巴基斯坦卡拉奇─海得拉巴区域地震危险性预测

本文讨论了巴基斯坦的地震构造，潜在震源和历史与现代地震活动性，并在此基础上使用确定性和概率性两种方法计算了各发震断层５０年内最大可能的地震在卡拉奇和海得拉巴两城市将引起的地面峰值加速度以及５０年内超越概率为１４％的等加速度区划图。     

Community perception and participation,prospects in management of forests in marginal lands of Sudan

Fuelwood Development for Energy in Sudan project (GCP/SUD/033/NET) is undertaking research to formulate management plans for Sudan ecologically marginal forests. Rawashda and Wad Kabu forests are taken as examples to initiate sound plans. It is believed that the study of socio-economic parameters of forests users is an essential component to achieve such plan. This study is also fundamental for attaining an integrated land use system, as a prime option of natural resource use. This study is, consequently, aiming at:

1. Providing the base line information of the different communities identified in Tab 3 and using the two forests.
2. Examine people's attitude, perception, participation options in maintenance and management of the two forests. Such parameters are also vital for adoption of an integrated land use strategy in the future.
3. Based on (i) and (ii) to outline broadly the most relevant plan of management land use strategy to be adopted, based on community self-generated options of institutions and objectives of use.

The main findings in this context can be summarized in the following:

1. A complex pattern of economic activities (Tab 3) ranging from pure pastoral nomadism to modern mechanized farming, still characterized by combination of related activities of agricultural/livestock breeding, agriculture/forest resource use, etc. This diversity in activities, which is mostly dependent on the natural resource base, gives a sound base for any option of an integrated land use system.
2. Perception and attitude analysis have revealed a growing awareness of the role of the forest resources in the economy as source of grazing, domestic needs and source of income. This awareness is supported by willingness to participate in any integrated land use plan, yet from a different stand point and objective. Preference of self-generated channels is quite evident, but with a specified role of the government.
3. The major finding is that, and among all communities, the situation is mature for action, although at different levels.

Therefore, each community could be approached along relevant lines of action, as an initial phase before attaining a comprehensive land use plan. On-farm trials (OFTs) or in-herd trials seem to be more relevant compared with expert controlled trials. Any plan of action needs to be preceded by revision of present land tenure systems, establishing grass-root institutions, reorientation of concerned government departments, intensive extension programme and careful formulation of projects, execution and follow-up plans. Such steps need to be geared to narrow the ‘Perception gap’ of development between participants or users and planners.     

Water supply problems in the Butana region-central Sudan with special emphasis on Jebel Qeili area

The Butana region of central Sudan is famous for its animal wealth and extensive pastures. Yet scarcity of water resources in the area especially during the dry seasons handicaps the proper utilization of these pastures. The area is occupied by non-water-bearing basement rocks and the only source of water is from direct run-off. Thus large numbers of small-size water reservoirs, haffirs, were constructed, but these are inadequate to provide enough water for the growing human and animal population. An all-year lake is here proposed to be constructed utilizing the ring-structure the Jebel Qeili igneous complex, central Butana. This lake is expected to solve the present water problem and meet the future demand of central Butana at the present rate of human and animal growth.     

Precambrian phosphorites in the Bijawar rocks of Hirapur-Bassia areas,sagar district,madhya pradesh,India

The Precambrian phosphorites of Bijawar Group of rocks show characteristics of a epicontinental sea with restricted and very shallow marine environment of formation along some shoals, which existed during the iron-rich Precambrian times. These phosphorite deposits located in the Hirapur-Bassia areas show extensive leaching of carbonate and phosphate minerals during episodes of weathering. X-ray diffraction studies indicated that carbonate-flourapatite is the major apatitic phase in these phosphorites while crandallite developed on the surface outcrops. There is a general tendency for the depletion of CO₂ in these apatites leading to formation of flourapatite. This CO₂ is an indicator of hidden weathering in the rocks. Major and trace element determinations of phosphorite have been used to indicate various correlation factors responsible for the concentration of elements in these Precambrian leached phosphorites.The paper is a contribution to the aims and objectives of IGCP Project 156The paper is dedicated to Prof. Dr. R. C. Misra, who as a teacher and guide had been a source of inspiration to the senior author for the last two decades     

