BCC_CSM1.1对10年尺度全球及区域温度的预测研究

近期10～30年时间尺度的年代际预测是第五次耦合模式国际比较计划(CMIP5)重要内容之一.按照CMIP5试验要求,国家气候中心利用气候系统模式BCC_ CSM1.1完成并提交了年代际试验结果.本文评估了该模式年代际试验对10年尺度全球及区域地表温度的预测能力,并通过与20世纪历史气候模拟试验的对比分析,研究模式模拟对海洋初始观测状态的依赖程度.分析结果表明:(1)在有、无海洋初始化条件下,模式均能模拟出1960～2005年间全球10年平均实测地表温度的变暖趋势,但在有海洋初始化条件下,可以明显减小BCC_ CSM1.1模式模拟的全球升温趋势,使得年代际试验比历史试验的结果更接近观测值.这一特     

西藏地区雷暴与大气热源关系研究

利用1979～2008年NCEP/NCAR全球再分析月平均资料和雷暴记录资料,运用相关分析和合成分析等方法分别对西藏地区大气热源和雷暴日数的关系以及热源强弱不同时期雷暴日数变化特征进行了分析.结果表明,大气热源与雷暴日数存在着明显的正相关关系,月相关系数高达0.86.在雷暴高发区的那曲东部、拉萨、日喀则中部、山南地区东北部和林芝地区西北部,相关系数均超过了0.4.进一步分析表明,当大气热源强值年时,整个日喀则地区、拉萨地区、山南地区、那曲中西部和东部地区以及昌都地区中西部,雷暴日数是偏多的.当大气热源偏弱时,雷暴日数在日喀则中部地区减少最为明显,其次在日喀则南木林县东北部和林芝西北部地区.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系

将东西向海平面气压差与低纬度高、低层纬向风切变相结合 ,定义了东亚季风指数 ,该季风指数较好地反映了东亚冬、夏季风变化。其中 ,夏季风指数年际异常对西太平洋副热带高压南北位置变化和长江中下游旱涝具有较强的反映能力。分析表明 :东亚夏季风年际变化与印度洋 -西太平洋上空反 Walker环流及夏季越赤道南北半球间的季风环流呈显著正相关关系。在强、弱异常东亚夏季风年份 ,异常的 Walker环流在西太平洋上的辐合 (辐散 )中心在垂直方向不重合 ,高层 ( 2 0 0 h Pa)速度势与东亚夏季风显著相关区域位于西北太平洋上 ,该异常环流的高层的辐合 (辐散 )通过改变低层空气质量而影响夏季 50 0 h Pa西北太平洋副热带高压。采用 SVD分析进一步发现 :与海温耦合的异常 Walker环流在西太平洋上空的上升支表现出南北半球关于赤道非对称结构 ,亚澳季风区受该异常 Walker环流控制。因而 ,东亚季风与热带海气相互作用可直接通过这种纬向非对称的 Walker环流发生联系。     

Hydraulic and flood-loss modeling of levee,floodplain, and river management strategies,Middle Mississippi River,USA

In this investigation, four scenarios were used to quantify the balance between the benefits of levees for flood protection and their potential to increase flood risk using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard flood-loss software and hydraulic modeling of the Middle Mississippi River (MMR). The goals of this study were (1) to quantify the flood exposure under different flood-control configurations and (2) to assess the relative contributions of various engineered structures and flood-loss strategies to potential flood losses. Removing all the flood-control structures along the MMR, without buyouts or other mitigation, reduced the average flood stages between 2.3 m (100-year flood) and 2.5 m (500-year), but increased the potential flood losses by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by 155 million for the 100-year flood, but were decreased by $109 million for the 500-year flood. Thus, agricultural levees along the MMR protect against small- to medium-size floods (up to the ~100-year flood level) but cause more damage than they prevent during large floods such as the 500-year flood. Buyout costs for the all the buildings within the 500-year floodplain downstream of urban flood-control structures near St. Louis are ~40% less than the cost of repairing the buildings damaged by the 500-year flood. This suggests large-scale buyouts could be the most cost-effective option for flood loss mitigation for properties currently protected by agricultural levees.     

Geochemical signatures of Mesoproterozoic siliciclastic rocks of the Kaimur Group of the Vindhyan Supergroup,Central India

The Upper Kaimur Group of the Vindhyan Supergroup in Central India, primarily consists of three rock types-DhandraulSandstone, Scarp Sandstone and Bijaigarh Shale. Mineralogically and geochemically, they are quartz arenite, sublitharenite to litharenite and litharenite to shale in composition, respectively. The A-CN-K ternary plot and CIA and ICV values suggest that the similar source rocks suffered severe chemical weathering, under a hot-humid climate in an acidic environment with higher P _{CO 2}, which facilitated high sediment influx in the absence of land plants. Various geochemical discriminants, elemental ratios like K₂O/Na₂O, Al₂O₃/TiO₂, SiO₂/MgO, La/Sc, Th/Sc, Th/Cr, Gd_N/Yb_N and pronounced negative Eu anomalies indicate the rocks to be of post-Archean Proterozoic granitic source, with a minor contribution of granodioritic input, in a passive margin setting. The sediments of the Upper Kaimur Group were probably deposited in the interglacial period in between the Paleoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic glacial epochs.     

