奇偶对称性用于中长期天气预报初探

长期天气过程的全球性和非绝热性吸引着人们从更广（全球）、更本质（非绝热加热）的角度认识大气环流的性质和规律，近年来一些从奇偶对称性出发研究大气环流的工作反映了这种趋势。为此，提出一个动力预报方案和一个统计预报方法，并对后者作了实际的计算。结果表明，用奇偶对称方法进行预报可能是中长期天气预报的一种途径。     

大气扰动能量的转换,传播与非地转特征

本文利用1981—1982年冬季ECMWF格点资料对大气运动的非地转特点进行了系统的研究。指出:大气低频变化过程中的超、次地转运动与大气波动亦有一定的对应规律;北半球冬季的动能变化方向有显著的海陆差异。发现地转偏差(?)有特定的空间分布,并非出高纬向低纬逐步增加,而是在30N附近及亦道地区各存在一个大值带;在大值带中存在着(?)的大值中心。它对大气扰动(不小于低频时间尺度)的产生、维持和能量的变化相传播具有重要意义。     

太平洋区域季内振荡的一种负反馈过程

利用1981—2002年美国国家气象中心（National Meteorological Center,NMC）逐日海表温度（sea surface temperature,SST）、10 m高处风场（V）及逐月混合层厚度（mixed layer depth,mld）资料,研究了太平洋区域海表温度季内振荡的气候及异常特征,重点探讨了北太平洋区域海表温度季内振荡的维持机制。研究发现,太平洋区域海表温度存在3个季内振荡强度气候高值区,即热带东太平洋（终年存在）、西北太平洋（北半球春、夏、秋存在）、西南太平洋（南半球夏季前后存在）,它们出现在气候混合层厚度最小的区域和季节。海表温度季内振荡强度年际异常与混合层厚度年际异常存在显著负相关,在物理上,这种关系比它与海表温度异常的关系更直接。北太平洋区域5—9月地面风场与海表温度季节内振荡的基本耦合模态揭示出以漂流和感热输送为动力的一个负反馈过程,它存在于薄混合层海区,这是该海区强海表温度季内振荡的维持机制。     

夏季东亚地区AOD与地面太阳辐射变化的联系及季风环流异常:季节趋势影响

利用2000—2013年MODIS-Terra卫星产品提供的气溶胶光学厚度(aerosol optical depth,AOD)资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料集,使用奇异值分解(singular value decomposition,SVD)方法,分析了夏季东亚地区AOD与到达地面太阳辐射(downward solar radiation flux,DSRF)相联系的主要模态,并分析了其与夏季风变化的关系。夏季多年平均的AOD分布显示,在东亚地区存在两个AOD大值区(0.9),分别位于山东、河南、河北交界处附近以及苏中部分地区。而在福建、台湾及其附近洋面上,夏季AOD的值小于0.4。地面太阳辐射总体上呈现出由南往北递增的分布。比较发现,AOD与地面太阳辐射的气候分布较为相似。在保留季节趋势的情况下,运用SVD方法对两者进行分解,结果表明东亚地区AOD与地面太阳辐射表现出较好的正相关关系。由于相对于年际变化而言,季节趋势是更为主要的部分,因而这种同相关系可归因于季风活动的季节性进程。利用SVD1左场时间系数进行相关分析发现:6月(2013年除外),当中国东部气溶胶AOD大而地面太阳辐射亦大时,在中国东南部以及日本岛南部地区,由于气流辐合增强和存在较强的上升运动,降水偏多,而由于副高位置偏南,使得中国中东部偏北地区水汽供应偏弱,降水偏少。由于地面净太阳辐射增强,华北部分地区异常增暖。8月,大陆上空AOD为负(时间系数为负),地面太阳辐射减少,北方降水增多而南方降水减少,华北地区有一小范围的异常降温。上述结果表明北方气溶胶明显偏少时,云量增加,降水将增多,且辐射明显减弱;说明夏季风的季节进程对气溶胶、到达地面的太阳辐射变化等具有重要影响。     

Anomalous circulation patterns in association with two types of daily precipitation extremes over southeastern China during boreal summer

Based on the daily rainfall data from China Meteorological Administration, the tropical cyclone (TC) best track data from Japan Meteorological Agency, and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from NOAA, regional mean daily precipitation extreme (RDPE) events over southeastern China (specifically, the Fujian-Jiangxi region (FJR)) and the associated circulation anomalies are investigated. For the summers of 1979–2011, a total of 105 RDPE events are identified, among which 35 are TC-influenced (TCIn-RDPE) and 70 are TC-free events (TCFr-RDPE). Distinct differences between these two types of RDPEs are found in both their statistical features and the related circulation patterns. TCFr-RDPEs usually occur in June, while TCIn-RDPEs mainly take place during July–August. When TCFr-RDPEs happen, a center of the anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed over the FJR, with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south of this region. The warm/moist air flows from the South China Sea (SCS) and western Pacific meet with colder air from the north, forming a narrow convergent belt of water vapor over the FJR. Simultaneously, positive diabatic forcing anomalies are observed over the FJR, whereas negative anomalies appear over both its south and north sides, facilitating the formation and maintenance of the cyclonic circulation anomaly, as well as the upward motion of the atmosphere, over the FJR. When TCIn-RDPEs occur, southeastern China is dominated by a TC-related stronger anomalous cyclonic circulation. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the mid and high latitudes north of the FJR exists in the mid and upper troposphere, opposite to the situation during TCFr-RDPE events. Abundant warm/wet air is carried into the FJR from both the Indian Ocean and the SCS, leading to a large amount of latent heat release over the FJR and inducing strong ascending motion there. Furthermore, large differences are also found in the manifestation of Rossby wave energy propagation between these two types of RDPE events. The results of this study are helpful to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms behind these two types of RDPE events.     

CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION OF OLR OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT WITH ITS POSSIBLE LINKAGE TO SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Using the 1979-2009 NCEP/NACR reanalysis data and precipitation records in East China, research is performed of the climatological features of low-frequency oscillation (LFO) in OLR over the Maritime Continent (MC) as well as their associations with precipitation disturbance in the eastern part of China. Results suggest that in the MC there is significant climatological low-frequency oscillation (CLFO) in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), with the intraseasonal oscillation (30-60 days) being the strongest for April-September, and the MC acting as a high-value region of percentage contributions of low-frequency OLR variance. On the low-frequency time scale there occur four events of more intense active OLR during this time interval. In the January-April (May-August) phase, MC convection is relatively weak (vigorous). The CLFO makes pronounced eastward displacement at tropics, with phase propagation seen longitudinally, too. There occur low-frequency disturbance circulations similar to the EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection, starting from the MC via the South China Sea and the Philippines to the Yangtze valley of China. At different phases, the variation in the low-frequency circulations and heating fields shows that the rainfall disturbance in eastern China is likely to be under possible effects of the CLFO from the MC in April-September, and the low-frequency heating variation exhibits a meridional pattern as an EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection. As the OLR CLFO is in a peak (valley) phase the low-level divergence or convergence with the reversal at high levels over the MC is related to relatively feeble (robust) low frequency convection, thereby exciting an EAP or P-J wavetrain from the MC to the Sea of Japan. At the higher levels, the South-Asian high is eastward (westward) of normal due to effects of low-frequency cyclones (anticyclones), resulting in less (more) rainfall in the Jiangnan (areas in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze and to the south of the river) and Hetao (the Great Bend of Yellow River) areas, and increased (decreased) rainfall in SW China, Qinghai Plateau and Gansu. At the conversion phases, low-frequency convection becomes more active in parts of the MC, consequently exciting low-frequency wavetrain of cyclones-anticyclones-cyclones at low levels, making the South-Asian high southward of the mean, so that strong convergent zones emerge in the upper and middle Yangtze basins and Jilin of NE China, responsible for plentiful precipitation there in sharp contrast to the rainfall over the band between the Yellow and Huaihe Rivers and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. These results help understand in depth the climatological LFO characteristics and the phase-locked feature, thereby further improving our understanding of the causes of rainfall disturbances in different parts of the country.     

梅雨异常年份东半球中低纬能量诊断

本文利用1980—1983年间ECMWF的逐日格点资料,计算了梅雨异常的旱(1981)、涝(1983)年间东半球中、低纬的大气能量并进行了分析和诊断,指出:能量随时间的变化具有中期振荡的特征,尤其是总能量在对流层中的振荡具有整层同位相的特点;在旱涝年间,无论是梅雨的前期还是同期,反映在能量的大小和变化特征上都有明显的不同;并且,梅雨前期的能量大小及其变化的差别可为梅雨旱涝的中长期预报提供一些信息。      

非线性重力波的一种特殊形态

本文采用自然坐标系，在一定的条件下对正压和有层结的动力学模式中的一种辐散运动进行了描述，得到了一组非线性重力波的解析持解．文中对这种波动的特点进行了分析．其结果对深入认识环流变化的动力学机制具有意义。     

海表温度异常对Madden－Julian振荡的影响

在前文［１］的基础上，进一步研究当海表温度存在经圈方向不均匀分布或偏离气候状态（距平）时，改变水分收支平衡及边界层的湿度辐合这一物理过程对Ｍａｄｄｅｎ－Ｊｕｌｉａｎ振荡的可能影响。结果表明，它对修正的Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波和Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波的传播性质影响不大。但当海表温度为正距平时，修正后东传Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波振幅不稳定增长到ｅ倍的时间约减小了１４．５％，其不稳定增长率随着热源特征宽度的增加而增加，当特征宽度为２倍Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ变形半径时，不稳定增长率达极大，但当特征宽度继续增大时，其不稳定增长率又将减小。当海表温度为负距平时，修正后东传Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波振幅不稳定增长到ｅ倍的时间约增加２０％，其不稳定增长率随着冷源特征宽度的增加而减小，当特征宽度为２倍Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ变形半径时，其不稳定增长率达极小，此后；随着特征宽度的增加其不稳定增长率随之增加，但始终小于无海表温度异常的情形。经圈尺度较小的那支修正的Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波除波长极长的波段外，波仍是阻尼的；而经圈尺度较大的那支修正的Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波，在短的波段内仍是不稳定增长的。