水电开发对河流水沙变化的综合影响评价新方法(英文)

The environmental impact assessment (EIA) of cascade dams building in international rivers has been widely discussed in China and ASEAN countries since the 1990s. In Southwest China, all the great mountainous rivers have been the major state base for large-scale hydropower development. Among these rivers, the environmental change and response of the watercourse under the cascade dams building in the upper Mekong (called Lancang River in China) has been the focus in recent 20 years. In this paper, the Lancang River, which has over 25 years of large-scale hydropower development, was chosen as a case study for establishing the affected evaluation indicators system and its regression model of runoff and sediment, determining the indicators weight by the hierarchy analysis method and factor analysis method, and setting up the quantitative evaluation models of indicators affected level based on the "marginal efficiency" principle. Using these methods and model established, the influence degree of runoff and sediment in the Lancang River from 1986 to 2007 were assessed. The major results are: (1) the impact of sediment transport change by the cascade development is much higher than that of the runoff change; (2) the years’ number with different impact levels respectively are 72.7% as the "smallest" level, 18.2% as "smaller", and 9.1% as "general"; (3) the change process of runoff and sediment shows a "U-shaped" pattern, which indicates the balance of sediment change because of the interaction of sediment reduction by Manwan reservoir storage and the increase by the Dachaoshan dam construction.     

下湄公河流域国际组织机构及相应法律文件研究

本文回顾了下湄公河流域合作开发与管理的有关国际组织机构变化，分析了《下湄公河流域持续发展合作协定》诞生及新湄委会成立的背景；对比了该流域有关水源及相关资源开发利用和管理的法律法规条款变化。     

独龙江流域综合考察取得丰硕成果

1988年,由云南省地理研究所赵维城副研究员和中科院昆明植物所李恒研究员共同向国家自然科学基金委申请《独龙江流域资源与环境研究》课题,于当年获准资助。1989年,该课题又获得云南省科委应用基础研究基金资助。课题分地质、地矿、地震、自然地理、地貌、气候、水文、植物、土壤、农村经济、旅游资源、山地灾害和独龙族民族植物学等号题,对全流域的资源与环境进行综合考察研究。独龙江为纵贯云南西北角的国际河流,国内干流长178.6km,原名俅河。独龙江流域总面积     

Delineating key determinants of domestic fuelwood consumption of rural households in western Himalaya-policy implications

A study was carried out in district Samba of Western Himalayan province of Jammu and Kashmir of India.The data were collected in an interview schedule in personal interview with 180 household heads.The association between the level of fuelwood consumption（low versus high consumption） and different factors,each individually,was investigated using chi-square test of association at 0.001 level of significance.It was found that out of 25 socio-economic,biophysical and alternate fuel factors,15 factors（each individually） significantly influenced the domestic fuelwood consumption.Logistic regression models of alternate fuel use,social,economic and biophysical factors were developed to identify key variables influencing fuelwood consumption levels within each respective category.A composite model was also developed to identify key factors when all variables in all the pre-said categories were considered simultaneously.Surprisingly,in contrast to expectation the model with alternate fuel use did not provide a good fit.The biophysical model also did not provide a good fit.The economic and composite models were the same with equal level of accuracy of predication.This implies that economic aspects,rather than the availability of alternate fuels,dominate fuelwood consumption levels of rural households.Strategies to increase the exposure of the head of household to outside world needs to formulated to reduce the domestic fuelwood consumption levels.Households nearer to state forests are to be educated about efficient use of fuelwood and be encouraged to intensify use of Liquified Petroleum Gas.The wider implications of study are：the availability of alternate fuels is not a necessary condition to decrease household level domestic fuelwood consumption.Economic factors needs to be considered in designing strategies to reduce fuelwood consumption.Increased employment opportunities would increase the opportunity cost of fuelwood collection and this would reduce its use.     

纵向岭谷区地表格局的生态效应及其区域分异

中国西南纵向高耸山岭与深切河谷并列排布的特殊地表格局对该区自然环境与生态地理区域分异的效应明显。利用纵向岭谷区1:5 万DEM数据、建站以来至2010 的气象观测数据、水文观测资料、MOD13 与MOD17 的NDVI与NPP产品以及1:100 万植被类型数据等,选取地表大气水汽含量、降水量、干湿指数、地表径流等水分指标,平均气温、年积温等温度指标以及太阳总辐射等热量指标,基于ANUSPLIN样条函数、GIS空间分析、小波分析、景观格局分析等方法,分析该区水热格局、生态系统结构与功能的地域分异特征及其主控因子,揭示地表格局对生态地理要素区域分异的效应。结果表明：受地表格局的影响,纵向岭谷区的水分、温度与热量都表现出明显的沿纬线方向间断式差异和经线方向连续式延伸的分布特征,纵向山系与河谷对地表主要自然物质和能量输送具有南北向通道作用和扩散效应以及东西向阻隔作用和屏障效应;特殊地表格局对植被景观多样性、生态系统结构与功能的空间格局产生重要影响,是植被景观多样性与生态系统空间分布的主要控制因子;小波方差分析反映了环境因子以及NDVI、NPP的空间各向异性,而小波一致性分析揭示了NDVI与NPP空间分布的控制因子,及其控制程度的定量关系。纵向岭谷特殊地表格局是该区生态地理区域分异的主要影响因素,在地带性规律与以“通道—阻隔”作用为主要特征的非地带性规律共同作用下,形成了纵向岭谷区生态地理区域系统的特殊空间特征。     