Quantitative modeling of groundwater in Satluj River basin of Rupnagar district of Punjab using remote sensing and geographic information system

Water is a fluctuating resource making it difficult to measure in time and in space. To demonstrate the efficiency of the geographic information system (GIS) for groundwater studies, information on the parameters controlling groundwater such as lithology, geomorphology and lineament analysis were analyzed. LISS-III and Landsat satellite image of the area was used to infer information on the geologic lineaments and geomorphology. To delineate linear features enhancement and direction, filtering was performed on single bands of Landsat images. Thematic maps for geology, slope, geomorphology and lineament were prepared and integrated in GIS by assigning the weights and ranking to various parameters controlling the occurrence of groundwater to generate the groundwater potential map for the study area. The results indicate that the floodplain of river and its adjoining areas have very good groundwater potential, whereas the steeply sloping area in the northern part having high relief and slope possesses poor groundwater potential.     

Influence of afforestation on water regime in Jizera Catchments,Czech Republic

This paper studies the influence of afforestation on the water regime in two catchments in the Jizera Mountains that are similar in size and altitude but have different afforestation pattern. In this paper a range of different modelling tools is used to establish whether the differences in catchment water regime can be quantified and attributed to differences in catchment characteristics. Frequency analysis of low and high flows and a number and duration of flows over a threshold value are used to look for the differences in flow regime in both catchments. Low flow conditions are modelled using the Wittenberg nonlinear store approach. A rainfall-runoff process is modelled using a Data Based Mechanistic approach. The results indicate that the differences in the catchment response to external climatic factors outweigh the influence of land use apart from the low flows, where the changes in the response might be attributed to afforestation.     

Evaluating the suitability of different terrains for sustaining human settlements according to the local elevation range in China using the ASTER GDEM

The topographical suitability assessment of human settlements(SAHS) creates a solid foundation for regional population distribution and socio-economic development. Local elevation range(LER) is an important factor that can be used to assess the suitability of different terrains for sustaining human settlements. However, current digital elevation model(DEM)-based LER products suffer from some challenges typically because of their subjectively selected neighborhood scales and coarser spatial resolution. In this study, we initially determined the optimal statistical window and then calculated the appropriate LER with the finer resolution data of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global DEM(ASTER GDEM) products for China. Then, the appropriate LER was used to evaluate the topographical SAHS and its correlations with the national gridded population distribution(1 km × 1 km) in 2010. The results show that the optimal statistical window for calculating a 1 arc-second(about 30 m) resolution GDEM LER for China can be determined using a 51 × 51 grid unit(width × height) within a rectangular neighborhood, corresponding to an area of about 2.34 km~2. Secondly, the LER values in the southern and western China were greater than those of the north and east, showing a trend which consistently reflects the general spatial features of landforms. Finally, the relationship between GDEM LER and population density was highly correlated with the R~2 value of 0.81. It showed that 85.22% of the Chinese population was located in areas where the LER is lower than 500 m. The topographically suitable area within China decreased from the southeastern coastal zone towards the northwestern inland areas due to transition from plains and basins to plateaus and mountains. The total area of moderate to high suitable level was 423.84 × 10~4 km~2, or 44.15% of the total land area, with 88.17% of the national population. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of appropriate LER in evaluating the topographical SAHS as well as its significant impact on population distribution.     

Analysis of sedimentary facies and depositional environments of Paleogene sequence of Cambay basin,India

A study on the sedimentary facies characterization and depositional environment interpretations for the K#Field (K-Oil Field) in Cambay petroleum basin of western onshore, India was conducted based on the sub-surface data from drilled wells, including well logs, borehole images, cores and the regional knowledge of the basin. In this work, an effort is made to integrate the current data from seismics and well logging, to study and analyze its depositional environments and establish the petroleum systems. The study regions for the present work are K45 and K48 blocks. The target strata includes 2 oil-bearing formations of Paleogene, which is about 3600 ft; they are M#Fm (M-Formation) of the Eocene and N#Fm (N-Formation) of Oligocene, subdivided into 11 zones. The sediment fill is mostly of Tertiary. The research attempts to decipher the oil - depositional source correlation problems of the basin. Sedimentary models were established referring to the core analysis, core photographs and well logs. Reservoir and heterogeneity study included reservoir lithology features, physical properties and pore structure features.Well facies analysis of oil well WELL-0297 and WELL-0129 was done and the results were analyzed for further drilling of new wells for oil and gas exploration. The study found that the Eocene, Oligocene, Miocene and Paleogene are fluviatile facies sand and mud interbed sediment with the thickness 2000-4000 ft, which are main oil-bearing formations in these areas. Studies concluded that the fluvial reservoirs of the K#Field are characterized by large variations from laterally extensive bodies with good interconnectedness and high net-to-gross ratios, multi-storey ribbon bodies with poor interconnections and low net-to-gross ratios.