近10a大方县暴雨时空分布特征及致灾性的研究

【目的】研究大方县暴雨及其灾害特征,提高当地暴雨预报服务能力,为地方政府防洪部署及地质灾害防治提供参考。【方法】利用大方县国家气象观测站和乡镇自动气象站2013—2022年逐日降水资料、灾情资料,结合大方县地形、河流分布特点,统计分析近10 a大方县暴雨时空分布特征及各乡镇暴雨、大暴雨的致灾特点。【结果】大方县年均暴雨日、大暴雨日分别为14.8 d、3 d,且有增加趋势,暴雨、大暴雨主要出现在5—9月,均呈单峰型分布,暴雨的峰值出现在6月,大暴雨的峰值出现在7月,最早暴雨初日为4月18日,最晚暴雨终日为10月5日。【结论】大方县暴雨及大暴雨主要出现在南部、西部及北部乡镇,中部出现暴雨的次数较少,其分布特征与地形和水域有着较好的对应关系,位于迎风坡或水域附近的乡镇出现暴雨的频次高于其他乡镇。从暴雨灾情分布来看,致灾性暴雨出现在6、7月居多,与暴雨日、大暴雨日的月分布趋势相同,乡镇暴雨致灾频率大多在10%~30%之间,分布特征不明显;大暴雨致灾频率较高,在南部、北部海拔落差大或位于河谷地带的乡镇致灾性在50%以上。     

武当地块基性岩墙群及耀岭河群基性火山岩的Sr、Nd、Pb、O同位素研究

武当地块基性岩墙群与耀岭河群基性火山岩的 Ｓｒ、 Ｎｄ、 Ｐｂ 同位素特征反映它们具相同的混合地幔源区。前者的（８７ Ｓｒ／８６ Ｓｒ）ｉ＝ ０６９０５～０７０６１, ε Ｎ ｄ （ｔ） ＝ － １９～５０, Δ２０８ Ｐｂ／２０４ Ｐｂ＝ ３５４９～１９０２６, Δ２０７ Ｐｂ／２０４ Ｐｂ＝ ４～８５, Ｔｈ／ Ｔａ 低, Ｌａ／ Ｙｂ 变化大;后者的（８７ Ｓｒ／８６ Ｓｒ）ｉ＝ ０６４８７～０７０７５,ε Ｎ ｄ（ｔ）＝ ０１１～３９４, Δ２０８ Ｐｂ／２０４ Ｐｂ＝ － ８１５８～２１９９５, Δ２０７ Ｐｂ／２０４ Ｐｂ＝ ４４４～１６６８, Ｔｈ／ Ｔａ 和 Ｌａ／ Ｙｂ 较高。这指示它们的源区以岩石圈亏损地幔和第２ 类富集地幔为主要混合组分, 耀岭河群基性火山岩曾遭受地壳物质的混染。结合它们具大陆拉斑玄武岩地球化学特征, 代表同源异相裂谷环境的产物推断, 南秦岭基底陆块在新元古代时曾发生过一次重要裂解作用, 并向早古生代秦岭洋盆转变。     

短周期气压波对青岛台体应变的影响分析

利用相关分析、回归分析和交叉小波变换等方法,研究青岛台短周期（小于128 min）气压波和体应变的相关系数、气压系数和时频谱。结果表明,影响青岛台体应变的短周期气压波的优势周期为16~128 min。周期小于16 min（高频段）时,相关系数较小,随周期增大而增大;周期大于16 min（低频段）时,相关系数较大,趋于稳定。在相关系数较大且稳定的周期,气压系数为（3.5~3.6）×10-9/hPa,其中周期为16~64 min的气压系数随时间波动最小。交叉小波变换能更细致地揭示不同周期气压波和体应变在时频域的相关关系。     

The Conceptual Model and Its Empirical Studies of Sustainable Carrying Capacity of Water Resources:A Case Study of China Mainland

Based on the interactive development of new industrialization, rapid urbanization and agricultural modernization (IUAM), and from the viewpoint of interactive responses and supply-demand relationships between regional water resources carrying capacity and economic-social development, this paper puts forward the concepts and characterization methods of water resources relative intensity (WRI), water resources carrying rate (WCR) and sustainable index of water resources system (WSI). Considering the catastrophic trait of water resources carrying capacity and its contradictory relationship with WRI, a modified Catastrophe Model, which combines Catastrophe Theory and Fuzzy Mathematic Theory, was introduced to perform a multi-objective and multi-criterion comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of water resources carrying capacity (WSCC) based on benchmarking. According to these concepts and models, land WSCC for the China mainland was set as an example for empirical analysis. The results showed that at the scale of first-grade water regions, Liaohe River, Yangtze River and Pearl River regions had high WRI of domestic water, while Northwestern Rivers, Southeastern Rivers regions and Yangtze River region in some years had high WRI of eco-environment water. However, they were all in a downtrend, while the other four northern regions had low WRI in an uptrend. The agricultural WRI in Songhua River, Yellow River and Northwestern Rivers regions were relatively high and industrial WRI in Songhua River, Yangtze River and Pearl River regions were also relatively high. At the provincial scale, WSCC of urban domestic water was relatively stable, WSCC of eco-environment was obviously fluctuating, and WSCC of agriculture and industry were constantly rising. Overall, WRI in the China mainland generally decreased. The convergence of provinces with high consumption intensity of water resources and spatial spillover of WUE in high WCR provinces promotes water resources development and utilization, progressing toward doubly sustainable development. In the future, China should try to find new ideas and methods of dynamic management of regional water resources and unified management of basin water resources, building on the foundation of traditional water resources planning. Meanwhile, water resources should be considered in regional PRED (population, resources, ecology and development) systems for integrated dispatching and optimizing configuration so that the improvements of WSCC and harmonious development of water resources and regional populations, eco-environment, economy and society can be achieved.     

