Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.     

Model analysis of the measured concentration of organic gases in the Norwegian Arctic

A 2-D meridional model for the chemistry and transport in the troposphere is used to study the seasonal variation of the concentration of organic gases like C₂H₂, C₂H₆, C₃H₈, C₆H₆, C₇H₈. CHCl₃ and C₂Cl₄ at high latitudes. The anthropogenic sources for these species were estimated, and the temporal and latitudinal distribution of OH and O₃ was calculated using a complex photochemical reaction system. There is fair agreement between the calculated annual variation and the measured concentrations for C₂H₂, C₂H₆, C₃H₈, C₇H₈ and C₂Cl₄ at Spitsbergen during July 1982 and March/April 1983, with a distinct late winter maximum and summer minimum. For CHCl₃, the direct anthropogenic source is minor compared to indirect anthropogenic or natural sources. For benzene, emission in car exhaust is important, but other anthropogenic sources are required for the calculations to agree with the measurements. Measured C₂H₄ and C₃H₆ concentrations are much higher than the calculated ones based on anthropogenic emissions, and show opposite seasonal trends. This indicates biogenic sources for these compounds.A buildup of PAN (300 pptv) is calculated at high latitudes during winter. This makes it the dominant source for NO_x as the temperature increases in the spring. NO_x is found to be a limiting factor for O₃ production at high latitudes during spring.     

Modelling of the long-range transport of peroxyacetylnitrate to Scandinavia

Model calculations and field measurements have shown that when air masses accumulate emissions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides from sources in continental Europe and then move towards Scandinavia without any synoptic scale break-up of the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g. frontal passages), elevated PAN concentrations in southern Norway or Sweden in the range 1–5 ppb may be caused by long-range transport. The model calculations showed that over sea, the persistence of PAN was comparable to that of ozone in an ageing air mass when the temperatures were fairly low (5–10°C). At higher temperatures the thermal decomposition of PAN made the compound less persistent than ozone. Over land, the situation may be different since the ground removal is typically three times more efficient for ozone than for PAN.According to the model, the concentration of PAN did not change very much when an ageing air mass was exposed to moderate emissions of hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, or both. The concentration of PAN decreased less than the concentration of ozone when an ageing air mass was exposed to high emissions of nitrogen oxides.     

Convective Redistribution of Ozone and Oxides of Nitrogen in the Troposphere over Europe in Summer and Fall

The fluxes of ozone and NO_x out of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over Europe are calculated in a mesoscale chemical transport model (MCT) and compared with the net chemical production or destruction of ozone and the emissions of precursors within the ABL for two 10 days' periods which had quite different synoptic situations and levels of photochemical activity (1–10 July 1991 (JUL91) and 26 October–4 November 1994 (ON94)). Over the European continent, about 8% of the NO_x emissions were brought from the ABL to the free troposphere as NO_x, while about 15% of the NO_x emissions were brought to the free troposphere as NO_y–NO_x, i.e. as PAN or HNO₃. The convection dominates over the synoptic scale vertical advection as a transport mechanism both for NO_x and NO_y out of the boundary layer in the summertime high pressure situation (JUL91), while in the fall situation (ON94) the convective part was calculated to be the smallest. NO_x was almost completely transformed to NO_y–NO_x or removed within the ABL. Also for NO_y the major part of the atmospheric cycle is confined to the ABL both for JUL91 and ON94. The vertical transport time out of the ABL is of the order of 100h both for the total model domain and over the European continent. The net convective exchange of ozone from the ABL is not a dominant process for the amount of ozone in the ABL averaged over 10 days and the whole domain, but convection reduces the maximum ozone concentration in episodes significantly. The ozone producing efficiency of NO_x is calculated to increase with height to typically 15–20 in the upper half of the troposphere from around 5 in the ABL, but in the middle free troposphere the concentration of NO_x is often too low to cause net chemical formation of ozone there.     

Comparison of Five Eulerian Air Pollution Forecasting Systems for the Summer of 1999 Using the German Ozone Monitoring Data

Eulerian state-of-the-art air pollution forecasting systems on the European scale are operated routinely by several countries in Europe. DWD and FUB, both Germany, NERI, Denmark, NILU, Norway, and SMHI, Sweden, operate some of these systems. To apply such modeling systems, e.g. for regulatory purposes according to new EU directives, an evaluation and comparison of the model systems is fundamental in order to assess their reliability. One step in this direction is presented in this study: The model forecasts from all five systems have been compared to measurements of ground level ozone in Germany. The outstanding point in this investigation is the availability of a huge amount of data – from forecasts by the different model systems and from observations. This allows for a thorough interpretation of the findings and assures the significance of the observed features. Data from more than 300 measurement stations for a 5-month period (May–September 1999) of the German monitoring networks have been used in this comparison. Different spatial and temporal statistical parameters were applied in the evaluation. Generally, it was found that the most comprehensive models gave the best results. However, the less comprehensive and computational cheaper models also produced good results. The extensive comparison made it possible to point out weak points in the different models and to describe the individual model behavior for a full summer period in a climatological sense. The comparison also gave valuable information for an assessment of individual measurement stations and complete monitoring networks in terms of the representativeness of the observation data.