Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.     

Harmonic by harmonic removal technique for improving vibroseis data quality

In this paper, an improved method is presented to reduce vibrator harmonic distortion, one harmonic at a time and the method is illustrated with both simulated and field data. This method improves on the previous method that treated all the harmonics at once. The significant contribution in this procedure is a considerable reduction for the harmonics without any alteration for the weakest signals possibly present in positive and negative times. The core of the proposed technique depends on an accurate simulation for all the harmonics one by one existing in the positive and negative times of the data after cross‐correlation with the fundamental sweep and then subtracting the simulated harmonics from the original data using an optimization procedure. The steps and mathematical equations of the procedure are explained in detail in the body of the article in the section titled ‘harmonic by harmonic attenuation procedure’. Accordingly, a well‐developed procedure for enhancing the vibroseis data quality in both down‐ and up‐sweep data is illustrated. The procedure was tested on both synthetic and field data sets.     

Relativistic and the first sectorial harmonics corrections in the critical inclination

The problem of the critical inclination is treated in the Hamiltonian framework taking into consideration post-Newtonian corrections as well as the main correction term of sectorial harmonics for an earth-like planet. The Hamiltonian is expressed in terms of Delaunay canonical variables. A canonical transformation is applied to eliminate short period terms. A modified critical inclination is obtained due to relativistic and the first sectorial harmonics corrections.     

Opposite polarity dusty plasma expansion in Earth’s mesosphere

The self-similar expansion method is applied on the fluid system of equations which describes a plasma system consisting of opposite polarity dust grains, positive ions and electrons. The resultant system of equations is solved numerically to study the properties of the plasma expansion of this system. It is found that the presence of the second species of the dust has a great effect on the properties of the expansion of the other species.     

Tonian–Ediacaran Tectonometamorphic History of the Sa’al Complex, Sinai (Egypt): Implications for the Tectonostratigraphic Framework of the Northern Arabian–Nubian Shield

The Sa''al Metamorphic Complex (SMC; southern Sinai) encompasses the oldest arc rocks in the Arabian–Nubian Shield, comprising two non-consanguineous metavolcanic successions (the Agramiya Group and the Post-Ra''ayan Formation) separated by the metasediments of the Ra''ayan Formation. It experienced three distinct deformational events (D1–D3) and two low-medium grade regional metamorphic events (M1–M2). The Agramiya Group and the Ra''ayan Formation experienced all tectonometamorphic events (D1–D3 and M1–M2), whereas the Post-Ra''ayan volcanic rocks were only affected by the D3 and M2 events. D1 is an extensional event and is connected to the late Rodinia break-up (~Tonian; 900–870 Ma). The M1 metamorphism variably affected the older Agramiya Group, the rhyolitic tuffs experiencing lower to upper greenschist facies conditions and the basic and intermediate volcanic rocks undergoing amphibolite facies metamorphism. The Ra''ayan Formation metasediments experienced upper greenschist to amphibolite facies metamorphism. The upper greenschist facies M2 affected the youngest Post-Ra''ayan volcanic rocks and other stratigraphic successions. The compressive D2 and D3 events were coeval with the accretion of dismembered terranes in the assembly of Gondwana. D2 can be linked to the Tonian–Cryogenian arc-arc assembly (~880–760 Ma; in Elat and Sinai), whereas D3 and the accompanying M2 is constrained to 622–600 Ma (Ediacaran).     

Gradient-based Pareto optimal history matching for noisy data of multiple types

The advantages of the simultaneous integration of production and time-lapse seismic data for history matching have been demonstrated in a number of previous studies. Production data provide accurate observations at particular spatial locations (wells), while seismic data enable global, though filtered/noisy, estimates of state variables. In this work, we present an efficient computational tool for bi-objective history matching, in which data misfits for both production and seismic measurements are minimized using an adjoint-gradient approach. This enables us to obtain a set of Pareto optimal solutions defining the optimal trade-off between production and seismic data misfits (which are, to some extent, conflicting). The impact of noise structure and noise level on Pareto optimal solutions is investigated in detail. We discuss the existence of the “best” trade-off solution, or least-conflicting posterior model, which corresponds to the history-matched model that is expected to provide the least-conflicting forecast of future reservoir performance. The overall framework is successfully applied in 2D and 3D compositional simulation problems to provide a single least-conflicting posterior model and, for the 2D case, multiple samples from the posterior distribution using the randomized maximum likelihood method.     

On the potential of Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse models for simulating rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

Abstract

The applicability of two versions of the Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse model, the original and the modified model, is discussed for describing the temporal and spatial variation of rainfall patterns observed at 15 raingauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1971–2008; 17 different sets of moment combinations are fitted to these models based on the generalized method of moments approach. The common statistics included in all sets are the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and the probability of dry based on the hourly rainfall data. The analysis was carried out on hourly rainfall data from all 15 stations for all months of the year. Two stations, Petaling Jaya and Kemaman, located on the west and east coasts of the Peninsula, respectively, are considered for illustration of the results, taking the months of July and November, which correspond to the driest and wettest months, corresponding to the southwest monsoon (May–August) and northeast monsoon (November–February), respectively. The best moment combination found for the illustrative results is based on the common statistics, as well as the mean and variance based on 24-h aggregated rainfall data, the inclusion of which successfully improved the model performance; the errors were significantly reduced. It was also found that the performance of the fitted models based on the mean absolute deviate error varies according to the type of Bartlett Lewis model applied: errors are much smaller for the fitted model based on the modified model as compared to the original model. In addition, the fitted statistics: mean, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of dry are quite well fitted for several aggregated time scales; however, the variances are underestimated in both models for all aggregated time scales, particularly in the case of the original model. The results of extreme value analysis indicate that the modified model failed to reproduce the annual hourly and daily rainfall extremes satisfactorily.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Hanaish, I.S., Ibrahim, K., and Jemain, A.A., 2013. On the potential of Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse models for simulating rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1690–1703.     

Testing the validity of detrital zircon chemistry as a provenance indicator

Zircon grains from the Nile Delta beach sediments were mineralogically investigated for their provenance perspective. Electron microprobe backscattered electron images, and wavelength dispersive spectroscopy line scans showed well-developed oscillatory and sector zoning in the majority of the studied zircon grains. In addition, some grains showed inclusions represented mainly by apatite. The zoning in zircon reflects compositional variations of Zr, Si, Hf, P, Y, and rare earth elements (REE). Based on the electron probe microanalyzer data, the calculated formula of the studied detrital zircon is ^A(Zr_3.82Hf_0.05Th_0.003Ca_0.10Fe_0.008REE_0.033Tl_0.03Y_0.001)∑_4.04 ^T(Si_3.90P_0.08Al_0.011V_0.003Sc_0.004)∑_4.00O₄. Th, Y, P, Sc, and Fe are substituted into zircon either by simple or coupled substitution mechanisms. Additional zircon grains separated from Abu Swayel granites and metamorphic gneisses, south Eastern Desert of Egypt were similarly investigated for comparison. Although evidence based on morphological characteristics, zoning, apatite inclusions, and mineral chemistry supports a derivation of zircon from granitic rocks including the hydrothermally altered varieties, the possibility that the zircon grains may have more than one source cannot be ruled out due to the large area of the Nile watershed.