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利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA)和国家海洋局(SOA)数据资料, 对南海沿海台风活动(1949—2016)和风暴潮灾害趋势(1989—2016)进行了统计分析。结果表明, 南海地区台风年登陆频数整体上呈微弱减少趋势, 但强台风影响及强度呈加强趋势; 1990年代中期台风登陆频数出现显著突变, 粤东地区受高强度台风的影响变得频繁, 粤西地区从2007年开始台风登陆强度逐年增强; 研究区域内台风强度分布一致性较好。文章还总结了典型的热带气旋路径, 分析了不同入射角范围的台风在强度和地区分布上占比的变化规律, 指出近年来中国南海沿海地区年强台风暴潮灾害发生频数增多, 年最大风暴潮等级有增大趋势。 相似文献
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热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋(STY和SUPER TY)时间和纬度的关系"φ—m"。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。 相似文献
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In this paper, the wind field provided by a meso-scale atmospheric model is employed. When main physical processes, including wave-current interactions, are considered, the latest version of the third generation wave model SWAN is applied to simulate the typhoon wave generated by Typhoon Winnie. The model results are compared with the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-2 satellite altimeter data and analyzed in details. Then the distribution of wave fields are analyzed, with the results showing that applying SWAN to simulate large-scale domain can also fairly reproduce the observed features of waves and realistically reflect the distribution of typhoon waves. 相似文献
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To study the Taiwan Strait (TS), an unusual sea area, the numerical model in marginal seas of China is used to simulate and analyze the tidal wave motion in the strait. The numerical modeling experiments reproduce the amphidromic system of the M2 tide in the south end of the Taiwan strait, and consequently confirm the existence of the degenerate amphidromic system. On this basis, further discussion is conducted on the M2 system and its formation mechanism. It can be concluded that the tidal waves of the TS is consisted of the progressing wave from the north entrance and the degenerate amphidromic system from the south entrance, in which the progressing wave from the north entrance dominates the tidal wave motion in the strait. Except for the convergent effect caused by the landform and boundary, the degenerate amphidromic system produced in the south of the strait is another important factor for the following phenomena: the large tidal range in the middle of the strait, the concentrative zone of co-amplitude and co-phase line in the south of the strait. The degenerate amphidromic system is mainly produced by the incident Pacific Ocean tidal wave from the Luzon strait and the action by the shoreline and landform. The position of the amphidromic point is compelled to move toward southwest until degenerating by the powerful progressing wave from the north entrance. 相似文献
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近年来,应用数值模型模拟台风引起的风暴潮运动越来越普遍,模型中对于风拖曳力系数的确定,一般都从相对风速出发,可引用的公式也较多,但这些公式很少考虑潮位变化对此系数的影响.在强潮河口、海岸海域,潮位变幅大,最高潮位甚至可达风速参考高度(10m)的近一半,如长江口和杭州湾.在数值模拟中不考虑风暴潮和天文潮共同引起的潮位变化,会造成风应力高潮时被低估、低潮时被高估的现象,从而影响风暴潮模拟的精度.为此本文对现有的风拖曳力系数加以改进,提出了考虑潮位影响的风拖曳力系数表达式,并应用于长江口、杭州湾9711号台风风暴潮的模拟中,增水模拟结果得到了明显改善,可进一步推广应用于强潮河口、海岸的风暴潮增水模拟中. 相似文献
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In order to investigate the effect of wind input and whitecapping dissipation on the simulation of typhoon-waves, three experiments are conducted with the latest version of SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model.The three experiments adopt the Komen, Janssens, and Westhuysen expressions for wind input and whitecappingdissipation, respectively. Besides the above-mentioned source terms, other parameterization schemes in these experiments are the same. It shows that the experiment with the Westhuysen expression result in the least simulationerrors while that with the Janssens expression has the most. The results from the experiments with Komen and Westhuysen expressions show that the differences in significant wave height (SWH) have good correlation with thedifferences in dissipation energy caused by whitecapping. This indicates that the whitecapping dissipation sourceterm plays an important role in the resultant differences of the simulated SWH between the two experiments. 相似文献
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渤海湾是全世界受风暴潮灾害最严重的地区之一。近年来渤海湾建设了大量的大型海岸工程,为研究其建设以后风暴潮可能发生的变化,采用大-中-小区域多重嵌套方法,建立渤海风暴潮二维数值模型。以对渤海海域影响最显著的9216、9711台风和2003年10月三次风暴潮为例,对渤海湾大型工程实施前、后的风暴潮过程进行模拟,分析工程实施后风暴潮高潮水位变化,为工程实施可能对风暴潮防护带来的影响提供基础。计算表明,由于沿岸围垦减小海域的纳潮受水面积,海水被挤压抬升,渤海湾海域工程后风暴潮高潮位普遍抬升。在特大风暴潮作用下,水位最大升高可达0.10 m以上,在堤防设计中需引起重视。 相似文献