中国东部地区降水季内变化的季节锁相

用１９５４－１９８３年５－８月的逐日降水资料分析了中国东部地区降水的气候特征，并讨论了它同东亚季风季节内变化的联系。结果发现，江淮梅雨同华南夏季风降水都具有季节锁相特征，前者呈单峰分布，后者呈双峰分布。同时，降水量的季内变化均具有２０－２５天的周期振荡特征。江淮流域降水的峰值和华南地区的第一个峰值主要受副热带季风影响，同夏季风的季节性北进和加强有关，华南地区第二个降水峰值受南海热带季风影响，与同期     

QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION IN RAINFALL OVER CHINA

Based on monthly rainfall data from 80 stations of China for the period of January 1951—February 1985analysed in terms of the maximum entropy spectrum and EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function)techniques,the spatial and temporal features of quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)in the rainfall are investigatedin a detailed manner,with some results of interest acquired.Highly evident is the QBO in rainfall over China,especially the mid and lower reaches of the ChangjiangRiver,the NE side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,North China,the southern part of NE China,areas southof the Changjiang River and of the Nanling mountain region,and most of Xinjiang.The spatial wave described by the first and second eigenvectors of EEOF for eastern China is a type of wavetravelling from NE to SW,indicating the cycle of patterns(in the south to north direction):dryness(D)-wetness(W)-dryness(D)→southern W-northern slight D→W-D-W→southern D-northern slight W→D-W-D again,with the flooded region between the Changjiang and Huanghe Rivers for the D-W-D occurrenceand with the Changjiang River as the division for the southern W-northern slight D happening.The third andfourth eigenvectors show a standing wave-like feature for the same eastern part,indicating the cycle of D-W-D→transition→W-D-W→transition→D-W-D,again,where the transition means the generalweakening of drought and flooding and their subsequent reversal development.The amplitudes of the time coefficients of the first two eigenvectors are opposite in the trend of their changesto those of the next two and show a period of 10—14 years.     

基于BMA方法的地面气温的10～15 d延伸期概率预报研究

利用TIGGE资料提供的欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)、英国气象局(UKMO)三个预报中心2013年6月1日至8月31日的地面2 m气温10~15 d预报资料,对延伸期地面气温进行贝叶斯模式平均(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)预报试验。结果表明,BMA方法的预报效果随训练期长度而改变,训练期长度为30 d时预报效果最优。BMA方法可提供全概率密度函数,定量描述预报不确定性的大小,且陆地上预报不确定性大于海洋上的预报不确定性,高纬度地区预报不确定性大于低纬度地区的预报不确定性。利用CRPS评分对BMA概率预报技巧进行评估,发现预报技巧随预报时效的延长降低,且预报技巧在海洋上优于陆地、低纬度地区优于高纬度地区。此外,3 d、5 d和7 d滑动平均的预报值反映某些天气过程的平均要素预报,对于提高10~15 d延伸期概率预报技巧有一定效果,且滑动天数越长,预报效果越好。     

数值天气预报中的不一致性问题综述

近年来随着数值天气预报的不断发展,数值天气预报中出现了一个新的值得注意的问题:预报不一致性,即连续多次预报中,前后两次预报所做出的预报结果之间差异较大的现象。本文较系统地概述了这一问题,总结了预报不一致性的概念、定量分析方法、产生的可能原因及其与预报误差的关系等方面的研究成果。目前预报不一致性的定量分析方法还较少,其适用性和客观性等还需进一步研究。在预报不一致性产生的原因方面,现有的研究仅限于理论上的简要分析,初始误差和模式误差在预报不一致性形成过程中的具体作用等尚不清楚。最后阐述了在预报不一致性研究中存在的一些问题及可能的研究方向。     

