable to forest conversion using artificial neural network and GIS (case study: northern Ilam forests,Ilam province,Iran)

Forest conversion due to illegal logging and agricultural expansion is a major problem that is hampering biodiversity conservation efforts in the Zagros region. Yet, areas vulnerable to forest conversion are unknown. This study aims to predict the spatial distribution of deforestation in western Iran. Landsat images dated 1988, 2001, and 2007 are classified in order to generate digital deforestation maps which locate deforestation and forest persistence areas. Meanwhile, in order to examine deforestation factors’ investigation, deforestation maps with physiographic and human spatial variables are entered into the model. Areas vulnerable to forest changes in the Zagros forest region are predicted by a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) with a Markov chain model. The results show that about 19,294 ha forest areas are deforested in the last 19 years. The predictive performance of the model appears successful, which is validated using the actual land cover map of the same year from Landsat data. The validated map is found to be 94 % accurate. The validation is also tested using the relative operating characteristic approach which yielded a value of 0.96. The model is then further extended to predict forest cover losses for 2020. The MLPNN approach was found to have a great potential to predict land use/land cover changes because it permits developing complex, nonlinear models.     

Drought risk assessment using remote sensing and GIS techniques

Beginning with a discussion of drought definitions, this review paper attempts to provide a review of fundamental concepts of drought, classification of droughts, drought indices, and the role of remote sensing and geographic information systems for drought evaluation. Owing to the rise in water demand and looming climate change, recent years have witnessed much focus on global drought scenarios. As a natural hazard, drought is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters. An understanding of the relationships between these two sets of parameters is necessary to develop measures for mitigating the impacts of droughts. Droughts are recognized as an environmental disaster and have attracted the attention of environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists, and agricultural scientists. Temperatures; high winds; low relative humidity; and timing and characteristics of rains, including distribution of rainy days during crop growing seasons, intensity, and duration of rain, and onset and termination, play a significant role in the occurrence of droughts. In contrast to aridity, which is a permanent feature of climate and is restricted to low rainfall areas, a drought is a temporary aberration. Often, there is confusion between a heat wave and a drought, and the distinction is emphasized between heat wave and drought, noting that a typical time scale associated with a heat wave is on the order of a week, while a drought may persist for months or even years. The combination of a heat wave and a drought has dire socio-economic consequences. Drought risk is a product of a region’s exposure to the natural hazard and its vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage. If nations and regions are to make progress in reducing the serious consequences of drought, they must improve their understanding of the hazard and the factors that influence vulnerability. It is critical for drought-prone regions to better understand their drought climatology (i.e., the probability of drought at different levels of intensity and duration) and establish comprehensive and integrated drought information system that incorporates climate, soil, and water supply factors such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, snow pack, reservoir and lake levels, ground water levels, and stream flow. All drought-prone nations should develop national drought policies and preparedness plans that place emphasis on risk management rather than following the traditional approach of crisis management, where the emphasis is on reactive, emergency response measures. Crisis management decreases self-reliance and increases dependence on government and donors.     

A new velocity field from the analysis of the Egyptian Permanent GPS Network (EPGN)

For studying recent crustal movements and their relation to earthquake occurrence in large scales, the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Cairo, Egypt started in 2006 the establishment of the Egyptian Permanent GPS Network (EPGN). Beginning with 4 stations in 2007, 15 stations were operational at the end of 2011. In addition, a station in Alexandria of the French “Centre d'Études Alexandrines” (CEALX) was added as station to the EPGN. Nowadays, 16 stations are operational and an extension to 20 in the near future is expected. The collected EPGN data of the last 6 years are used in this work to throw light upon the present state of recent crustal movement of the whole of Egypt. Bernese software V. 5.0 was used for processing the collected data according to the IGS standards. In addition, selected IGS, AFREF, and EPN sites are processed for reference frame definition. In this first comprehensive analysis of the permanent network, a complete and consistent evaluation resulted in the first estimates of present day horizontal velocities and coordinate time series.     

Recurring emergence of the mud islands on shelf of the Arabian Sea along the Makran coast of Pakistan – Historical perspective using remote sensing techniques

Recurring emergences of mud islands on shelf of the Arabian Sea, along the Makran coast of Pakistan are now known to be submarine mud volcanoes. They are expressions of enhanced extrusions of fluidized mud and gases coupled with compressional tectonics in convergent margin settings. Since 1945 the Malan island has emerged four times, and some other mud islands have also been emerging repeatedly, at their own positions.The first known emergence, during November 1945, was concurrent with an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 (M8.0), the 2^nd and 3^rd emergences, in March 1999 and November 2010 respectively, were not related apparently with earthquakes. The 4^th emergence concurred with the Awaran earthquake (M7.7) of 24th September 2013. Landsat images of March 1999 and November 2010 emergences indicate appearance of round-shaped island of 4.4 and 5.2 hectare area, followed by erosion and disappearance. The island was composed of mud breccias and circular vents spewing mud slurry and methane gas.The emergence of Malan island, in March 1999 and November 2010 was compared with earthquake data before and after the emergences. The earthquakes data, two years before March 1999 and November 2010 emergences and two years afterwards, shows correlation with both small and large earthquakes, prior to the emergence, in the radius of over 400 km. It is proposed that mud islands develop in response to the episodes of enhanced mud extrusion, which inturn are related with the enhanced compressional and/or seismic events. These events are followed by periods of relative quiescence characterized by normal activity of mud extrusion and marine erosion.     