通过水资源整体多目标利用和管理推进澜沧江—湄公河流域的持续发展

澜沧江──湄公河是中国和东南亚地区最为重要的国际河流，目前成为国际上众多国家、国际组织关注和投资的热点地区［１，３］。按亚洲开发银行（ＡＤＢ）组织的“大湄公河次区域合作计划”［４］直接影响地域２３２×１０４ｋｍ２，人口超过２．２亿，大范围内的自然环境、社会和经济状况都将发生巨大变化。１９９５年４月５日下湄公河四国签署的《湄公河流域持续发展合作协定》［５］，为该流域区的持续发展注入了新机。据初步分析，如果以水资源多目标综合利用为目的进行整体规划和管理，将能源开发集中在澜沧江干流和下湄公河支流，在洞里萨湖修建拦河闸堰，在湄公河三角洲修建泄洪道，在大城市与人口和耕地集中而易遭受洪水危害的干流两侧兴建防洪堤，并加强水文、气象预测和预报，则下湄公河流域的电力需求及灌溉、洪水、咸水入侵以及土壤酸性水危害等问题，在很大程度上均可得到解决，无需兴建庞大的下湄公河干流梯级电站（水库），这不仅可以避免大量的资金投入、大规模的移民和土地淹没，而且可以阻止大坝对湄公河水生生物的危害，促进流域持续发展。     

纵向岭谷区北回归线一带年降水区域分异特征

利用纵向岭谷区北回归线沿线及南北两侧的24 个站点1961-2007 时段月降水资料,基于全部站点的年降水主要特征统计,以及北回归线沿线的9 个站点的年降水变化的趋势性和阶段性检验、9 个站点间的年降水和5-10 月各月降水序列的相关性检验,分析研究区的年降水及变化分异特征。结果表明：研究区年降水主要特征及其年际变化,呈现出西部、中部、东部的空间分异,即三个区域各自内部自相似度高,而三个区域之间分异明显。北回归线沿线9 个站点的年降水序列都未表现出明显的“突变趋势性-阶段性”变化。研究区中部“岭-谷”相间的地形格局,对中部区域降水空间分异产生一定的影响,但相邻站点间多年际降水序列呈高度相关,意味着控制中部区域降水的决定性因素并不存在明显分异,间隔分布的“岭-谷”地形会带来局地性降水量的分异。     

澜沧江水资源系统变化与大湄公河次区域合作的关联分析

针对澜沧江-湄公河水资源系统变化的跨境影响这一受到国际社会,特别是下游国关注的问题,结合流域各国水需求及区域性协定之规定,对比分析澜沧江大坝建设后对径流的影响,发现：（1）年出境水量呈小幅增长趋势,总体上有利于下游水资源利用;（2）个别年份枯季出境水量明显减少的主要原因是降水少和个别电站运行失误所致,电站本质上不会对下游用水和生态产生实质性危害;（3）出境水量变化主要对下游中上段产生明显影响,越往下游影响力越小;（4）出境水质稳定。建议：尽早制定流域综合规划和国际水分配方案;合理调整水库运行方案,避免出境水量或水位的大幅变化,减少跨境负面影响,维护区域合作。     

流域水文模型中的土壤质地转换与饱和导水率Ks值确定

构建于GIS基础之上的分布式水文模型,近年来得到了普遍的应用和较快的发展。土壤质地数据是模型构建的重要参数,但实际运用中,常存在土壤数据多种统计口径并存、与模型运算所需的数据类型不一致等问题,限制了模型的应用和模拟的精度。根据土壤典型剖面值,利用3次样条函数曲线插值得出了模型所需土壤粒径分布。根据粒径组成,使用NeroTheta软件计算出饱和导水率凡值。为构建分布式水文模型数据库,确定主要土壤参数提供了简便有效的方法。     

Changing water regime and adaptation strategies in Upper Mustang Valley of Upper Kaligandaki Basin in Nepal

Recent climate change has brought changes to the water regime that has affected the traditional agro-pastoral production systems and livelihoods in the Upper Kaligandaki Basin of the Nepal Himalayas. Based on fieldwork and available meteorological and hydrological data, this paper examines the changing water regime and various adaptation strategies that local farmers have adopted in this cold arid region. Increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall and snowfall have resulted in a negative water balance. In this scenario, farmers have implemented six major adaptive strategies in the trans-Himalayan Upper Mustang Valley.