On the possible hazard on the major cities caused by asteroid impact in the Pacific ocean

Semi-quantitative investigation is made of hazard expected from an asteroidal impact in the Pacific. An impact ofd (diameter) = 200 m asteroid has a probability of hitting somewhere in the Pacific once in 15000 y. By carrying out a Monte Carlo simulation, such an impact, on average, is shown to create a tsunami as high as 16, 14, 15, and 21 m at Japan, Taiwan, Shanghai and Hawaii, respectively. Wooden houses, stone and brick houses, and reinforced concrete buildings are likely to be demolished by tsunamis of height 2, 7 and 20 m respectively. Thus, there is a probability of 1% or so that most of the artificial constructions on the coast lines of the Pacific be destroyed in the next century by an asteroidal impact.     

Spread <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> in the Midlatitude Ionosphere According to DPS-4 Ionosonde Data

The results of studying spread F obtained from the DPS-4 ionosonde data at the observatory of the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (Moscow) are presented. The methodical questions that arise during the study of a spread F phenomenon in the ionosphere are considered; the current results of terrestrial observations are compared with previously published data and the results of sounding onboard an Earth-satellite vehicle. The automated algorithm for estimation of the intensity of frequency spread F, which was developed by the authors and was successfully verified via comparison of the data of the digisonde DPS-4 and the results of manual processing, is described. The algorithm makes it possible to quantify the intensity of spread F in megahertz (the dFs parameter) and in the number of points (0, 1, 2, 3). The strongest spread (3 points) is shown to be most likely around midnight, while the weakest spread (0 points) is highly likely to occur during the daytime. The diurnal distribution of a 1–2 point spread F in the winter indicates the presence of additional maxima at 0300–0600 UT and 1400–1700 UT, which may appear due to the terminator. Despite the large volume of processed data, we can not definitively state that the appearance of spread F depends on the magnetic activity indices Kp, Dst, and AL, although the values of the dFs frequency spread interval strongly increased both at day and night during the magnetic storm of March 17–22, 2015, especially in the phase of storm recovery on March 20–22.     

Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.     

Fire Severity,Water Repellency Characteristics and Hydrogeomorphological Changes Following the Christmas 2001 Sydney Forest Fires

Soil water repellency can enhance overland flow and erosion and may be altered by fire. The Christmas 2001 bushfires near Sydney allowed investigation of the relationship between fire severity, water repellency and hydrogeomorphological changes. For two sub-catchments with differences in fire severities in Nattai National Park, south-west of Sydney, this paper considers: (1) the links between fire severity based on SPOT image analysis and ground observation of fire severity and repellency; (2) the textural and organic/minerogenic characteristics of eroded sediment; and (3) erodibility, erosion and deposition of soils in both catchments. Ground surveys show that image analysis reflects well the degree of vegetation consumption by fire, but cannot adequately predict the degree of ground litter consumption, associated soil heating and repellency effects. Fire had varying effects on repellency, leaving it unchanged, destroying it or enhancing it, depending on the soil temperature reached. The main post-fire hydrogeomorphological changes have been widespread erosion and colluvial and alluvial deposition of topsoil in foot-slope locations and river systems, but only localised redistribution of the highly erodible, repellent sandy subsurface layer. The fire did not trigger major geomorphological change in the study area, but fires probably cause important topsoil and nutrient depletion and may also affect water quality.     

Study on uncertainty of inversion and resolution limit in the presence of noise

This study analyzed the uncertainty of inversion and the resolution limit in the presence of noise by means of statistical experiments. The exhaustive method is adopted to obtain the global optimal solution in each experiment. We found that even with small level of noise, solutions fluctuate in a large range for the thin bed. The distribution of solutions in the presence of noise is closely related to the spread of the cost function in the absence of noise. As a result, the area of a certain neighborhood around the true solution on the spread of the cost function in the absence of noise is used to evaluate the uncertainty of inversion and the resolution limit in the presence of noise. In the case that the SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) is 5 in this study, solutions focus around the true solution with a very small uncertainty only when the bed thickness is greater than the reciprocal of the double predominant frequency of the convoluting wavelet.     

