知识引导的稀疏时间序列遥感数据拟合

在多云多雨的地区,光学遥感存在着获取无云数据困难的难题,这会导致时间序列应用中可用数据匮乏。因此,本文面向稀疏时间序列遥感数据,根据噪声造成遥感影像上归一化差分植被指数(NDVI)被低估的事实,提出了一种知识引导的拟合方法。首先,在遥感影像预处理的基础上,利用先验知识和时序差分法对噪声进行识别和剔除;然后,采用高斯二阶模型对原始数据进行拟合;最后,根据拟合残差更新权重,进行迭代拟合,重复上述过程直至获得稳定的结果。本文以Landsat 8 OLI作为数据源,对浙江省杭州地区的森林数据进行拟合,结果表明:在稀疏时间序列数据的情况下,本文方法与MODIS数据拟合结果的相关系数达到0.92,关键时点(如NDVI峰值点等)的时间误差在5 d;相比当前主流方法的0.88与8 d具有更高的精度。     

观测卫星不足时的GPS/INS紧组合抗差自适应滤波

常规GPS/INS紧组合抗差自适应滤波只适用于卫星数≥4的情况,且预测残差构造自适应因子要求观测值可靠。针对该局限性,对常规抗差自适应滤波算法做出两点改进:1)采用两步滤波,用第1步常规EKF滤波残差构造第二步抗差算法的粗差判别量;2)在第2步滤波用预测残差构造自适应因子时,剔除异常观测值对应的预测残差和预测残差协方差,以削弱观测异常对自适应因子的不良影响。实验结果表明,常规抗差算法在卫星数4时不适用。常规自适应滤波算法在观测值存在异常的情况下无法正确修正模型异常。改进后的抗差自适应滤波算法在组合系统观测卫星数4且观测值存在异常的情况下,仍能正确修正观测粗差和动力学模型异常,能够达到良好的导航精度。     

基于SVG的地质灾害在线应急态势符号设计与实现

针对地质灾害的应急响应及处理技术系统成为近几年地质灾害领域研究的热点和重点,然而在已有的研究中,应急决策系统多为桌面应用程序,难以满足应急部署的实时性和灵活性,同时现有的地质灾害应急技术中对地质灾害应急态势标绘技术的研究较少,而应急部署又十分需要态势符号的支撑。为此,本文在分析多种在线符号绘制语言特点的基础上,提出了一种基于SVG的地质灾害在线应急态势标绘方法,对地质灾害应急需要使用的态势标绘符号进行了算法设计与系统实现。现场应用案例表明:该方法可以实现地质灾害应急态势符号的在线交互式标绘,为决策者快速、实时部署应急方案提供有效支撑。     

“一带一路”沿线区域耕地格局变化（英文）

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia,Africa and Europe.In this study,we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries(64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration.We apply FAO statistics and Globe Land30(the world's finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution),and develop three indicator groups(namely quantity,conversion,and utilization degree) for the analysis.The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10~4 km~2 between 2000 and 2010.The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia,while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China.Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Hungary(0.66×10~4 km~2) and India(0.57×10~4 km`2).China decreased 1.95×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Bangladesh(–0.22×10~4 km~2) and Thailand(–0.22×10~4 km~2).Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest,grassland,artificial surfaces and bare land,and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics:while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces,considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia.The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe,while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries.Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic-focused studies,as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses.Nevertheless,the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China' "Go Out policy" would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

黄淮海平原耕地集约利用时空差异及其影响因素研究（英文）

This study developed a comprehensive system to evaluate the intensity of cropland use and evolution of cropland use in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Delphi-entropy methods were adopted to determine the weight of the index,and the Geo Detector model was established to explore the influencing factors.The results are summarized as follows:(1) The intensity of inputs,degree of utilization,and production increased continuously,but the intensity of continuous conditions experienced an overall decline followed by a rebound towards the end of the study period.The number of counties with high and moderately high intensity increased by 56.8% and 14.6%,respectively,from 1996 to 2011.The number of counties with moderately low and low intensity declined by 35.9 % and 11.9 %,respectively.Areas with significant increases in intensity were mainly distributed in northeast Hebei Province,northwest Shandong Province,and north Jiangsu Province.The intensity is high in northern Jiangsu and Anhui;the output effect remained above moderate intensity mainly near Beijing,Tianjin,Tangshan,and counties in the suburbs of Shijiazhuang.(2) Natural disasters,elevation,slope,and road networks were the main factors influencing the intensity of cropland use in this region,with influence values of 0.158,0.143,0.129,and 0.054,respectively.Areas with moderately high and high levels of intensity were distributed in low-lying areas.Uneven distribution of precipitation,seasonal drought,and flood disasters can directly affect the stability index of croplands and reduce the intensity of cropland use.Developed road networks are associated with moderately high intensity.Our results suggest recommendations such as promoting agricultural intensification and large-scale management,promoting the construction of road networks,improving early warning systems for drought and flood disasters,and promoting moderate and intensive use of arable land,and focusing on restoration and sustainable use of cropland.     

