Modeling Methane Emissions from Paddy Rice Fields under Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Conditions

Methane(CH4 ) emissions from paddy rice fields substantially contribute to the dramatic increase of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.Due to great concern about climate change,it is necessary to predict the effects of the dramatic increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2 ) on CH4 emissions from paddy rice fields.CH4MOD 1.0 is the most widely validated model for simulating CH4 emissions from paddy rice fields exposed to ambient CO2(hereinafter referred to as aCO2 ).We upgraded the model to CH4MOD 2.0 b...     

河南省强对流天气诊断分析预报系统

强对流预报是天气预报的难点,为了提高预报强对流、特别是预报区域性强对流天气的预报能力,应用河南省1995—2004年的气象观测资料作分析样本,并计算多个大气动力和热力学参数。经过统计分析、诊断分析,选择预报能力强、指示性好的大气动力或热力学参数作为强对流天气的预报因子,采用加权集成建立预报方程。应用计算机技术自动实现从数据采集、物理参数计算、预报因子临界值判别、诊断预报方程运算,到以MICAPS图形方式输出预报结果,建立了河南省区域强对流天气预报系统。该系统为预报员提供了一种科学客观的参考依据,在近两年的业务运行中取得了比较理想的预报效果,提升了河南省强对流天气的预报能力。     

近10a地县级农经网工作结构与发展思考

根据近10 a来贵州农经网的运行情况,结合毕节地区农经网业务工作实际,对今后如何开展服务于"三农"作进一步的调整、思考和设想。     

华东登陆台风的对流非对称结构分析

利用FY-2气象卫星的TBB资料对登陆华东地区的台风进行了对流非对称结构的分析。不同象限的对流分析显示,在台风登陆的-24—6 h过程中,其南侧的对流始终强于北侧,西侧的对流在登陆至8 h之前强于东侧,之后两者的对流相对强弱发生变化。台风对流的非对称分布,一部分是由于环境垂直风切变和台风移动造成的,还有一部分是由于台风登陆过程相关象限对流受限引起的。此外,华东沿海的地形抬升作用也有利于台风东侧对流的产生和加强。对比华南登陆台风的非对称对流分布特点,发现导致两者明显不同的原因主要在于台风登陆过程的路径与海岸线的相对夹角,以及台风东侧的不同地形。     

Compositions and source apportionments of atmospheric aerosol during Asian dust storm and local pollution in central Taiwan

A study has been carried out on water soluble ions, trace elements, as well as PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10 elemental and organic carbon samples collected daily from Central Taiwan over a one year period in 2005. A source apportionment study was performed, employing a Gaussian trajectory transfer coefficient model (GTx) to the results from 141 sets of PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10 samples. Two different types of PM₁₀ episodes, local pollution (LOP) and Asian dust storm (ADS) were observed in this study. The results revealed that relative high concentrations of secondary aerosols (NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻ and NH₄⁺) and the elements Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As were observed in PM_2.5 during LOP periods. However, sea salt species (Na⁺ and Cl⁻) and crustal elements (e.g., Al, Fe, Mg, K, Ca and Ti) of PM_2.5–10 showed a sharp increase during ADS periods. Anthropogenic source metals, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As, as well as coarse nitrate also increased with ADS episodes. Moreover, reconstruction of aerosol compositions revealed that soil of PM_2.5–10 elevated approximately 12–14% in ADS periods than LOP and Clear periods. A significantly high ratio of non-sea salt sulfate to elemental carbon (NSS-SO₄²⁻/EC) of PM_2.5–10 during ADS periods was associated with higher concentrations of non-sea-salt sulfates from the industrial regions of China. Source apportionment analysis showed that 39% of PM₁₀, 25% of PM_2.5, 50% of PM_2.5–10, 42% of sulfate and 30% of nitrate were attributable to the long range transport during ADS periods, respectively.     

Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report （AR4） are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model （FGOALS） developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP/CAS）, including the ＂Climate of the 20th century experiment＂, ＂CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment＂ and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios AIB and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show： （1） from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temper- ature increases about 0.5℃ and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model＇s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; （2） the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6℃ in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5℃ and 2.4℃ in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.     