Spatial and temporal variations of physicochemical and heavy metal pollution in Ramganga River—a tributary of River Ganges,India

The River Ganges being the most sacred river and lifeline to millions of Indians in serving their water requirements is facing excessive threat of pollution. Under various river management and conservation strategies for its protection, the assessment of water quality of its main tributary Ramganga River is lacking. This study focuses on assessment of physicochemical and heavy metal pollution of the Ramganga River by application of multivariate statistical techniques. Sampling of Ramganga River at sixteen sampling sites was carried out in three seasons (summer, monsoon and winter) of 2014. The collected water samples were analyzed for physicochemical parameters and heavy metals. Results from cluster analysis (CA) of the data divided the whole stretch of the river into three clusters as elevation from 1304 to 259 m as less polluted, from 207 to 154 m as moderately polluted and from elevation 154 to 139 m as high-polluted stretches with anthropogenic as main sources of pollution in high-polluted stretch. Principal component analysis of the seasonal dataset resulted in three significant principal components (PC) in each season explaining 72–8% of total variance with strong loadings (>0.75) of PC1 on fluoride (F^?), chloride (Cl^?), sodium (Na⁺), calcium (Ca²⁺), magnesium (Mg²⁺), bicarbonate (HCO₃ ^?), total dissolved solids and electrical conductivity. Temporal variation by one-way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) showed significant seasonal variation was in the pH, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand, turbidity, HCO₃ ^?, F^?, Zn, cadmium (Cd) and Mn (p < 0.05). Turbidity showed approximately a twofold increase in monsoon season due to rainfall in the catchment area and subsequent flow of runoff into the river. Concentration of HCO₃ ^?, F^? and pH also showed similar increase in monsoon. The concentration of Zn, Cd and Mn showed an increasing trend in summers compared to monsoon and winter season due to dilution effect in the monsoon season and its lasting effect in winters.     

The impact of the geologic setting on the Quaternary aquifer,El-Tur area,Southwest Sinai,Egypt

The groundwater extracted from the unconfined Quaternary aquifer is the main source of water supply in El-Tur area. The area is bounded from the east by the elevated basement complex of Southern Sinai and from the west by El-Qabaliyat Ridge. The wadis dissecting these highlands form effective watersheds of the Quaternary aquifer. These wadis form areas of focused recharge. Recharge also occurs directly via the Quaternary sediments covering El-Qaa Plain. Subsurface lateral groundwater flow from the fractured basement contributes significant recharge to the aquifer as well. The aquifer sediment facies affect the type and quality of groundwater. In the eastern part where the aquifer is composed mainly of gravel and coarse sand with fragments of weathered basement, the Na-Cl-SO₄ water dominates. In the west where the facies change is rapid and complex, many water types arise. The base exchange index (BEX) is positive in this part reflecting the role of clay minerals in changing the water types via cation exchange. In the east where clays are insignificant in the aquifer, the BEX is negative. In the western part next to El-Qabaliyat Ridge, the wells discharging from the calcareous sand zone have low groundwater salinities compared to the wells discharging from the alluvium. In general, the groundwater salinity increases in the direction of groundwater flow from the northeast to the southwest which reflects the dissolution of aquifer sediments. The concentration relationships between the major ions on one hand and chloride on the other reflect the dissolution of calcium carbonates, precipitation of K- and Mg-bearing minerals, and cation exchange of Ca for Na on clay minerals. The hydrochemical models support these reactions. In addition, they show that the effect of evaporation on the recharge water in the western catchment is about four times its effect on the eastern recharge water which reflects the rapid recharge through the wadis draining the fractured basement. Moreover, the contribution from the eastern catchment in sample No. 23 is more than four-folds the contribution from the western recharge area. The stable isotopes (²H and ¹⁸O) show that the Quaternary aquifer is recharging from recent rainfall. However, upward leakage of Paleogene groundwater (depleted in ¹⁸O) also occurs. The groundwater level map shows strong overpumping impact especially in the areas close to El-Tur city.     

Petrography,provenance, diaganesis and depositional environment of Murree Formation in Jhelum Valley,Sub Himalayas,Azad Jammu and Kashmir,Pakistan

The clastic sediments of the Murree Formation of Miocene age are exposed in Jhelum valley areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Pakistan. Field observations revealed the cyclic deposition in the Murree Formation. The sandstone, siltstone, and shale constitute a single cycle within the formation. This single unit is divided into five different lithofacies which constitute the Bouma sequence in the Murree Formation. The Murree Formation shows faulted contacts with Panjal Formation and Nagri Formation in the study area. The modal mineralogy data obtained from the petrography of sandstone indicates that sandstone is litharenite and lithic greywacke. The mineralogical and textural data suggests that sandstone is compositionally mature and poorly to moderately sorted. The dominantly angular to sub angular quartz grains show nearness of the source area. Fractured and sutured quartz grain reveals tectonodiagentic changes that occurred in Murree Formation. The sandstone experienced diagenetic changes. The pressure solution and cementation reduced the primary porosity of sandstone. However, alteration of feldspar and fractures in grains have produced secondary porosity. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) of the shale samples indicates that shale of the Murree Formation is argillaceous and dominated by illite clay mineral. The illite crystallinity values indicate very low grade metamorphism of Murree Formation in core of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis. The petrographic data suggests that the provenance of sandstone is recycled orogen. Quartz is of igneous and metamorphic origin. Feldspar (albite and microcline) composition suggests its derivation from acidic igneous rocks. The rock fragments of volcanics, slate, phyllite, and schist suggest igneous and metamorphic provenance. The petrographic data suggests that at the time of deposition of Murree Formation, igneous and low grade metamorphic rocks were exposed. However, presence of some clasts of carbonates indicates that sedimentary rocks were also exposed in the source region. The quartz content and clay minerals in the shale revealed that source region was igneous and metamorphic rocks. Cyclic deposition, lithofacies, and various sedimentary structures like cross bedding, ripple marks, and calcite concretions suggest that deposition of Murree Formation occurred in fluviatile environment by meandering river system having decreasing turbidity current.