青藏高原土壤热交换的计算方案及初步分析

从地温满足的热传导方程出发,导出了计算土壤平均和瞬时热通量的计算方案。该计算方案可同时计算出土壤热通量随时间和随深度的变化。它利用整层的地温信息来计算任一层的热通量,这种方案克服了用差分方案进行直接计算的局限性。然后使用中日亚洲季风观测实验期间的地温自动观测站资料和相应的常规观测资料,计算了青藏高原上土壤热通量及其变化,结果表明,不论是常规观测站还是自动观测站,其结果与青藏高原第一次观测实验所用热流板的直接观测结果是相近的,因而这种计算方案是实用而有效的。     

VARIATIONS OF 30—60 DAY OSCILLATION IN ATMOSPHERE BEFORE AND DURING 1982 EL NINO

By using the upper-wind data from July 1980 to June 1983,the variations of the low-frequency oscillation(LFO)in the atmosphere before and during 1982 El Nino have been investigated.Before the El Nino,the LFOpropagates from west to east over the equator of the Eastern Hemisphere and from east to west over 20°N.The eastward propagating LFO over the equator consists of zonal wavenumber 1 propagating eastward andzonal wavenumber 2 with a character of stationary wave.The oscillation of zonal wavenumber 2 can modulatethe oscillation strength.After the onset of the El Nino,the propagating directions of the LFO over the equatorand 20°N of the Eastern Hemisphere change to be westward and eastward,respectively.The LFO over thewestern Pacific weakens rapidly and one coming from middle and high latitudes propagates to the equator.From the phase compositions of streamline fields for the zonal wavenumber 1 of equatorial westward propa-gatirg LFO,it is found that the atmospheric heat source in the equator of the eastern Pacific(EEP)excites aseries of the equatorial cyclones and anticyclones which move northward and westward and form the westwardpropagating LFO over the equator.With the wavelength of 20000km,this kind of equatorial wave is similarto the mixing Rossby-gravity wave.In its westward and northward movement,the circulation in East Asiais modified.This may be the mechanism of the influence of El Nino on the climate of China.     

AN EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX DEFINED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT

Using daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and observation rainfall data in China for the 1971- 2000 period, a subtropical summer monsoon index has been defined by meridional moisture transport of the total atmosphere column. Results show that the subtropical summer monsoon index defined by the difference of meridional moisture transport between South China and North China can be used to describe the intensity of the subtropical summer monsoon. High (low) index is corresponding to strong (weak) subtropical summer monsoon. And the new index is well related to the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. In addition, the convergence of moisture transport from the west Pacific via the South China Sea and that from the North China may be responsible for the anomalously excessive summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.     

夏季东亚和印度热带季风环流系统动能和对流扰动的纬向传播特征

使用1980~1997年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及日本的TBB/GMS资料讨论了亚洲季风系统中印度和东亚两个子系统中热带季风变化(扰动)源地及变化后的纬向传播特性. 18a的结果表明, 在夏季热带季风主体的5º~15ºN范围内, 东亚夏季风系统中纬向风虽然为西风, 但绝大多数动能扰动和对流扰动均起源于140º~150ºE, 向西经南海传播到孟加拉湾(90º~100ºE). 而在印度夏季风系统中, 18a中有12a动能扰动起源于阿拉伯海向东传播到孟加拉湾, 东端抵达90ºE, 其余年份并无明显东西向传播特征. 因而, 在亚洲5º~15ºN夏季风主体区域内, 虽然均由西南季风控制, 但存在传播特性相反的东亚和印度两个子系统, 两个系统交界约在90º~95ºE, 比过去提出的交界经度105ºE更偏西一些. 以上结果也表明东亚夏季风环流系统在东西方向上主要受热带西太平洋影响而不是受来自孟加拉湾的印度季风影响. 相反, 印度季风环流系统除了受阿拉伯海影响外还部分受东亚季风系统影响.     

