Seasonally and spatially referenced estimates of recreational shore-angling effort,catch composition,catch rates and total catch in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area,South Africa

A roving creel survey of the recreational shore fishery along the 16.4-km coastline in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area on the south coast of South Africa was conducted from 2009 to 2011. Some 838 patrols were stratified equally among months, areas and years, but intentionally biased towards weekends. Angler densities at Buffalo Bay and Groenvlei were 0.59 and 0.28 anglers km?1, respectively. Weekend densities were double to quadruple weekday densities and fishing during winter was more popular than during summer. Area, habitat and distance to access points explained variation in angler densities. Shannon–Wiener diversity in catches declined from 2.18 in an earlier (1993–2002) survey to 1.79. Although the order of species abundance in the catches remained largely unchanged, blacktail Diplodus capensis dominance increased to 57.3% by number, at the expense of galjoen Dichistius capensis. Habitat explained 27% of the variance in catch composition. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the top nine species ranged from 0.19 to 6.35 fish 100-h?1. The CPUE of all species, except spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii, declined. Blacktail and galjoen CPUE declined by 17% and 77%, respectively. The total catch estimate was 2 986 fish y?1. Transgressions of size limits were common. The results suggest that the fishery is overexploited and that catch rates are declining.     

Diet and gill morphology of the East Coast redeye round herring Etrumeus wongratanai off KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Stomach content analyses and measurements of gillraker morphology were used to assess the diet and feeding ecology of the East Coast redeye round herring Etrumeus wongratanai and provide data for comparisons with other small pelagic fishes off South Africa. Samples were collected by jigging from a kayak off Scottburgh, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), over the period July 2013–May 2014. In total, 66 stomachs (containing 4 407 prey items) and 66 gill arches were examined. Stomach content analyses indicated that East Coast redeye round herring, at the time of sampling, fed on large (1 500–2 500?µm) particles, with ～2 500?µm particles making the greatest contribution to dietary carbon. The species feeds on larger particles than do anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax, but on particles of a similar size to those consumed by West Coast redeye round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi. There were significant differences in mean gillraker gaps between East Coast redeye round herring and both sardine and anchovy, but not between East Coast and West Coast redeye round herring. The differences in gillraker gaps between East Coast redeye round herring, sardine and anchovy are indicative of resource partitioning through differential feeding, based on zooplankton size. The data suggest that there is no resource partitioning between East and West coast redeye round herring, indicating that competition is likely to occur between them. However, such competition is minimised by limited spatial overlap between these two species.     

Drought forecasting through statistical models using standardised precipitation index: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Quality and reliable drought prediction is essential for mitigation strategies and planning in disaster-stricken regions globally. Prediction models such as empirical or data-driven models play a fundamental role in forecasting drought. However, selecting a suitable prediction model remains a challenge because of the lack of succinct information available on model performance. Therefore, this review evaluated the best model for drought forecasting and determined which differences if any were present in model performance using standardised precipitation index (SPI). In addition, the most effective combination of the SPI with its respective timescale and lead time was investigated. The effectiveness of data-driven models was analysed using meta-regression analysis by applying a linear mixed model to the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error of the validated model results. Wavelet-transformed neural networks had superior performance with the highest correlation and minimum error. Preprocessing data to eliminate non-stationarity performed substantially better than did the regular artificial neural network (ANN) model. Additionally, the best timescale to calculate the SPI was 24 and 12 months and a lead time of 1–3 months provided the most accurate forecasts. Studies from China and Sicily had the most variation based on geographical location as a random effect; while studies from India rendered consistent results overall. Variation in the result can be attributed to geographical differences, seasonal influence, incorporation of climate indices and author bias. Conclusively, this review recommends use of the wavelet-based ANN (WANN) model to forecast drought indices.

     

Computer-composite mapping for geologists

A computer program for overlaying maps has been tested and evaluated as a means for producing geologic derivative maps. Four maps of the Sugar House Quadrangle, Utah, were combined, using the Multi-Scale Data Analysis and Mapping Program, in a single composite map that shows the relative stability of the land surface during earthquakes. Computer-composite mapping can provide geologists with a powerful analytical tool and a flexible graphic display technique. Digitized map units can be shown singly, grouped with different units from the same map, or combined with units from other source maps to produce composite maps. The mapping program permits the user to assign various values to the map units and to specify symbology for the final map. Because of its flexible storage, easy manipulation, and capabilities of graphic output, the composite-mapping technique can readily be applied to mapping projects in sedimentary and crystalline terranes, as well as to maps showing mineral resource potential.     

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.     

Relation between responses in the neutral red retention test and the comet assay and life history parameters of Daphnia magna.

Responses of the neutral red retention (NRR) assay as test for lysosomal stability and the comet assay as test for DNA integrity were measured in the water flea, Daphnia magna, and compared with mortality and effects on population growth rate during short- or long-term exposure to seven different toxicants. The NRR test and the comet assay were performed with fresh preparations of pieces of tissue from the digestive tract or with cell preparations from whole daphnias. Five toxicants caused responses of the NRR test or the comet assay after short-term exposure at concentrations below the acute toxicity level. Preliminary results of long-term exposure experiments suggest that these biomarker responses can be related to chronic effects on survival and/or reproduction of D. magna. This type of research should provide the basis for future use of the NRR test and the comet assay as early warning biomarkers for effects of toxicants on Daphnia populations.     

Zinc speciation in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

Measurements of zinc and zinc complexation by natural organic ligands in the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean were made using cathodic stripping voltammetry with ligand competition. Total zinc concentrations ranged from 0.3 nM in surface waters to 2 nM at 2000 m for open-ocean waters, whilst nearer the English coast, zinc concentrations reached 1.5 nM in the upper water column. In open-ocean waters zinc speciation was dominated by complexation to a natural organic ligand with conditional stability constant (log K_ZnL′) ranging between 10.0 and 10.5 and with ligand concentrations ranging between 0.4 and 2.5 nM. The ligand was found to be uniformly distributed throughout the water column even though zinc concentrations increased with depth. Organic ligand concentrations measured in this study are similar to those published for the North Pacific. However the log K_ZnL′ values for the North Atlantic are almost and order of magnitude lower than those reported by Bruland [Bruland, K.W., 1989. Complexation of zinc by natural organic-ligands in the central North Pacific. Limnol. Oceanogr., 34, 269–285.] using anodic stripping voltammetry for the North Pacific. Free zinc ion concentrations were low in open-ocean waters (6–20 pM) but are not low enough to limit growth of a typical oceanic species of phytoplankton.     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.