地气耦合非定常距平模式的准业务预报试验

本文用地气耦合非定常距平模式对1988年1—12月北半球100 hPa、500 hPa、海平面气压和地面温度的月距平场进行了为期一年的逐月30天预报准业务试验。结果表明，模式对月距平场距平符号的趋势预报以100 hPa效果最好，海平面气压较差；模式对500 hPa、地面温度的月距平场预报优于持续性预报，表明该模式对距平场形势有一定的预报能力。试验结果还表明，模式预报在中低纬优于中高纬；但对不同层次、不同月份的预报效果不够稳定，而且对低值系统预报能力较差。模式的一个突出问题是预报场空间过份平滑，尚须作进一步试验、改进。     

100hPa南亚高压位置特征与我国盛夏降水

本文使用1961—1988年的资料,分析了7—8月100hPa南亚高压东伸指数和脊线指数在不同配置下我国夏季降水分布的特征;着重分析了可能影响南亚高压东伸指数和脊线指数异常的因子及其对厄尔尼诺事件的响应。通过对南亚高压东伸指数和脊线指数的预报确定7—8月南亚高压的特征型,从而进一步估计我国盛夏降水的分布。     

100毫巴和500毫巴月平均高度场与我国夏季降水关系的对比分析

本文利用1956—1982年北半球100毫巴和500毫巴月平均高度资料,计算分析了我国夏季降水与前期9月到同期8月二层高度场的相关关系,对比对流层中层和高层平均环流形势与我国天气的关系。分析表明,100毫巴和500毫巴月平均高度场与我国夏季降水的相关关系,在时空分布上有着基本的共同性,同时又有各自不同的相关特点。这些分析结果,在长期天气预报工作中有一定的参考作用。     

1997年北半球大气环流特征及其影响

１９９７年北半球主要环流特征为：５００ｈＰａ西太平洋副热带高压盛夏由弱转强、西伸明显、脊线位置偏北;亚洲中纬度经、纬向环流交替出现,纬向环流盛行,春、秋季经向环流加强,冬、夏季冷空气异常偏弱;盛夏南海季风增强,印度季风偏弱;赤道辐合带偏弱。北半球１００ｈＰａ中低纬度位势高度持续偏高,南亚高压东扩明显;热带海洋出现异常,一次新的厄尔尼诺事件发生,强度大、发展快。在ＥＮＳＯ和大气环流的共同影响下我国天     

El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季增强型和减弱型及其对中国夏季旱涝的影响

根据El Ni?o和La Ni?a发生以后冬季赤道东太平洋海温距平的月际差定义了El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季增强型和冬季减弱型, 讨论了El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季增强型和减弱型冬、春、夏季大气环流、东亚季风及我国夏季降水和旱涝分布的特征.我国夏季降水和旱涝有明显差异的四种不同分布型可能与冬季所处ENSO循环的不同阶段以及大气环流和东亚季风对它的不同响应有关.提出了从El Ni?o和La Ni?a冬季不同型→大气环流和东亚季风→我国夏季降水和旱涝分布型的物理统计概念模型.     

海浪区湍流通量的涡度协方差观测

Turbulent eddies play a critical role in oceanic flows. Direct measurements of turbulent eddy fluxes beneath the sea surface were taken to study the direction of flux-carrying eddies as a means of supplementing our understanding of vertical fluxes exchange processes and their relationship to tides. The observations were made at 32 Hz at a water depth of ~1.5 m near the coast of Sanya, China, using an eddy covariance system, which mainly consists of an acoustic doppler velocimeter(ADV) and a fast temperature sensor. The cospectra-fit method-an established semi-empirical model of boundary layer turbulence to the measured turbulent cospectra at frequencies below those of surface gravity waves-was used in the presence of surface gravity waves to quantify the turbulent eddy fluxes(including turbulent heat flux and Reynolds stress). As much as 87% of the total turbulent stress and 88% of the total turbulent heat flux were determined as being at band frequencies below those of surface gravity waves. Both the turbulent heat flux and Reynolds stress showed a daily successive variation;the former peaked during the low tide period and the later peaked during the ebb tide period.Estimation of roll-off wavenumbers, k0, and roll-off wavelengths, λ0(where λ0=2π/k0), which were estimated as the horizontal length scales of the dominant flux-carrying turbulent eddies, indicated that the λ0 of the turbulent heat flux was approximately double that of the Reynolds stress. Wavelet analysis showed that both the turbulent heat flux and the Reynolds stress have a close relationship to the semi-diurnal and diurnal tides, and therefore indicate the energy that is transported from tides to turbulence.     

西沙海域内潮与近惯性内波的相互作用

通过使用西沙海域锚定潜标的测流数据,分析了距浣熊台风路径100 km处海流受浣熊台风影响前后的动能谱、旋转谱和流剪切谱,从而阐明近惯性波,以及近惯性波与全日内潮波的相互作用机制.台风浣熊之后所引起的近惯性波主要在上250 m较强,其能量是普通风场所引起的40倍.近惯性波的能量向下传播至450 m左右,与此同时,强的近惯性流的剪切驱动着惯性波与全日内潮波之间的相互作用,从而产生强的近惯性波与全日内波的耦合波(f+D₁).此三波耦合机制为Davies的波波相互作用理论提供了观测依据,同时,近惯性内波与全日内潮波之间的非线性相互作用,揭示了南海近惯性波能量耗散的一种机制.     

南海中部上层海洋湍流混合的空间分布特征及参数化模型

通过对2010年5月南海16°N和14.5°N断面的湍流微结构剖面观测资料分析,给出了南海海盆上层湍流混合空间分布特征:在16°N断面上,上层10~400m垂向平均湍动能耗散率ερ在东侧略大于西侧;相反,在14.5°N断面上,西侧ερ均值约是东侧ερ的4倍,其中,西侧110.5°~111°E的ερ的平均值为2.6×10-6 W/m3,东侧118.5°E的ερ仅为5.89×10-7 W/m3。通过分析细结构剪切和湍流混合的相关性,发现剪切是南海中部上层强湍流混合的主要驱动力,揭示了高模态内波破碎可能是湍流混合的主要机制。另外,研究了大洋中的3种参数化模型,发现适用于大洋近海的参数化MacKinnon-Gregg(MG)模型能较好地用浮频和剪切估算南海中部深海区上层湍流耗散率。     

南海北部陆坡区内孤立波的垂向热量输送

An integrated analysis of internal solitary wave(ISW) observations obtained from two moorings over the continental slope in the northern South China Sea(SCS) leads to an assessment of the vertical heat transport of the ISWs. The clusters of ISW packets are phase-locked to the fortnightly cycle of the semidiurnal tide. The ISWs appear during large semidiurnal tides, and there is a period of 5–6 d when no ISWs are observed. The effect of the ISWs on the continental slope heat budget is observed. The ISWs can modify a local temperature field in which the temperature in the upper layer can be changed by O(100) °C after the ISWs passed the mooring. Both ISWinduced diffusion and ISW-induced advection contribute to the temperature variation. The estimates imply an average vertical heat flux of 0.01 to 0.1 MW/m~2 in the ISWs in the upper 500 m of the water column. The vertical heat transport ranges from 0.56 to 2.83 GJ/m~2 with a mean value of 1.63 GJ/m~2. The observations suggest that the vertical heat transport is proportional to the maximum vertical displacement.