海气陆相互作用的准四年振荡机制

目前有关Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ（Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ）形成机制的讨论,大多是强调海气的相互作用。实际上地气互作用过程中形成的异常气流对于Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ／Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ的形成也是必不可少的,海气和地气相互作用过程应该是耦合的,不应该加以分离。本文综合了近年来我们得到的有关研究结果,提出了一个海气陆相互作用过程的准四年振荡过程,用来解释Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎａ形成机制和亚洲大陆气候年际变化机制。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHANGJIANG DELTA AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISM

Characteristics of climate change in the Changjiang Delta were analyzed based on the annualmean meteorological data since 1961,including air temperature,maximum and minimum airtemperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and visibility at 48 stations in that area(southernJiangsu and northern Zhejiang),and its adjacent areas(northern Jiangsu,eastern Anhui andsouthern Zhejiang),together with the environmental data.The results indicate that it is gettingwarmer in the Changjiang Delta and cooler in adjacent areas,thus the Changjiang Delta becomes a bigheat island,containing many little heat islands consisting of central cities,in which Shanghai City isthe strongest heat island.The intensity of heat islands enhances as economic development goes up.From the year 1978.the beginning year of reform and opening policy,to the year 1997,the intensityof big heat island of Changjiang Delta has increased 0.5℃ and Shanghai heat island increased 0.8℃.However.since 1978 the constituents of SO_2,NO_x and TSP(total suspended particles)in theatmosphere,no matter whether in the Changjiang Delta or in the adjacent areas,have all increased,but pH values of precipitation decreased.In the meantime,both sunshine duration and visibility arealso decreased,indicating that there exists a mechanism for climate cooling in these areas.Ouranalyses show that the mechanism for climate warming in the Changjiang Delta may be associatedwith heating increase caused by,economic development and increasing energy consumption.It isestimated that up to 1997 the intensity of warming caused by this mechanism in the Changjiang Deltahas reached 0.8—0.9℃,about 4—4.5 times as large as the mean values before 1978.Since then,the increase rate has become 0. 035℃/a for the Changjiang Delta.It has reached 1.3℃ for Shanghaiin 1997,about 12—13 times as large as the mean values before 1978.This is a rough estimation ofincreasing energy consumption rate caused by economic development.     

中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制

自 2 0世纪 2 0年代以来 ,中国地区 4 0和 90年代出现了 2个暖期及 5 0～ 6 0年代相对冷期。最近的 90年代的最暖年 (1998年 )或 5a滑动平均气温几乎已达或略高于 4 0年代的最暖年 (194 6年 )或 5a滑动平均气温。变暖最明显是北方地区 (黑龙江和新疆北部 ) ,而 35°N以南和 10 0°E以东地区自 5 0年代以来存在一个以四川盆地为中心的变冷带 ,虽然 90年代有变暖趋势 ,但基本达到 4 0年代暖期气温。中国降水则以 2 0年代为最少 (192 9年最少 ) ,5 0年代为多水年代 ,以后缓慢减少 ,70年代以后变化不大 ,但多雨带在 80年代及以后由华北南移到长江中下游。195 1～ 1990年 ,大部分地区气温和降水呈负相关 ,在东北和长江—黄河间存在 2个负相关中心 ,表明北方是变暖变旱 ,江淮间是变冷变湿。这些气候变化特征和全球气候变化相比较 ,除北方外 ,变暖期明显的滞后于全球变暖 ,并且出现变冷带等明显差异。文中还综述了用诊断和数值模拟方法对影响中国变化的气候自然变化和人类活动影响 (热岛效应和气溶胶影响 )的研究结果。我们认为 ,以上提出的 3种人类活动对中国气候变化有明显影响 ,特别是工农业发展造成的气溶胶增加是四川盆地气温变冷的主要原因。     

THE THREE-LEVEL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL:FORMULATION AND RESULTS