大城市郊区乡村转型与重构的典型模式分析——以天津东丽区华明镇为例

城市和乡村是连续统一体,乡村地域系统在城市化和工业化的带动下不断发生着转型与重构。探索乡村转型发展路径,总结成功经验模式,对促进乡村可持续发展乃至实现乡村振兴具有重要意义。城市郊区地处城乡交错带,相比农村腹地,乡村转型具有独特优势。本研究以华明镇为例,详细阐述了以城镇化整理路径实现乡村转型发展的典型模式。研究发现,华明镇乡村转型以“三整合”为标志,通过实施宅基地换房,建设现代农业产业园和工业园区,改革集体经济,创新金融服务,整合社区服务组织,实现了生产要素的优化配置,促进了村庄“人-地-业”协调发展。但是,以城镇化整理为主导的乡村转型模式,会造成传统乡村聚落的消失,需要强大的财政支持与政策体系支撑,仅适应于非农化水平较高的乡村地区,应审慎对待,不能盲目推进。     

当前气候、古气候和生境异质性对中国常绿阔叶木本植物生物地理格局的影响（英文）

Understanding biogeographic patterns and the mechanisms underlying them has been a main issue in macroecology and biogeography, and has implications for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem sustainability. Evergreen broad-leaved woody plants(EBWPs) are important components of numerous biomes and are the main contributors to the flora south of 35°N in China. We calculated the grid cell values of species richness(SR) for a total of 6265 EBWP species in China, including its four growth-forms(i.e., tree, shrub, vine, and bamboo), and estimated their phylogenetic structure using the standardized phylogenetic diversity(SPD) and net relatedness index(NRI). Then we linked the three biogeographical patterns that were observed with each single environmental variable representing the current climate, the last glacial maximum(LGM)–present climate variability, and habitat heterogeneity, using ordinary least squares regression with a modified t-test to account for spatial autocorrelation. The partial regression method based on a general linear model was used to decompose the contributions of current and historical environmental factors to the biogeographical patterns observed. The results showed that most regions with high numbers of EBWP species and phylogenetic diversity were distributed in tropical and subtropical mountains with evergreen shrubs extending to Northeast China. Current mean annual precipitation was the best single predictor. Topographic variation and its effect on temperature variation was the best single predictor for SPD and NRI. Partial regression indicated that the current climate dominated the SR patterns of Chinese EBWPs. The effect of paleo-climate variation on SR patterns mostly overlapped with that of the current climate. In contrast, the phylogenetic structure represented by SPD and NRI was constrained by paleo-climate to much larger extents than diversity, which was reflected by the LGM–present climate variation and topog-raphy-derived habitat heterogeneity in China. Our study highlights the importance of embedding multiple dimensions of biodiversity into a temporally hierarchical framework for understanding the biogeographical patterns, and provides important baseline information for predicting shifts in plant diversity under climate change.     

非线性垂直切变基流中横波型扰动的不稳定

通过数值计算扰动的波谱和谱函数,对垂直非线性切变基流中横波型扰动的不稳定作了数值研究,给出了不稳定谱函数的结构,讨论了不稳定的性质。主要结论有:在基流为非线性垂直切变时,对三支波动连续谱区互不重叠的天气尺度情况,此时出现的不稳定扰动其性质是准地转涡旋波的不稳定,即Rossby波的斜压不稳定。在中α尺度中高端,虽有涡旋波和重力惯性波连续谱区的部分重叠,但这时不稳定的性质仍是涡旋波的不稳定,即准平衡的斜压不稳定。在中α尺度低端,既有准平衡涡旋波的不稳定,又有非平衡的涡旋-重力惯性混合波的不稳定(第一类混合波不稳定)。中β尺度不稳定的性质则是非平衡的涡旋-重力惯性混合波的不稳定,包括第一类混合波不稳定和第二类混合波不稳定。上述情况与线性垂直切变基流的结论相一致,但这里因基流垂直分布较复杂,垂直方向会出现散涡比以1为界的多段交替分布。综上,对于横波型扰动,只要基流不是常数,且层结稳定,虽此时存在纯重力惯性波连续谱区,但均无纯重力惯性波的不稳定,只有涡旋-重力惯性混合波的不稳定。     