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection (EUP) pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent (MC) region; positive (negative) precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific (MC). A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong (weak) SCSSM strengthens (weakens) cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool (warm) the SST around the MC through enhanced (reduced) surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling (warming) further leads to suppressed (enhanced) convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of El Ni?o (La Ni?a) through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.     

Diurnal variation of simulated 2007 summertime precipitation over South Korea in a real-time forecast model system

A real-time forecast (RTF) system using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model version 2.2 is used to evaluate the diurnal variation of precipitation over South Korea in the summer (June to August) of 2007. The characteristics of the observed precipitation are also analyzed. The analysis and simulation period is divided into two sub-periods following the end of the changma, or East Asian monsoon, in 2007: Period_1 is from 1 June to 21 July, and Period_2 is from 22 July to 31 August. A 24-h precipitation cycle is observed over the entire period. The diurnal variation of precipitation over the South Korea shows that the nighttime maximum precipitation in Period_1 is affected by a largescale system; in contrast, the daytime maximum precipitation in Period_2 resulted from mesoscale convections is induced by thermal instability and moisture advection. The phases of the diurnal variation of simulated precipitation are consistent with those of the observed precipitation. The daytime rainfall amount of simulated precipitation in Period_2 is overestimated, and the convective rain process significantly affects the simulated total precipitation. The daytime overestimated precipitation is associated with overestimations of low-level temperature and moisture during the daytime in the model simulations as compared with the observations.     

冬小麦晚霜冻害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析

冬小麦晚霜冻害主要发生在中国的黄淮区域,河南占黄淮区域面积较大,是中国小麦的主要产地,又是晚霜冻害的重发区,因此文章以河南为例,从构成晚霜冻害的最低温度和小麦发育期两个因素出发,提出了晚霜冻害指数构建方法,使晚霜冻害指标定量化,并从多年数据库中计算出逐年晚霜冻害发生强度和发生天数.由于小麦发育期观测资料序列较短,影响了大尺度小麦晚霜冻害变化规律的分析,因而提出了冬小麦发育期资料推算方法;对计算出的近50年晚霜冻害资料进行EOF分析和Morlet小波分析,以发现晚霜冻害的时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律.结果表明:冬小麦晚霜冻害发生频率较高,高发区频率超过40%,且在20世纪70-90年代有增多的趋势;发生强度和天数变化趋势基本相似,具有发生强度较重区对应着发生天数较多区的趋势,且前者对小麦产量的影响大于后者;晚霜冻害发生强度的重发区分布在豫东南和豫西南,轻发区主要分布在淮河以南及豫西部分地区,其中第1模态分布型存在16年、第2模态分布型存在准2年的多时间尺度变化规律;发生天数的多发区主要分布在豫北北部和豫西南边界,少发区在豫东北及豫西南中部,其中第1模态分布型存在着准4年、第2模态分布型存在准3年和准6-7年的周期.     

A Reconstructed Wind Stress Dataset for Climate Research over the Tropical Pacific during a 153-Year Period

There are close relationships between the sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface wind over the tropical Pacific.To study the past climate variability over the tropical Pacific,the long-term monthly wind stress anomalies over the tropical Pacific for the period of 1856–2008 are reconstructed with an SVD (singular value decomposition)-based statistical atmospheric model,where the wind stress anomalies are slave and directly correspond to the SST anomalies.The verification results show that the reconstructed wind stress data have high correlations and a small root mean square (RMS) error with the three reanalysis/simulated surface wind datasets from the last 50 years.In addition,the simulated SST anomalies from an intermediate oceanic model (IOM),which is forced by the reconstructed wind stress,can simulate the realistic interannual and decadal variability of the ENSO (El Nio-Southern Oscillation);this indicates that this new long-term wind stress dataset is useful for various climate studies,especially for the large-scale interannual and decadal variability.