The“climate draft”often occurs in the coupling process of the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) andoceanic general circulation model (OGCM).One of the main methods to overcome the“climate draft”is to simulate theflow and temperature fields in the low-layer correctly.Therefore we designed a three-level AGCM including a planeta-ry boundary layer (PBL) and have run it seven model years to do climate simulation.The results show that the simulatedlower level air flow,surface air temperature and sea-level pressure in January and July,approximate to the climate av-erage fields,especially in Asian monsoon area.The simulated upper level flow and geopotential height are also in betteragreement with the observed fields.Moreover,the two westerly jets over the northern and southern sides of theQinghai-Xizang Plateau in winter,the disappearance of its southern subtropical jet during the seasonal transition fromspring to summer,the establishment of the two easterly jets near the equator and over the subtropical region during theseasonal transition,are also simulated well.In the mainland of China,the seasonal abrupt shift of the rainfall belt,suchas the Meiyu belt in South China during April to May,which jumps to the Changjiang River region in June,again jumpsback to the north China in July,and rapidly withdraws to the south in August,are simulated very well.Now we arecoupling this model to a global six-level OGCM and nesting a fine mesh (1°×1.25°)regional climate model over Chinaarea with it.     

冬半年平流层中部环流的变化及其爆发性增温现象

本文利用1958—1961年冬半年资料对平流层中部的冬季环流作了综合性的研究。讨论了平流层环流分型问题、年际变化问题、平流层环流周期性变化问题以及平流层爆发性增温和环流演变关系问题,得到以下主要结果: 1.冬季平流层环流型式比较简单而且稳定,环流可以分为A,B,C,D,E_1和E_2型(图1—4)。其中A,B型平均周期在20—22天左右,且出现的日数占总的统计日数的四分之三左右。E_1和E_2是环流转变时期的过渡型,平均周期约8—10天。 2.冬季平流层环流年际变化较大,但其变化和对流层环流变化有相当好的对应性。 3.冬季平流层的环流和气温有11天左右的周期性变化。这种周期性变化可能是与平流层的阿留申高压周期性地加强减弱和周期性伸缩有关。对流层环流和温度可能也有11天左右的周期性变化,并和平流层周期性变化相对应。因而这种周期性变化可能是地球大气本身固有的振荡。 4.就固定地区而言,北半球爆发性增温的变温中心常起源阿拉斯加、堪察加、欧洲和大西洋中部四个地区,而爆发性增温经常在西伯利亚东部、欧洲、北美东北部和格陵兰地区出现。就环流系统而言,爆发性增温变温中心常起源于高压的东北和西北二侧,而在平流层急流的外侧发展,在原来冷区或槽区引起爆发性增温。爆发性增温依变温中心移动路径不同,而和     

中全新世时期中国地区水循环因子变化的模拟研究

利用全球气候模式CAEM3嵌套区域模式MM5模拟了现代和中全新世时的气候,从模拟结果可以发现中全新世有效降水变化中心随季节变化,最大的有效降水增加出现在夏季东北地区和内蒙古东部,最大值超过3 mm/d;同时,黄河与长江之间区域降水减少,最大变化超过2 mm/d.中国北方地区云量增加,同时,中国东部的长江流域云量减少.高云量变化较小,低云量变化最大,最大变化超过2成.夏季,对应着黄河与长江之间区域的云量减少,这个区域的温度升高最大.从水汽的变化可以看到长江流域地区水汽减少,相对湿度也减少,这与云量的变化一致;华南地区水汽的变化与季节有关;东北地区水汽增加,相对湿度增大,对应云量的增加和降水增多.从结果可以发现相对湿度最大的变化超过15%,不是一个常数.有些地区温度升高,但是水汽却减少.但是,在LGM的温度降低的区域,水汽一致减少.这说明温度降低水汽对应减少,但温度升高不一定对应水汽增加.这与全球尺度水汽相对湿度基本保持常数的结果不同.中全新世时,长江流域除春季外变得干燥、少雨和高温,东北和内蒙古东部变得多雨和潮湿.