未来气候情景下中国生态地理区域系统温度带的北移(英文)

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species' ranges,eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems.Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario.Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS.The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones,which are sensitive to climate change.Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period(1961-1990).Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical,Subtropical,Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate,Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced.Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century.North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change,especially in East China.Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate,Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°,5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively.Moreover,northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.     

土壤甲烷吸收汇研究进展

人类活动导致大气中温室气体浓度增加,是全球气候变暖的主要原因之一。由于陆地生态系统中通气状况良好的土壤是甲烷最大的吸收汇,研究吸收汇强度及其影响因素对估算大气中甲烷储存增量、采取措施增强土壤吸收汇的强度是很有意义的。综述了全球透气土壤吸收甲烷总量及土地利用变化、农业措施对甲烷吸收汇的影响。     

减缓全球变暖与温室气体吸收汇研究进展

对减缓全球气候变化与温室气体“汇”的最新研究进展作了较为详尽的综述。针对目前温室气体汇研究中的主要前沿科学问题进行了深入分析：包括汇的定义、种类及方法学问题,土地利用变化和森林以及农业土壤汇的种类及计算中存在的一些问题,人类活动对自然生态系统源汇状况的影响等;对还估算各种温室气体源汇的不确定性作了分析总结;在列举了一些气候变化框架公约缔约国及发展中国家对《京都议定书》中引入温室气体“汇”的看法及态     

中国21世纪气候变化情景的统计分析

利用区域气候模式系统PRECIS,分析SRES A2、B2情景下21世纪的三个时段中国地面气温和降水的变化,并对B2情景下中国区域地面气温和降水可能的变化趋势进行统计分析。结果表明,未来极端高温和降水事件将会增加,而极端低温事件将会减少。对全国七大区平均地面气温和降水变化的分析显示：未来东北、华北和西北地区夏季增温大而降水增加少,暖干化趋势较明显;华中、华东和华南地区的夏季降水增加明显而冬季增加较少,尤其是华南冬季的降水明显地减少,这表明这些地区夏季的洪涝和冬季的干旱都会加重。     

藏北地区草地退化空间特征及其趋势分析

根据草地退化国家标准和藏北地区草地退化实际情况,结合藏北地区1981—2004年多年遥感监测数据以及其它相关数据,采用遥感手段和GIS技术,分析藏北地区草地退化与坡向、坡度和海拔高度之间的关系;并计算藏北地区草地退化趋势系数,对该地区草地退化空间特征的趋势进行了分析。结果表明：在藏北地区,草地退化主要发生在平地（坡度小于1°）草地,平地的草地退化趋势比坡地显著,阳坡的草地退化指数（GDI）大于阴坡。在草地面积最大的4 500～5 250 m的海拔高度范围内,草地退化明显,草地退化趋势也显著。 