Intelligent ship traffic monitoring for oil spill prevention: risk based decision support building on AIS

The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vard? VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?".     

Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.     

Identification of estrogen-like alkylphenols in produced water from offshore oil installations

Produced water released into the sea from oil installations contains a vast number of organic compounds. This work focuses on the analysis and identification of phenols in produced water, in particular long-chain para-substituted alkylphenols, which act as endocrine disruptors for marine biota. Some alkylphenol standards, unavailable commercially, have been synthesised and some compounds of interest identified. However, a complete identification is not possible since conventional GC techniques cannot achieve the desired degree of separation. An overview of the levels of the 52 known alkylphenols in produced water from nine oil installations in the North and Norwegian Seas has been made. The previously unidentified alkylphenols in produced water have been characterised by means of alkylphenol retention indices (APRI) and mass spectrometry, and their total amounts estimated for the same nine locations. Our results confirm the presence of naphthols and other as yet unidentified compounds in produced water, while thiophenols were not detected by the used technique.     

Development of a methodology for assessing the environmental impact of radioactivity in Northern Marine environments

The requirement to assess the impacts of radioactivity in the environment explicitly and transparently is now generally accepted by the scientific community. A recently developed methodology for achieving this end for marine ecosystems is presented within this paper. With its clear relationship to an overarching system, the marine impact assessment is built around components of environmental transfer, ecodosimetry and radiobiological effects appraisal relying on the use of "reference organisms". Concentration factors (CFs), dynamic models and, in cases where parameters are missing, allometry have been employed in the consideration of radionuclide transfer. Dose conversion coefficients (DCCs) have been derived for selected flora and fauna using, inter alia, dose attenuation and chord distribution functions. The calculated dose-rates can be contextualised through comparison with dose-rates arising from natural background and chronic dose-rates at which biological effects have been observed in selected "umbrella" endpoints.     

Patterns of Cenozoic sediment flux from western Scandinavia

The significance of variations in the sediment flux from western Scandinavia during the Cenozoic has been a matter of debate for decades. Here we compile the sediment flux using seismic data, boreholes and results from other publications and discuss the relative importance of causal agents such as tectonism, climate and climate change. Western Scandinavia, the northern British Isles and the Faeroe‐Shetland Platform were significant sediment sources during the Paleocene, which is well founded in tectonic causes related to the opening of the North Atlantic. From the Eocene and onward, variations in the sediment flux from western Scandinavia correlate better with climate and climate change. During the Eocene, sediment production was low. From the late Eocene onward, increased seasonality may have contributed to stimulating the sediment flux. Significant climatic cooling episodes correlate with Oligocene deposits in the North Sea, the post‐mid‐Miocene Molo and Kai Formations of the Norwegian Shelf, the southern North Sea delta system and large volumes of the Late Pliocene‐Holocene Naust Formation. The sediment flux from Scandinavia during the Cenozoic is in general agreement with the detrital flux to the world's oceans. Furthermore, the large variations in the size of sediment catchment areas as well as the possibility of submarine and glacial erosion must be incorporated to understand regional variations in climate driven sediment flux.     

Validation of OML,AERMOD/PRIME and MISKAM Using the Thompson Wind-Tunnel Dataset for Simple Stack-Building Configurations

A comprehensive dataset on dispersion behind rectangular buildings has been used to analyse the performance of two dispersion models in respect to their handling of building effects: the Danish OML model and the US AERMOD model with the PRIME building algorithm; additionally, the German MISKAM model has been assessed. OML and AERMOD are regulatory plume models with limited requirements in terms of input and computing resources, whereas MISKAM is a computational fluid dynamical model, and as such much more demanding. For most scenarios considered, the degree of misprediction in respect to the maximum concentrations is less than a factor of two for OML and AERMOD. However, in respect to the concentration at a specific location, especially in the near field, both models often result in larger mispredictions. MISKAM provides more accurate predictions.     

