青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

浙江岱衢洋大黄鱼 Pseudosciaena crocea (Richardson) 个体生殖力的研究

种群的补充、生长和死亡是决定种群数量及其变动类型的三个相互联系过程。要阐明种群补充过程的基本理律,就必须对它的各个环节加以深入的研究。生殖力的变动及其调节规律就是补充过程的最主要环节之一。 从1958年秋季开始,我们进行了大黄鱼生殖力种内规律的研究。本文是其中的一个组成部分,在于研究浙江舟山渔场岱衢洋产卵场的春宗与秋宗大黄鱼的个体生植力变动规律,着重阐明一个种群内个体生殖力的变动与调节规律及其影响因子,探讨同一地理种群的不同生物学宗个体生殖力变动规律的差异及其适应意义o 春宗大黄鱼共观察分析了304尾;秋宗大黄鱼由于取样不易,仅观察分析了41尾。所据以观察分析的资料均系未出现透明和游离状卵子的典型IV期卵巢。卵子的计数是采用重量取样法,取样重为0.2-0.3克。卵巢采用5%福尔马林液固定保存,称重前几天移入80%酒精中,这样可以减少因水分重量所产生的误差。取样时先除去卵巢外膜井取卵巢中部卵子作为计数样品。凡是开始累积卵黄颗粒的小型卵子到半充满与完全充满卵黄的中型及大型卵子都进行计算,卵径范围为0.16一0.99毫米。     

Seasonal and annual variations of marine sinking particulate flux during 1993~1996 in the central South China Sea

A total of 67 samples from the upper and lower sediment traps in the central South China Sea were analyzed, which were collected during 1993~1996. It is indicated that the distribution of stable isotope values, surface primary productivity, fluxes of total particulate matter, carbonate, biogenic opal, organic carbon, planktonic foraminiferal species and their total amount exhibit obviously seasonal and annual fluctuations. High values of the fluxes occurred in the prevailing periods of the northeastern and southwestern monsoons, and the low values occurred during the periods between the two monsoons. The fluxes of some planktonic foraminiferal species (Globigerinoides sacculifer, G. ruber, Globigerinita glutinata, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei) and their percentages also exhibit two prominent peaks during the prevailing periods of the northeastern and southwestern monsoons respectively, while those of Globigerina bulloides, Globorotalia menardii and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata only exhibit one peak in the prevailing periods of the northeastern monsoon. In addition, fluxes and percentages of Globigerinoides sacculifer and Globorotalia menardii as well as the fluxes of carbonate and total amount of planktonic foraminifera decrease gradually from 1993 to 1996, and those of Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata and biogenic opal increase gradually from 1993 to 1996. The fluxes of carbonate and organic carbon in the upper trap are higher than those in the lower one. The study indicates that the seasonal and annual variations of the sediment fluxes and planktonic foraminiferal species are mainly controlled by the changes of surface primary productivity and hydrological conditions related to the East Asian monsoon. The lower carbonate and organic carbon fluxes in the lower trap are related to the dissolution.     

“数字海底”系统建模中的关键技术研究

基于“数字海底”系统的理论基础研究和在海底科学应用中的具体实践,提出了“数字海底”的涵义、系统组成和体系结构,对空间数据管理技术、基于XML的WebGIS空间数据表达技术、复杂海底三维建模技术、多源信息的一体化集成显示技术、虚拟现实技术等“数字海底”系统建模中的关键技术进行了探讨,为从事海底资源研究和开发的人员提供各个层次的参考或帮助.     

九龙江河口区表层水铀同位素的粒级分布

利用微滤和超滤技术研究了九龙江河口区表层水中铀及其同位素组成的粒级分布和地球化学行为.结果表明,溶解态(<0.4μm)中低分子量组分(<10 000 u)占主要份额,胶体态(10 000 u~0.4μm)238U所占比例不足1%,且随盐度的增加其所占份额逐渐降低.溶解态、低分子量组分和胶体态238U的比活度与盐度之间存在良好的线性正相关关系,证实它们在九龙江河口区呈现保守行为.在颗粒态(>0.4μm)中,各粒级组分238U所占份额主要受控于相应颗粒物的浓度,在盐度小于20的区域,各粒级颗粒组分238U占颗粒态的份额有如下变化次序:10~53μm>2~10μm>0.4~2μm>大于53μm,而在盐度大于30的近外海站位,该次序发生一些变化:0.4~2μm>10~53μm>2~10μm>大于53μm,最小粒级颗粒组分238U的贡献有所增加,反映了自生铀贡献的加强.九龙江河口区表层水中溶解态(包括低分子量组分和胶体态)的234U/238U)_A.R.均大于1,显示出234U过剩的特征,而各粒级颗粒组分中的234U/238U)_A.R.则接近于平衡值(1.0).这一现象与陆地岩石风化过程中水体对铀的淋滤释出量及234U的优先浸出有关.对232Th/238U质量比的研究显示,溶解态及其所包括的低分子量组分和胶体态的232Th/238U质量比均小于1,而颗粒态及其所包括的4个粒级组分中的232Th/238U质量比均大于1,反映了向外海输送过程中铀、钍地球化学行为的差异.     