Accuracy of the earth's gravity field models

Accuracy tests on the most recent GEM (Goddard Earth Model) gravity models for the representation of the Earth's gravity field, using specially devised statistical techniques of comparative evaluation, show that there is steady improvement in these models with time. On this comparative basis, the accuracy of determination for the spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth's gravity field is ～ 100% for n = 2–6, 90–99% for n = 7–10, 55–80% for n = 11–14 and ? 50% for n ? 15, deteriorating rapidly with increasing n. The higher degree coefficients corresponding to n ≥ 15 do not seem to be determined accurately enough to be useful from a geophysical standpoint, though their cumulative contribution is undoubtedly useful for specific orbital computations. The estimated errors are 0.3 mGal for n = 2–6, 1.5 mgal for the frequency range n = 2–10, 3 mGal for n = 2–14 and 5–6 mGal for n = 2–22. These error estimates, especially the ones for the higher frequency range, may have been affected by possible errors in the comparison standards used for this evaluation. Consequently, some of the higher degree coefficients of recent GEM models may be more accurate than predicted by these tests.Due to the inherent deficiency of the comparison standards, the errors given in this paper should be treated as error estimates. The steady and progressive improvement, shown by the various GEM gravity models when tested against comparison standards 10E and WGS 72, i.e. the more recent a gravity model, the better it tests against the comparison standards in contrast to its predecessors, is remarkable, as the comparison standards themselves are several years older than the gravity models tested here. This clearly validates our choice of comparison standards, as well as the premises and predictions of our evaluation techniques. It also demonstrates the power and potential of these techniques, which only seem to be limited by the level of accuracy of the available standard of comparison.     

Levels of organochlorine pesticide residues in some organs of the Ganges perch, Lates calcarifer, from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Estuary, Bangladesh

Levels of organochlorine pesticide residues (p,p′ DDT, DDD, DDE, Aldrin, Dieldrin, Lindane, Heptachlor and BHC) were analysed in the dry and wet seasons in four organs (muscle, liver, gut and egg samples) of Ganges Perch, Lates calcarifer, collected during October–November–December, 1996 and May–June–July, 1997 from the Ganges–Brahmaputtra–Meghna estuary. The residues were analysed by using gas-chromatography (GC) in electron capture detector (ECD) mode and were verified by thin layer chromatography (TLC). Among the four organs analysed, the residues were found in the order egg > gut > muscle > liver. The pesticide residues were found in the order ∑DDT > Heptachlor >Dieldrin > Aldrin. Higher levels of residues were found during the dry season due to high lipid content in fishes. A positive correlation was observed between the pesticide residues (∑DDT and ∑OCs) and lipid contents of fish, and the correlation was found to be linear. The concentrations of pesticide residues in muscle, liver and gut were below the FAO/WHO (1993) recommended permissible limit except in eggs.     

Growth, ionic and osmotic relations of an Allenrolfea occidentalis population in an inland salt playa of the Great Basin Desert

Variation in growth, physiology and ionic relations patterns of Allenrolfea occidentalis, a perennial halophyte of dry habitats, was studied under field conditions from May 1996 to November 1997. An A. occidentalis community has a characteristic soil pH of 7·3–8·3. During the two years, the population was exposed to great variations in soil salinity, from 29 to 146 dS m⁻¹, and soil moisture, ranging from drought (9·2%) to wet (19%). The salt concentrations were significantly higher in the surface soil layers than in the subsurface layers. Seasonal changes in dry weight are directly related to soil salinity stress. Allenrolfea occidentalis had greater growth and biomass production under saline conditions. Na⁺and Cl⁻ions were accumulated in plant tissues in much greater amounts than K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺. Soil salinities were significantly reduced at the end of the growing season. Water potentials of the shoots decreased significantly with increasing salinity. The plant (F_v/F_mratio) was more affected by salinity and irradiation levels during the summer period.     

Factors affecting sediment trapping in vegetated filter strips: simulation study using VFSMOD

Soil and water conservation practices have been promoted for a long time, in order to sustain agricultural activities and prevent environmental pollution. Vegetated filter strips (VFS) have been used to reduce sediment pollution into water bodies at or near the pollutant source. However, factors effecting VFS performance under natural conditions have not been well understood owing to the physical, time and financial limitations of field experiments. The use of well‐validated simulation models to understand the performance of VFS and factors affecting sediment deposition is highly justified. The objective of this research is to investigate sediment trapping in VFS and to study various factors affecting VFS performance using the simulation model VFSMOD, which was developed by researchers at University of North Carolina. Recently, VFSMOD has been validated successfully by using 21 filters with varying length, slope and vegetated cover. A wide range of five parameters was selected for the simulations, namely filter length, filter slope, manning roughness coefficient, soil type and characteristics of incoming sediment from adjacent fields. Computer simulations revealed that the length of filter is the most significant factor affecting sediment trapping in VFS. The relative increase in trapping efficiencies was not linearly related to an increase in filter length. Inflow sediment class also has a major influence on sediment trapping in VFS. The trapping efficiency of clay sediments in a 15 m length VFS was 47% compared with 92% for silt from incoming sediment. Manning roughness coefficient had a moderate effect on sediment trapping and was more significant in short filters. Land slope and soil type of VFS had a minor influence on the performance of VFS. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wave propagation through ionospheric plasma in presence of time-varying random irregularities

Summary The dielectric tensor of a time-varying anisotropic electron-plasma has been studied with the consideration of the effect of collision. The tripple splitting of the electromagnetic waves is obtained from the dispersion relation which gives the two usual magnetoionic modes in the limiting case. The randomness of electron number density has been evaluated by the help of field variables and also by the nature of fluctuation of dielectric tensor.