基于TIGGE资料的预报跳跃性特征

利用2011年3月—2013年2月TIGGE资料中ECMWF,NCEP及CMA 3个中心的500 hPa位势高度场、850 hPa温度场和海平面气压场的集合预报资料,采用Jumpiness指数同时结合单点跳跃、异号两点跳跃等预报跳跃相关概念,研究了集合控制预报和集合平均预报的预报跳跃特征问题,并进行对比分析。结果表明:平均而言,短时效预报之间的跳跃性低于长时效预报之间的跳跃性。集合平均预报的结果之间较其相应的控制预报具有更好的一致性。在预报跳跃的频率统计方面,集合平均预报结果总体上明显低于集合控制预报,两者在长时效的预报跳跃情况差别较大。该文研究了预报跳跃对不同区域、时间和变量的敏感性,结果表明:时间平均的预报跳跃性对区域和变量很敏感。不同预报跳跃类型出现的频率及集合控制预报和集合平均预报在预报跳跃性方面的差异对区域、时间和变量的敏感性有限。     

CMIP5多模式资料中气温的BMA预测方法研究

利用CMIP5的8个全球气候系统模式对气温的回报结果进行贝叶斯模式平均(简称BMA)试验,并采用均方根误差、距平相关系数、连续等级概率评分等对多模式集合平均(简称EMN)和BMA的回报结果进行检验、评估。结果表明,EMN的回报效果优于8个单模式的回报效果,而BMA的回报效果最好,其区域平均的均方根误差比EMN小0.5℃左右。在此基础上,利用中等排放情景RCP4.5下CMIP5模式中的年际年代际预估资料对2011—2035年的气温进行预估。研究发现东亚地区在2011—2035年气温将普遍升高,海洋上的增暖幅度较小,陆地上的增暖幅度较大,且增暖幅度随纬度升高而增大。青藏高原及中国北方大部分地区气温将明显升高,升温幅度在1℃左右,而南方的升温幅度较小,约为0.3~0.6℃。     

气象台的气象实践教学体系

介绍了气象台在气象实践教学课程建设和教学改革中取得的主要成果，在课程体系的建设、开放实验项目的设立、教学内容、教学手段和方式上具有创新性，这些成果在实践实习中的应用提高了实践教学的效果。     

冬季中国地面气温的变化与前期北半球高层环流异常的联系

利用1960—2009年17层逐日温度场、风场和位势高度场的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及中国160站地面气温的观测资料,采用SVD分析、相关分析以及E-P通量计算等方法对冬季中国地面气温的变化与前期平流层异常的联系进行初步的探讨。结果表明,冬季中国平均地面气温与前期2个月北半球高层的温度场、位势高度场以及纬向风场在40 °N以北,90 °W~180 °附近,自平流层上层一直向下延伸到对流层顶附近有一个重要的相关显著区。同时发现,1月中国地面气温异常冷年所对应的北半球中高纬度高层环流异常在前期2个月内为持续性的正（风场为负）异常,而异常暖年所对应的异常随时间变化出现正负（风场为负正）异常的转变,异常自平流层上层向下延伸至对流层内。行星波异常及其传播对平流层-对流层耦合起到了重要的作用,也是造成中国地面气温异常冷（暖）的原因之一。因此,北半球高层环流的异常对中国地面气温的变化有重要的指示意义。      

MAINTENANCE AND OSCILLATION MECHANISMS OF SUMMER TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES

The mechanisms of the maintenance and oscillation of 1982 summer tropical 200-hPa mean easterly flow and extra-long waves are investigated in terms of the energy equations in wavenumber-frequency space. Calculation results show that the difference in heating between land and sea and the boundary effect serve as the main source of energy; frictional dissipation as the sink; the conversion of available potential energy into kinetic takes place dominantly in the waves of number 1-2; such transformation is accomplished in just a small amount in zonal mean flow and therefore can be ignored because of the value.In the interaction between wave and zonal mean flow, the latter loses its available potential and gains kinetic energy. The tropical easterly belt over 20°N-5°S is found barotropically stable and that over 10°N-5°S, unstable. The waves of number 2 and 1 manifest themselves a primary source and sink of kinetic energy, respectively, in the interplay between waves and between zonal mean flow and wave.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.