一次具有对流合并现象的强飑线系统的闪电活动特征及其与动力场的关系

受东北冷涡与副热带高压西北部暖湿气流影响,2015年7月27日北京地区爆发了一次具有明显对流单体合并特征的强飑线灾害性强对流天气过程。利用北京闪电定位网（BLNet）总闪定位、多普勒雷达和探空资料等,详细分析了此次飑线过程整个生命史期间不同对流区的总闪活动特征。结果表明,整个飑线过程以云闪为主,地闪活动以负地闪为主;对流单体合并时云闪数量激增,飑线过程后期正地闪比例跃增。93%的闪电主要分布在距对流线10 km范围内,层云区闪电较少;层云区的闪电电荷来源主要是由对流区的电荷经过过渡区输送而来,正地闪更易发生在过渡区和层云区。对流合并过程中有大量的水汽集中,垂直积分液态含水量（VIL）峰值超前闪电峰值24 min。利用变分多普勒雷达分析系统（VDRAS）对这次过程的三维风场进了反演,据此对单体合并期间闪电增强的动力原因进行了研究。根据VDRAS反演的动力场来看,对流云单体合并主要发生在低层辐合区内,合并后上升运动加强,上升气流范围变大,闪电活动显著增强,并主要发生在具有较强垂直风切变的区域,少部分闪电发生在对流区后部开始出现下沉气流的区域。     

三明市雷电气候特征与雷电灾害易损度区划研究

通过对三明市市区及10个县（市）气象观测站1981-2013年雷电观测资料的统计分析,得出了三明市雷电气候特征与变化规律.采用2003-2012年雷电灾害数据,从雷电致灾因子、承灾体因素考虑,选取雷击密度N_g、雷电灾害频度P、经济损失模数D和生命受损模数L作为分析雷电灾害易损度指标参数,通过广泛调研和抽样调查问卷,确定各要素所占权重,计算出三明市区及所属10个县（市）雷电灾害易损性风险值,确定了雷电灾害易损度区划分级指标,绘制雷电灾害易损度区划图,完成了雷电灾害易损度区划研究.     

北方岩溶水源地的基本类型和资源评价方法的选择——以煤矿区奥陶系岩溶水源地为例

北方岩溶水,储量丰富,紧靠产煤区,是北方能源建设的主要供水水源。文章概略的归纳出北方岩溶水和岩溶水源地的主要特点;对岩溶水源地和岩溶水资源的评价方法进行了分类;提出了岩溶水资源评价方法选择的原则;详细论述了主要类型水源地的资源评价方法。      

南海地区赤道辐合带的动力学与能量学特征分析

本文利用三角形区域法,对南海地区ITCZ的21个个例分析计算了有关动力学特征量随高度的分布,从而得出了平均的结果,这与蒋全荣和余志豪(1984)的分析结论基本一致。分析还发现在平均和分类情况下,南海地区ITCZ的高层(约300hpa)可能有一个相对的干燥层或“干盖”存在。能量学特征的计算表明,南海地区的ITCZ低层具有大量水汽、潜热和全能量的水平辐合,然后垂直向上输送并在高层向副热带地区水平辐散开去。因此,它在热带大气环流能量、水汽等方面的传输过程中起着重要的作用。      

宁夏中卫长流水剖面沉积物中稀土元素及其环境意义

通过对我国西北腾格里沙漠前缘凹地－宁夏长流水剖面第四纪沉积物中稀土元素、分布模式、特征参数和稀土元素之间以及其他元素相关系数研究,探讨了该区河湖相沉积物的物质来源及气候环境演化过程。初步认为该凹地第四纪晚期近７万年以来沉积物经历了三次较大的干冷／温湿气候环境演化并存有４～５次亚一级的气候冷暖阶段性变化。其中在约２．７ｍ处,湖相沉积层中大多稀土元素有突变现象,可能代表了全新世大暖期（９３００～５３００ａＢＰ）在该区的反应。同时,认为风成砂是进入该区沉积体系的主要物源并保留母岩特征,但也不排除凹地周围侏罗纪基岩受风化剥蚀后随水带入沉积体系。该剖面的沉积物大致以风成砂、河流沉积、湖泊沉积旋回叠覆与气候干冷、冷湿、温湿趋于同步变化的模式。总体以干旱荒漠环境为主导,化学风化相对微弱,生态环境十分脆弱。