Probabilistic Models for the Probability of Wave Breaking and Whitecap Coverage Based on Kinematic Breaking Criterion

More and more researches show that neither the critical downward acceleration nor the critical slope of water waves is a universal constant. On the contrary, they vary with particular wave conditions. This fact moders the models either for the probability of wave breaking B or for the whitecap coverage W based on these criteria difficult to apply. In this paper and the one which follows we seek to develop models for the prediction of both B and W based on the kinematical criterion. First, several joint probabihstic distribution functions (PDFs) of wave characteristics are derived, based on which the breaking properties B and W are estimated. The estimation is made on the assumption that a wave breaks ff the horizontal velocity of water particles at its crest exceeds the local wave celerity, and whitecapping occurs in regions of fluid where water particles travel faster than the waves. The consequent B and W depend on wave spectral moments of orders 0 to 4.Then the JONSWAP spectrum is used to represent the fetch-limited sea waves in deep water, so as to relate the probahility of wave breaking and the whitecap coverage with wind parameters. To this end, the time-averaging technique proposed by Glazman (1986) is applied to the estimation of the spectral moments involved, and furthermore, the theoretical models are compared with available observations collected from published literature. From the comparison, the averaging time scale is determined. The final models show that the probability of wave breaking as well as the whitecap coverage depends on the dimensionless fetch. The agreement between these models and the database is reasonable.     

水下智能潜器的神经网络运动控制

本文介绍一种基于神经网络的水下智能潜器的运动控制方法，该方法通过在线学习，融控制与滤波为一体。计算机仿真与水池实验验证表明，该方法的控制与滤波性能良好，对环境的学习与适应能力强。该方法事实上可用于一般动力系统的控制。     

Variations in the Fishing and Sea Conditions of Northwestern East China Sea in Autumn 1983

Some unusual features have been analysed in this paper on the sea conditions ofnorthwestern East China Sea and the fisheries of Mackerel, Round Scad, Sardines off Zhejiangin the autumn of 1983, based on the data of the past years. The findings are as follows: 1. The low-salinity water area formed by the Changjiang River runoff emptying intothe sea expanded by three times as campared with that of 1978 (a poor runoff year). The     

口服免疫药物后中国对虾某些血淋巴因子的测定及方法研究

于１９９１年４－９月，以海捕中国对虾亲虾及养殖中国对虾为材料，运用单向免疫扩散（ＳＲＩＤ）方法测定对虾血淋巴免疫因子，并采用经改进后的Ｈｏｒｏｗｉｔｚ等人的方法测定对虾体内的酚氧化酶（ＰＯ）活性，目的在于运用该两种方法对口服不同免疫药物的养殖对虾的血淋巴免疫因子及ＰＯ活力进行测定。对亲虾和养殖对虾口服不同免疫药物前后的测定结果表明，几种情况下的对虾血淋巴中均存在类似ＩｇＭ的因子，血细胞中存在酚氧化     

Sea surface temperature variations in the southwestern South China Sea over the past 160 ka

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the southwestern South China Sea have been reconstructed for the past 160 ka using the Uk37 paleothermometer from the core MD01-2392. The temperature differences between glacial times (MISs 6 and 2) and interglacial times (MISs 5.5 and 1) are 2.2~2.5 ℃. Younger Dryas event during the last deglaciation was documented in both the planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and SST records. After MIS 5.5, SSTs displayed a progressive cooling from 28.6 to 24.5 ℃, culminating at the LGM. During this gradual cooling period, warm events such as MISs 5.3, 5.1 and 3 were also clearly documented. By comparison of SST between the study core and Core 17954, a pattern of low or no meridional SST gradients during the interglacial periods and high meridional SST gradients during the glacial periods was exhibited. This pattern indicates the much stronger East Asian winter monsoon at the glacial than at the interglacial periods. Spectral analysis gives two prominent cycles: 41 and 23 ka, with the former more pronounced, suggesting that SSTs in the southern SCS varied in concert with high-latitude processes through the connection of East Asian winter monsoon.