我国中部地区夏季干旱的多时间尺度特征及其环流、海温异常

基于CRU逐月降水和NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,利用集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)方法,分析1948—2016年中国中部地区夏季降水变化的多时间尺度特征及其对应的环流、海温异常,进而解释不同时期影响干旱发生的背景场有何不同。结果表明,中部地区夏季降水以年际变化为主,周期长度为3.8 a和6.9 a,年代际和多年代际变化的方差贡献不足20%。然而,各时间尺度降水变化对不同时期干旱事件的贡献存在较大差异,1960s、1970s,降水年际变化偏弱,相反地,多年代际变化正处于负位相的极小值期;1980s、1990s,多年代际变化位相转正;2000s初,年际变化明显增强。此外,通过分析不同时间尺度降水变化对应的环流、海温背景场,发现热带印度洋海温异常及其引起的西北太平洋副热带高压的变化、大西洋北部海温异常激发的纬向波列以及贝加尔湖地区的阻塞活动、1970s末PDO位相转变伴随的东亚夏季风突变是分别解释降水年际、年代际和多年代际变化的主要原因,进而揭示影响中部地区夏季干旱发生的关键因子及其相对重要性。     

基于气温和体感温度的中国南方地区供暖必要性分析

利用1961—2017年中国各省市701个完整时间序列逐日气象资料的台站数据,以《民用建筑供暖通风与空气调节设计规范》(GB50736—2012)中的供暖标准为指标,采用滑动5 d平均方法,从气温和体感温度两种角度,分析了中国南方地区省市供暖的必要性.结果表明:从气温计算的采暖期看,江苏省、安徽省北部、四川省西部、贵州...     

Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Central China over the Past 4700 Years and Its Possible Link to Solar Activity

Based on 467 pairs of δ~(18) O and δ~(13) C records and 8 230 Th dates from a stalagmite(BF4) from Xiniu Cave, central China, we present a reconstruction of ~9-yr resolution monsoon rainfall record for the past 4700 years. Our δ~(18) O record shows good coherence with East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) rainfall proxies from adjacent regions during the overlapping intervals, suggesting that δ~(18) O signal in BF4 can be interpreted as a monsoon rainfall proxy. The δ~(13) C variations are related to changes in local processes at the cave site, and regional rainfall and temperature changes.Based on the δ~(18) O record, a series of dry periods can be identified at 4500–4200, 3500–3200, 2800–2500,1900–1600, 1400–1200, 700–500, and 400–200 yr BP, while a series of wet periods can be identified at 4200–3600,2400–2200, 3200–2800, 1100–900, 600–400, and 200–100 yr BP. Power spectrum analysis on our δ~(18) O record reveals significant cycles at ~470 and ~80 yr, coinciding with the typical solar periodic variations. This result suggests that changes in solar activity play a dominant role in driving centennial–decadal monsoon rainfall variation in central China. Due to minor changes in solar irradiance(less than 1.5 W m~(-2)) over the past 4700 years, our record was further compared to the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) proxies,confirming that solar forcing on monsoon rainfall changes might be amplified by the ENSO and PDO variations.From 600 to 150 yr BP(the Little Ice Age, LIA), a positive shift of ~2‰ can be revealed in both the δ~(18) O and δ~(13) C records, indicating a cold/dry climatic pattern. By comparing our δ~(18) O and δ~(13) C records with historical documents,we suggest that the climatic deteriorations between 450 and 250 yr BP may have caused serious social unrest at the end of the Ming Dynasty.     

发展广东省空间天气轨道的思考

根据中国气象发展战略研究成果中8条业务轨道对空间天气轨道的要求,通过对空间天气和空间天气学的描述,分析广东省气象部门空间天气发展的可行性与必要性,结合广东省气象局业务体制改革,对发展广东省空间天气业务提出一些建议。     

近20年华北地区土壤水储量变化趋势及水分管理与调配对策

从35个台站土壤湿度实测资料出发,探讨了近20年华北地区土壤水储量变化趋势及时空特征。结果表明:全区年平均0~50 cm土壤水储量总体呈减少趋势,但区域差异明显。土壤变干最显著的两个中心区域分别为京津塘地区和山西西部,次显著中心为内蒙古东部。在0~50 cm深度范围内,从地表面开始,随深度增加,土壤水储量的减少幅度逐渐增加,且季节特征明显,即春秋季减少幅度大于夏冬季。各分区土壤水储量的变化趋势呈现出显著的年代际特征,就0~50 cm土壤水储量而言,各分区存在一个共同特点:1995~2002年均呈明显的波动下降变化趋势。土壤变干的趋势,对华北地区农业和生态具有一定的不利影响,因此结合区域实际提出相应的水分管理与调配措施。     

气候变化对徐闻盐场海盐生产的影响

根据徐闻盐场气象站近41年观测资料,对盐场的气候特征、主要气象要素的变化趋势及其对海盐产量的影响进行了分析。结果得出年平均气温呈显著上升趋势(0.14×℃/10年),年蒸发量和年平均风速呈显著下降趋势,倾向率分别为-129.1 mm/10年与-0.46(m.s-1/10年)。年降水量以波动变化为主,年日照时间无显著趋势性变化。蒸发量变化是影响原盐产量的最主要因素。海盐生产旺季(4~8月)的盐产量与蒸发量、日照时间存在显著正相关,与降水量呈现负相关。若未来气候继续变暖,热带气旋影响不增多,对海盐生产可能有利。     

基于Web的713C天气雷达图即时共享系统

在713C天气雷达实时扫描资料定时存盘的基础上,713C天气雷达图即时共享系统利用.NET框架下新的图形接口技术GD I ,实现图形文件的格式转换和传输;在ASP.NET环境下,利用VB.NET开发语言,实现基于W eb服务器的雷达图像共享。     

车尔臣河下游生态恢复的成因初步分析

利用且末1958--2005年的降水、气温、径流量、卫星遥感等资料,分析了车尔臣河下游生态环境变化的成因。指出全球气候变暖使得山区冰川融解加快,车尔臣河径流量增加有利于车尔臣河下游生态恢复;人类活动的增加如修防渗渠、人工造林、人工增雨、围湖育苇、人工输水等活动改变了小气候,改善了绿洲生态环境,是车尔臣河下游生态环境恢复的主要原因。     

夏季澜沧江跨境径流量变化与夏季风的关系

以澜沧江跨境径流量观测数据、NCEP/NCAR的U场、V场和NOAA的OLR场资料为基础,应用统计分析方法,研究了纵向岭谷作用下的夏季澜沧江跨境径流量变化与夏季风的关系。结果表明:澜沧江夏季跨境径流量变化在20世纪60年代中期至80年代末期为显著减少时段,而从90年代初期以来则表现出了一种显著增多的演变趋势;夏季澜沧江跨境径流量变化与较低层东西风分量变化的相关性不显著,与较高层东西风分量变化的相关性显著;夏季澜沧江跨境径流量变化与中低层和较高层南北风分量变化的相关性都是显著的,与OLR场变化的负相关性也是显著的;根据这些相关性特征建立的影响澜沧江夏季跨境径流量变化的夏季风环流指数能够较好地反映出澜沧江夏季跨境径流量变化的基本特征和规律。     

Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.