1997/1998年热带太平洋海温异常的诊断分析与预报检验

通过与历史上已发生的ENSO事件的比较，对1997－1998年热带太平洋海温异常的基本特征和可能成因进行了诊断分析，发现1997／1998年E1Nino事件具有显著的异常性和独特性，不同于以往单纯的东部型或西部型E1Nino。对用一个简化海气耦合动力学模式做1998／1998年E1Nino事件的预报进行检验。结果表明该模式对这次暖事件超前0－24个月的预报技巧均在0．5以上，模式对暖事件的成熟位相及以后阶段的预报比对暖事件的开始阶段预报得好。     

20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析

 考虑不同排放情景和各种强迫因子分别组合3组试验,对试验结果采取多模式集合,并把3组数值试验模拟的20世纪中国年平均气温距平变化与观测序列作对比,对20世纪中国气候变暖进行了归因分析。结果表明：20世纪中国气候变暖与人类排放温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶有密切的联系,尤以近50 a更明显。当模式综合考虑多种外部和内部强迫因子时,所模拟的20世纪中国年平均气温距平变化最接近实际观测。归因分析中还强调了海洋的重要作用。但是3组试验都没有模拟出20世纪20年代的变暖。     

全球增暖1.5℃的再思考——写在SR15发表之后

<正>2018年秋季IPCC发布了《IPCC全球升温1.5℃特别报告》(简称SR15),报告中指出:将全球变暖限制在1.5℃需要社会各方进行快速、深远和前所未有的变革。并且说明:与将全球变暖限制在2℃相比,限制在1.5℃对人类和自然生态系统有明显的益处,同时还可确保社会更加可持续和公平。本文将进一步再思考以下几点:(1)升温1.5℃特别报告与AR5人类排放的设计的对比,即对比全球增暖1.5℃与人类排放的设计以及可能     

古气候模拟

古气候模式与现代气候模式控制因子不完全相同,有的因子在现代气候模拟中可以不考虑,但是在古气候模拟中则是必不可少的,例如轨道参数、大气中温室气体的浓度、大陆冰盖、大洋热盐环流等。而且,随着模拟的时间尺度不同,这些因子的作用也不同。评价古气候模拟,可以从3处着眼:气候变化的方向、幅度和速度。但是,长期以来古气候模拟仅仅涉及到前两个问题,也就是研究气候对外强迫的平衡响应。集其大成者是古气候模式比较计划(Paleaoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project,     

全球气候模式对未来中国风速变化预估

利用世界气候研究计划之第三次耦合模式比较计划 (WCRP/CMIP3) 提供的, 参加IPCC AR4的19个气候模式和国家气候中心为IPCC第五次报告研发的新一代气候模式 (BCC_CSM1.0.1) 及模式集成, 考虑高排放 (A2)、 中等排放 (A1B) 和低排放 (B1) 三种人类排放情景, 预估21世纪中国近地层 (离地10 m) 风速变化。预估结果表明: (1) 21世纪全国平均的年平均风速呈微弱的减小趋势, 且随着预估情景人类排放的增加, 中国年平均风速减小趋势越显著。 (2) 冬季 (夏季) 全国平均风速呈减小 (增大) 趋势, 人类排放量越多, 冬季 (夏季) 风速减小 (增加) 程度越大。21世纪我国风速夏季 (冬季) 增大 (减小) 与全球变暖的背景下未来亚洲夏季风 (冬季风) 增强 (减弱) 有一定关系。 (3) 与20世纪末期 (1980～1999年) 相比, 21世纪初期 (2011～2030年) 中国区域年平均风速A2情景下略偏小, A1B和B1情景下年平均风速无明显变化; 21世纪中期 (2046～2065年) 和后期 (2080～2099年), 三种排放情景下中国年平均风速均比20世纪末期风速小。 (4) 21世纪初期、 中期和后期均表现为冬季 (夏季) 平均风速比20世纪末期冬季 (夏季) 平均小 (大)。 (5) 夏季中国中北部和东北地区风速偏大, 其余地区风速无明显变化或略偏小; 冬季除了东北北部和西藏东南部外, 中国大部地区风速偏小。绝大部分地区超过50%模式一致地预估上述风速变化形式, 具有一定的可信度。     

Distribution and source apportionments of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in mariculture sediments from the Pearl River Delta, South China

Surface and core sediments collected from six mariculture farms in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) were analyzed to evaluate contamination levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The ∑PCBs (37 congeners) concentrations ranged from 5.10 to 11.0 ng g(-1) (mean 7.96 ng g(-1)) in surface and 3.19 to 22.1 ng g(-1) (mean 7.75 ng g(-1)) in core sediments, respectively. The concentrations were significantly higher than that measured in the sediments of their corresponding reference sites, whereby the average enrichment percentages were 62.0% and 42.7% in surface and core sediments, respectively. Significant correlations (R2=0.77, p<0.05) of PCB homologue group proportions between fish feeds and surface mariculture sediments suggested that fish feed input was probably the main source for the enrichment of PCBs. Due to the fact that PCBs could be transferred along food chains, PCB contamination in fish feeds and mariculture sediments should not be overlooked.     

