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热带风场与气压场的客观分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文着重讨论了为恰当定义热带风场的辐散分量,客观分析方案所应具备的基本条件,指出过去通行的分析方案在这方面的严重缺陷,并提出了一个改进方案.理想与实测资料的分析结果都表明,新的分析方案在保留分析流场的辐散分量与减小分析误差方面都有明显的效果.同时新的分析方案还提供了低纬度实施多变量分析的可能性,从而部分地缓解了低纬度观测资料不完整所造成的困难. 相似文献
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本文利用数值预报式来研究可能造成南海热带气旋异常路径的一个因子,即多个热带气旋之间的相互作用。这里所说的热带气旋相互作用不是指通常所说的两个热带气旋很靠近时的相互吸引(排斥)或旋转这一类涡旋间的直接相互作用,而是指相隔远距离的热带气旋门,通过改变环境流场而造成的间接影响。所选的例子是位于南海的9009号热带气旋(Tasha)。与它同时存在的热带气旋中9008(Steve)与9010(Vernon)。先作了这次多个活动的数值预报试验,以判断模式的预报能力,然后通过有控制地改变9008与9010号热带气旋的参数,来考察这两个热带气旋活动对9009号热带气旋的路径的影响,并对这种影响的机理作一定的诊断分析。 相似文献
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TEST OF A TROPICAL LIMITED AREA NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODEL INCLUDING EFFECT OF REAL TOPOGRAPHY 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
In this paper, a tropical limited numerical prediction p.e. model in sigma coordinate is developed. The predicted variables are deviations from a rest reference atmosphere. This transformation is of benefit in reducing truncation error and guarantees computational stability after the very steep real topography is introduced into the model. The numerical tests with this model show that the large-scale obstacle of the Tibetan Plateau is not negligible in forecasting tropical systems like the South China Sea typhoon. 相似文献
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Experiments for short range forecasting of typhoon tracks over the South China Sea Region were carried out using limited-area numerical model recently developed by the authors.Due to the shortage of sounding data over the sea, typhoon circulations are usually obtained incompletely from objective analysis, or with significant deviation of the centre from reality.Therefore a set of schemes for typhoon initialization are proposed here to construct a bogus typhoon with the circulation being consistent with the physical processes included in the limited-area model.Based on the schemes bogus data over the model grids are created and analysed together with conventional observational data.Then the normal model initialization scheme is issued to further modulate the model typhoon with the numeriCal modeel.Some experiments of sensitivity in various aspects are conducted for further improvement of typhoon track predictions.The experimental results for a number of typhoon landing in southern China in 1993 and 1994 shows that the limited-area model is capable of predicting typhoon tracks in the southern China region. 相似文献