基于太赫兹时域光谱技术的白色软玉产地鉴定研究

不同产地的白色软玉组成矿物成分和结构构造十分相近,但价值差异很大。太赫兹(terahertz,THz)时域光谱技术可以提供物质的化学组成、结构及构像等信息,光谱指纹特征信息可用于物质鉴别。利用透射式太赫兹时域光谱技术分别对新疆、韩国、青海和俄罗斯这4个产地的白色软玉进行了测试,将得到的时域光谱进行快速傅里叶变换(fast Fourier transform,FFT)和计算后使用Savitzky-Golay(S-G)平滑处理进行降噪,得到4个产地白色软玉的0. 2～2. 5 THz频域内折射率和吸收系数。研究表明,4个产地白色软玉THz光谱折射率存在数值差异;不同产地太赫兹特征吸收峰的存在形式不同,新疆、青海的白色软玉在2. 0 THz波段有1个突出的小型特征吸收峰,而韩国和俄罗斯的白色软玉在1. 5～2. 0 THz波段有1个宽大的吸收包络。这些结果为进一步开发基于太赫兹时域光谱技术的白色软玉产地识别方法提供了基础数据。     

内蒙古乌兰拜其铅锌矿床成因探讨:流体包裹体及矿石矿物S-Pb同位素、微量元素证据

乌兰拜其铅锌矿床是近年来在大兴安岭中南段地区新发现的一处中型铅锌多金属矿床,目前已探明铅锌储量约27万吨,其中Ⅰ号矿段为主要的组成矿段。本文以乌兰拜其矿床Ⅰ号矿段作为研究对象,试图讨论乌兰拜其铅锌矿床成矿流体性质、成矿物质来源、成矿地质背景及成因类型。乌兰拜其矿床Ⅰ号矿段矿体主要呈似层状赋存于白音高老组地层中酸性火山碎屑岩中。根据矿物的组构和穿插关系,初步将I号矿段成矿作用划分为:毒砂-黄铁矿阶段、多金属硫化物阶段和绢云母-绿泥石阶段等三个主要成矿阶段。其中矿床中主成矿阶段的石英、闪锌矿中的流体包裹体可分为气液两相包裹体(Ⅰ型)和含子晶多相包裹体(Ⅱ型)两类。石英中气液两相包裹体的均一温度范围为125～481℃,盐度为2.74%～7.02%Na Cleqv;闪锌矿中的流体包裹体均一温度范围为110～327℃,盐度为2.90%～7.02%Na Cleqv。分析计算得出的包裹体形成时的成矿压力为8.27～37.43MPa,平均压力为21.26MPa;成矿深度为0.28～1.25km,平均深度为0.71km。这表明乌兰拜其铅锌矿床的成矿流体具有中低温、低密度、低盐度的特征,其形成于压力较低,深度较浅的环境下。矿床主成矿阶段的多金属硫化物具有较小的δ34S值变化范围(-6.73‰～0.17‰,均值为-4.10‰),指示硫来源于深源岩浆。闪锌矿、黄铜矿Pb同位素(206Pb/204Pb为18.130～18.267,207Pb/204Pb为15.488～15.545,208Pb/204Pb为37.920～38.104)组成较为稳定。其μ值为9.27～9.28,ω值为33.46～34.02,暗示乌兰拜其矿床铅具有壳幔混合来源特征。乌兰拜其硫铅同位素组成与大兴安岭地区成矿物质为岩浆来源的金属矿床特征相似,与早白垩世火山岩浆活动关系密切,是深部岩浆热液逐步演化的产物。结合矿区与成矿关系密切的燕山晚期花岗岩,本次研究初步认为乌兰拜其铅锌多金属矿床是受燕山晚期中酸性火山岩-次火山岩和断裂控制的,与岩浆活动有关的中低温热液铅锌多金属矿床。     

青岛近海秋季大型底栖动物群落特征

利用2007年10月在青岛近海进行的大型底栖动物定量采集样品,采用大型多元统计分析软件PRIMER,研究了该海域大型底栖动物群落的物种组成、生物量和丰度分布、群落等级聚类分析(CLUSTER)以及群落受污染扰动情况。本次调查共获得青岛近海大型底栖动物160种,其中多毛类93种,甲壳动物37种,软体动物16种,棘皮动物7种,其它类群动物7种。群落中优势种的优势度均不明显,以多毛类巴氏钩毛虫(Sigambra bassi)和长须沙蚕(Nereis longior)贡献率最高。生物量和丰度空间分布没有明显的规律性,呈斑块状分布。群落结构聚类分析表明,15个取样站的群落结构相似性程度都非常低,为10%~30%,仅有S2和S4站、S11和S12站Bray-Curtis相似性系数达到30%。ABC曲线表明,该研究海域处于1个轻度人为扰动的状态。