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This paper introduces a new approach for the initialization of ensemble numerical forecasting: Dynamic Analogue Initialization (DAI). DAI assumes that the best model state trajectories for the past provide the initial conditions for the best forecasts in the future. As such, DAI performs the ensemble forecast using the best analogues from a full size ensemble. As a pilot study, the Lorenz63 and Lorenz96 models were used to test DAI’s effectiveness independently. Results showed that DAI can improve the forecast significantly. Especially in lower-dimensional systems, DAI can reduce the forecast RMSE by ~50% compared to the Monte Carlo forecast (MC). This improvement is because DAI is able to recognize the direction of the analysis error through the embedding process and therefore selects those good trajectories with reduced initial error. Meanwhile, a potential improvement of DAI is also proposed, and that is to find the optimal range of embedding time based on the error’s growing speed. 相似文献
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吴良超;吴军荣;刘赟 《东北测绘》2013,(4):57-60
数字管道经过多年的发展,已经在长输管道工业中得到了广泛应用。结合多年数字管道系统建设经验,介绍了适合国内长输管道特点的数字管道系统完整解决方案。基于GIS的数字管道系统解决方案已成功应用于多项长输管道工程建设中,并取得了显著的应用效果,彻底改变了传统管道建设与运营管理模式,大大提高了长输管道工程建设、运营管理的质量、效率与水平。 相似文献