Toxicities of antifouling biocide Irgarol 1051 and its major degraded product to marine primary producers

Irgarol 1051 (2-methythiol-4-tert-butylamino-6-cyclopropylamino-s-triazine) is an algaecide commonly used in antifouling paints. It undergoes photodegradation which yields M1 (2-methylthio-4-tert-butylamino-6-amino-s-triazine) as its major and most stable degradant. Elevated levels of both Irgarol and M1 have been detected in coastal waters worldwide; however, ecotoxicity effects of M1 to various marine autotrophs such as cyanobacteria are still largely unknown. This study firstly examined and compared the 96 h toxicities of Irgarol and M1 to the cyanobacterium Chroococcus minor and two marine diatom species, Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira pseudonana. Our results suggested that Irgarol was consistently more toxic to all of the three species than M1 (96 h EC50 values: C. minor, 7.71 microug L(-1) Irgarol vs. > 200 microg L(-1) M1; S. costatum, 0.29 microg L(-1) Irgarol vs. 11.32 microg L(-1)M1; and T. pseudonana, 0.41 microg L(-1) Irgarol vs. 16.50 microg L(-1)M1). Secondly, we conducted a meta-analysis of currently available data on toxicities of Irgarol and M1 to both freshwater and marine primary producers based on species sensitivity distributions (SSDs). Interestingly, freshwater autotrophs are more sensitive to Irgarol than their marine counterparts. For marine autotrophs, microalgae are generally more sensitive to Irgarol than macroalgae and cyanobacteria. With very limited available data on M1 (i.e. five species), M1 might be less toxic than Irgarol; nonetheless this finding warrants further confirmation with additional data on other autotrophic species.     

Toxicity of antifouling biocides to the intertidal harpacticoid copepod Tigriopus japonicus (Crustacea, Copepoda): effects of temperature and salinity

Intertidal harpacticoid copepods are commonly used in eco-toxicity tests worldwide. They predominately live in mid-high shore rock pools and often experience a wide range of temperature and salinity fluctuation. Most eco-toxicity tests are conducted at fixed temperature and salinity and thus the influence of these environmental factors on chemical toxicity is largely unknown. This study investigated the combined effect of temperature and salinity on the acute toxicity of the copepod Tigriopus japonicus against two common biocides, copper (Cu) and tributyltin (TBT) using a 2 × 3 × 4 factorial design (i.e. two temperatures: 25 and 35 °C; three salinities: 15.0‰, 34.5‰ and 45.0‰; three levels of the biocide plus a control). Copper sulphate and tributyltin chloride were used as the test chemicals while distilled water and acetone were utilised as solvents for Cu and TBT respectively. 96h-LC50s of Cu and TBT were 1024 and 0.149 μg l⁻¹ respectively (at 25 °C; 34.5‰) and, based on these results, nominal biocide concentrations of LC0 (i.e. control), LC30, LC50 and LC70 were employed. Analysis of Covariance using ‘concentration’ as the covariate and both ‘temperature’ and ‘salinity’ as fixed factors, showed a significant interaction between temperature and salinity effects for Cu, mortality increasing with temperature but decreasing with elevated salinity. A similar result was revealed for TBT. Both temperature and salinity are, therefore, important factors affecting the results of acute eco-toxicity tests using these marine copepods. We recommend that such eco-toxicity tests should be conducted at a range of environmentally realistic temperature/salinity regimes, as this will enhance the sensitivity of the test and improve the safety margin in line with the precautionary principle.     

Assessment of risk of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in marine and freshwater fish in Pearl River Delta, China

Fish consumption is known to be beneficial to human health. However since the age of industrialization, the released/disposed chemical pollutants into water systems make fish a source of various environmental toxicants to humans. In oceanic cities with heavy industrial activities, fish products contribute the greatest proportion of exposure to pollutants. In this study, risks and potential effects of dioxins to health of coastal populations in the Pearl River Delta were assessed. Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in common fish species purchased at local markets. Concentrations of total dioxins in fish ranged from 0.481 to 9.05 pg TEQ/g wet weight were similar to the lesser concentrations reported for fish from other countries. The greatest concentrations of dioxins were measured in mandarin fish, a carnivorous freshwater fish. Exposure of murine primary leydig and ovarian cells to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (2,3,7,8-TCDD) reduced the synthesis of progesterone, testosterone and/or estrogen. The reductions were probably via inhibitory effects on the expression of the steroidogenic enzymes, steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (StAR) and cytochrome P450 side-chain cleavage enzyme (P450scc). Based on these reproductive parameters, the concentrations of dioxins and dioxin-like residues represent a moderate health risk due to consumption of fish.