Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Effect of chemical affinity on feldspar hydrolysis rates in two natural weathering systems

Recent studies of alkali-feldspar hydrolysis kinetics have shown that, in the near-neutral pH range, weathering rates in natural systems are up to three orders of magnitude slower than laboratory rates. It has been hypothesized that decelerated rates may result from lower thermodynamic affinities for the hydrolysis reaction in natural systems than in laboratory systems. However, the chemical affinities for the feldspar hydrolysis reaction in two well-constrained natural systems are significantly higher than the threshold value at which affinity would exert detectable influences on the reaction rates. Thus, the hypothesis is rejected, and closer proximity to thermodynamic equilibrium in natural weathering systems does not account for the observed discrepancy between natural and laboratory rates of feldspar hydrolysis. Differences in feldspar weathering rates between natural and laboratory systems are most likely due to a combination of experimental preparation artifacts, loss of reactive surface to the formation of etch pits in naturally weathered feldspars, and inhomogeneous access of reactive fluids to those surfaces.     

Seismic interaction at separation joints of an instrumented concrete bridge

A multi-span, curved, concrete box-girder bridge has been extensively instrumented by the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP) in cooperation with the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). On 28 June 1992, the bridge was shaken by the magnitude 7–5 Landers and magnitude 6–6 Big Bear earthquakes in southern California. The epicentres of these earthquakes were 50 and 29 miles (81 and 46 km) from the bridge, respectively. All 34 strong-motion sensors installed on the bridge recorded the response to these earthquakes and provided an insightful set of data. A striking aspect of the response is the presence of intermittent sharp spikes in nearly all of the acceleration records from sensors at the deck of the bridge. Among these the highest spike was 0.8g for the Landers and 1.0g for the Big Bear earthquake. The peak ground acceleration at the bridge site was only about 0.1g for both these earthquakes. With the aid of visual examination and simple analysis it is deduced that (1) the spikes were caused by forces generated at separation joints by impacts and stretching of the cable restrainers between adjacent bridge segments; (2) the forces of impacts and cable stretching are directly proportional to the size of the spikes and can be estimated by the use of a simple formula; and (3) the spikes travelled from their source to other locations on the bridge with the velocity of a compression wave propagating through concrete.     

High-Mg potassic rocks from Taiwan: implications for the genesis of orogenic potassic lavas

Taiwan is an active mountain belt formed by oblique collision between the Luzon arc and the Asian continent. Regardless of the ongoing collision in central and southern Taiwan, a post-collisional extension regime has developed since the Plio–Pleistocene in the northern part of this orogen, and led to generation of the Northern Taiwan Volcanic Zone. Emplaced at 0.2 Ma in the southwest of the Volcanic Zone, lavas from the Tsaolingshan volcano are highly magnesian (MgO≈15 wt.%) and potassic (K₂O≈5 wt.%; K₂O/Na₂O≈1.6–3.0). Whereas these basic rocks (SiO₂≈48 wt.%) have relatively low Al₂O₃≈12 wt.%, total Fe₂O₃≈7.5 wt.% and CaO≈7.2 wt.%, they are extremely enriched in large ion lithophile elements (LILE, e.g. Cs, Rb, Ba, Th and U). The Rb and Cs abundances, >1000 and 120 ppm, respectively, are among the highest known from terrestrial rocks. In addition, these rocks are enriched in light rare earth elements (LREE), depleted in high field strength elements (HFSE), and display a positive Pb spike in the primitive mantle-normalized variation diagram. Their REE distribution patterns mark with slight Eu negative anomalies (Eu/Eu*≈0.90–0.84), and Sr and Nd isotope ratios are uniform (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr≈0.70540–0.70551; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd≈0.51268–0.51259). Olivine, the major phenocryst phase, shows high Fo contents (90.4±1.8; 1σ deviation), which are in agreement with the whole rock Mg-values (83–80). Spinel inclusions in olivine are characterized by high Cr/Cr+Al ratios (0.94–0.82) and have compositions similar to those from boninites that originate from highly refractory peridotites. Such petrochemical characteristics are comparable to the Group I ultrapotassic rocks defined by Foley et al. [Earth-Sci. Rev. 24 (1987) 81], such as orogenic lamproites from central Italy, Span and Tibet. We therefore suggest that the Tsaolingshan lavas resulted from a phlogopite-bearing harzburgitic source in the lithospheric mantle that underwent a recent metasomatism by the nearby Ryukyu subduction zone processes. The lavas exhibit unique incompatible trace element ratios, with Rb/Cs≈8, Ba/Rb≈1, Ce/Pb≈2, Th/U≈1 and Nb/U≈0.8, which are significantly lower than the continental crust values and those of most mantle-derived magmas. Nonmagmatic enrichment in the mantle source is therefore required. Based on published experimental data, two subduction-related metasomatic components, i.e., slab-released hydrous fluid and subducted sediment, are proposed, and the former is considered to be more pervasive for causing the extraordinary trace element ratios observed. Our observations lend support to the notion that dehydration from subducting slabs at convergent margins, as a continuing process through geologic time, can account for the fractionation of these elemental pairs between the Earth's crust and mantle.     

The relationship between geothermal gradient and the composition of granitic magmas in orogenic belts

A comparison has been made between the average compositions of the granites in the Variscan, Caledonian, and Alpine orogenic belts of western Europe. Their respective compositions lie near the isobaric minima in the system Q-Or-Ab-H₂O for successively higher water pressures, whereas metamorphic facies series indicate that the three orogenic belts developed under successively lower geothermal gradients. These relationships are consistent with an origin of the granitic magmas by partial melting in the crust.     

Finite element models for rock fracture mechanics

A finite element model for the prediction of discrete fracture propagation in rock structures loaded in compression is presented. The model integrates any one of three theories for mixed-mode fracture initiation; it contains an energy balance algorithm for predicting crack increment length, and incorporates recent developments in finite element stress-intensity factor computation. The predictions of the model are compared with the observed fracture response of a real rock structure. Results show that the model accurately predicts both stable and unstable fracture progagations observed experimentally.