Concentration Fluctuations in Smoke Plumes Released Near the Ground

Near-ground artificial cloud releases in the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer were investigated experimentally by Lidar measurement techniques. Simple scaling relations between the average concentration and the lowest order moments are suggested by simple analytical models, and the experimental results are tested against these hypotheses. We find strong evidence for a simple scaling of the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis with the average concentrations at the downwind distances observed in our experiments. Near-ground concentration fluctuations in fixed as well as moving frames of references are investigated. The scaling is supported by data from several experimental sites and different atmospheric stability conditions. One conclusion of the study is that relatively accurate estimates for the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis can be obtained for the concentration fluctuations, given a reliable estimate of the space-time varying average concentration field.     

Structure, mineralogy and dynamics of the lowermost mantle

The 2004-discovery of the post-perovskite transition initiated a vigorous effort in high-pressure, high-temperature mineralogy and mineral physics, seismology and geodynamics aimed at an improved understanding of the structure and dynamics of the D"-zone. The phase transitions in basaltic and peridotitic lithologies under pT-conditions of the lowermost mantle can explain a series of previously enigmatic seismic discontinuities. Some of the other seismic properties of the lowermost mantle are also consistent with the changes in physical properties related to the perovskite (pv) to post-perovskite (ppv) transition. After more than 25 years of seismic tomography, the lowermost mantle structure involving the sub-Pacific and sub-African Large Low Shear-Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs) has become a robust feature. The two large antipodal LLSVPs are surrounded by wide zones of high Vs under the regions characterized by Mesozoic to recent subduction. The D" is further characterized by a negative correlation between shear and bulk sound velocity which could be partly related to an uneven distribution of pv and ppv. Ppv has higher VS and lower $ V_{\Phi } $ (bulk sound speed) than pv and may be present in thicker layers in the colder regions of D". Seismic observations and geodynamic modelling indicate relatively steep and sharp boundaries of the 200-500 km thick LLSVPs. These features, as well as independent evidence for their long-term stability, indicate that they are intrinsically denser than the surrounding mantle. Mineral physics data demonstrate that basaltic lithologies are denser than peridotite throughout the lowermost mantle and undergo incremental densification due to the pvppv- transition at slightly shallower levels than peridotite. The density contrasts may facilitate the partial separation and accumulation of basaltic patches and slivers at the margins of the thermochemical piles (LLSVPs). The slopes of these relatively steep margins towards the adjacent horizontal core-mantle boundary (CMB) constitute a curved (concave) thermal boundary layer, favourable for the episodic generation of large mantle plumes. Reconstruction of the original positions of large igneous provinces formed during the last 300 Ma, using a paleomagnetic global reference frame, indicates that nearly all of them erupted above the margins of the LLSVPs. Fe/Mg-partitioning between pv, ppv and ferropericlase (fp) is important for the phase and density relations of the lower mantle. Electronic spin transition of Fe2+ and Fe3+ in the different phases may influence the Fe/Mg-partitioning and the radiative thermal conductivity in the lowermost mantle. The experimental determination of the $ {K_D}{^{Fe/Mg}_{pv/fp}}\left[ { = {{\left( {Fe/Mg} \right)}_{pv}}/{{\left( {Fe/Mg} \right)}_{fp}}} \right] $ and $ {K_D}{^{Fe/Mg}_{ppv/fp}} $ is technologically challenging. Most studies have found a $ {K_D}{^{Fe/Mg}_{pv/fp}} $ of 0.1-0.3 and a higher Fe/Mg-ratio in ppv than in pv. The experimental temperature is important, with the partitioning approaching unity with increasing temperature. Although charge-coupled substitutions of the trivalent cations Al and Fe³⁺ seem to be important in both pv and ppv (especially in basaltic compositions), the complicating crystal-chemistry effects of these cations are not fully clarified. The two anti-podal thermochemical piles as well as the thin ultra-low velocity zones next to the CMB may represent geochemically enriched reservoirs that have remained largely isolated from the convecting mantle through a major part of Earth history. The existence of such “hidden” reservoirs have previously been suggested in order to account for the imbalance between the inferred composition of the geochemically accessible convecting mantle and the observed heat flow from the Earth and chondritic models for the bulk Earth.