An inter-comparison of tidal solutions computed with a range of unstructured grid models of the Irish and Celtic Sea Regions

Three finite element codes, namely TELEMAC, ADCIRC and QUODDY, are used to compute the spatial distributions of the M₂, M₄ and M₆ components of the tide in the sea region off the west coast of Britain. This region is chosen because there is an accurate topographic dataset in the area and detailed open boundary M₂ tidal forcing for driving the model. In addition, accurate solutions (based upon comparisons with extensive observations) using uniform grid finite difference models forced with these open boundary data exist for comparison purposes. By using boundary forcing, bottom topography and bottom drag coefficients identical to those used in an earlier finite difference model, there is no danger of comparing finite element solutions for “untuned unoptimised solutions” with those from a “tuned optimised solution”. In addition, by placing the open boundary in all finite element calculations at the same location as that used in a previous finite difference model and using the same M₂ tidal boundary forcing and water depths, a like with like comparison of solutions derived with the various finite element models was possible. In addition, this open boundary was well removed from the shallow water region, namely the eastern Irish Sea where the higher harmonics were generated. Since these are not included in the open boundary, forcing their generation was determined by physical processes within the models. Consequently, an inter-comparison of these higher harmonics generated by the various finite element codes gives some indication of the degree of variability in the solution particularly in coastal regions from one finite element model to another. Initial calculations using high-resolution near-shore topography in the eastern Irish Sea and including “wetting and drying” showed that M₂ tidal amplitudes and phases in the region computed with TELEMAC were in good agreement with observations. The ADCIRC code gave amplitudes about 30 cm lower and phases about 8° higher. For the M₄ tide, in the eastern Irish Sea amplitudes computed with TELEMAC were about 4 cm higher than ADCIRC on average, with phase differences of order 5°. For the M₆ component, amplitudes and phases showed significant small-scale variability in the eastern Irish Sea, and no clear bias between the models could be found. Although setting a minimum water depth of 5 m in the near-shore region, hence removing wetting and drying, reduced the small-scale variability in the models, the differences in M₂ and M₄ tide between models remained. For M₆, a significant reduction in variability occurred in the eastern Irish Sea when a minimum 5-m water depth was specified. In this case, TELEMAC gave amplitudes that were 1 cm higher and phases 30° lower than ADCIRC on average. For QUODDY in the eastern Irish Sea, average M₂ tidal amplitudes were about 10 cm higher and phase 8° higher than those computed with TELEMAC. For M₄, amplitudes were approximately 2 cm higher with phases of order 15° higher in the northern part of the region and 15° lower in the southern part. For M₆ in the north of the region, amplitudes were 2 cm higher and about 2 cm lower in the south. Very rapid M₆ tidal-phase changes occurred in the near-shore regions. The lessons learned from this model inter-comparison study are summarised in the final section of the paper. In addition, the problems of performing a detailed model–model inter-comparison are discussed, as are the enormous difficulties of conducting a true model skill assessment that would require detailed measurements of tidal boundary forcing, near-shore topography and precise knowledge of bed types and bed forms. Such data are at present not available.     

Dynamics of intrafault deformation waves: Results of physical simulation

Doklady Earth Sciences - Physical simulation of how a large shear zone forms in terms of an elastic-viscoplastic model of the lithosphere is conducted, and computer processing of the obtained photo...     

Retrospective Assessment of Bottom Deposits in Kondopoga Bay,Lake Onega

Long-term observations of the chemical composition of bottom sediments in Kondopoga Bay, Lake Onega, are considered. The present-day state of bottom sediments is characterized, and regularities of variations in the composition and properties of sediments occurring in the zone of influence of wastewaters from a pulp and paper plant (PPP).