青藏铁路唐古拉山-拉萨段全新世控震断裂研究

地表调查表明,沿青藏铁路唐古拉山-拉萨段存在5条重要的全新世控震断裂带,从北到南分别是温泉盆地西缘断裂带、安多盆地北缘断裂带、崩错断裂带、谷露西缘断裂带和当雄-羊八井断裂带.构造-地貌和年代学分析结果表明,北部的温泉盆地西缘断裂和安多盆地北缘断裂带的活动强度相对比较小,平均垂直活动速率约为0.2～0.5mm/a.南侧的谷露西缘断裂带和当雄-羊八井断裂带的全新世垂直活动速率为约(15±0.5)mm/a.而中部的崩错走滑断裂带的活动强度最大,晚第四纪期间的走滑速率可达(11±4.5)mm/a.全新世断裂活动和古地震研究表明,其中温泉盆地西缘断裂带、安多盆地北缘断裂带、崩错断裂带的西北分支、当雄-羊八井断裂带的当雄段等区域未来发生强震的概率相对更大.     

2013-2016年乳山震群b值深度变化特征及意义

利用双差定位方法,对2013年10月—2016年12月乳山震群进行重定位,并计算乳山震群中地震集中活动区域b值,分析其深度分布变化。结果显示：地震重定位后表现为近NW向集中分布;b值在震源深度7.4 km上下最小,反映该深度处应力最强;乳山震群b值并不随震源深度增大而呈系统性减小变化,且深度10.2 km以下无有效b值,进一步证实该震群近NW向发震断裂的存在。根据b值随深度的变化特征,推测断裂活动的高应力区域集中在6.5—10.2 km深度范围内,断裂活动在深度7.4 km处应力最强,且水平分布最广;相比上下两侧地壳介质b值在5.5—6.2 km深度层位明显增大,反映该深度层位介质性质存在明显差异。     

Predictive deconvolution applied to long-range seismic refraction observations

Summary The method of predictive deconvolution is described and applied to seismograms from the 1963 Lake Superior experiment. The process is successful in removing shot-generated reverberations and sometimes reveals seismic phases which are not easily identifiable on the original seismograms.     

南海东北部表层沉积中生源和矿物碎屑组分分析及其古环境意义

通过对南海东北部128个表层沉积样品的定量研究，揭示隆源和矿物碎屑各组分的分布，也显示了组分分析作为一种简单、快速的研究方法在海洋古环境研究中的潜力，研究区生源碎屑的分布明显受与水深相关的深海溶解作用所控制，水深3500-4000m的现代南海CCD以下，钙质生物的含量急剧减少，而硅质生物的含量急剧增加，研究区表层沉积中的碎屑矿物主要来源于亚洲大陆，吕宋镐的风化产物只起次要作用，且其分布主要受与离岸距离远近和海流相关的搬运作用所控制。     

Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

Effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source pollution in the Xizhi River watershed,Guangdong, China

The Annualized Agricultural Non‐point Source (AnnAGNPS) pollution model has been widely used to assess and predict runoff, soil erosion, sediment and nutrient loading with a geographic information system. This article presents a case study of the effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution using the AnnAGNPS model in the Xizhi River watershed, eastern Pearl River Delta of Guangdong province, China. The land‐use changes in the Xizhi River watershed between 1998 and 2003 were examined using the multitemporal remote sensing data. The runoff, soil erosion, sediment transport and nutrient loading 1998 and 2003 were assessed using AnnAGNPS. The effects of land‐use changes on NPS were studied by comparing the simulation results of each year. Our results showed that (i) the NPS loadings increased when forest and grass land converted into paddy, orchard and farmland land, and population size and gross domestic product size as well as the usage amounts of fertilizer and pesticide in the entire watershed were firmly correlated with the NPS loadings; (ii) the land‐use change during fast urbanization in particular when other land types were converted into the development land and buildup land led to increasing of NPS pollution; and (iii) urban land expansion showed more important effects on total organic carbon (TOC) loading compared with nitrogen and phosphorus loadings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水利水电工程震害分析及抗震措施建议

通过对汶川地震、通海地震、唐山地震和澜沧-耿马地震中水利工程破坏情况的统计分析,本文以统计表的形式直观地反映了水利工程震害的特点及破坏形式.根据水利工程的震害特点,探讨分析了水利工程震害的主要影响因素,结果表明地震烈度、结构设计、施工质量、地基及场地条件是水利工程震害的主要影响因素.基于水利工程震害的特点及主要影响因素...     

环境同位素特征对滨海岩溶地区海水入侵过程的指示意义

大连大魏家水源地位于中国北方典型滨海岩溶地区。近30年来,地下淡水的不合理开采造成的地下水位降落漏斗引发了严重的海水入侵。以大魏家水源地为研究对象,通过大量的水文地质调查和水化学及同位素采样测试分析,探讨海水入侵形成的水动力条件,通过分析滨海岩溶含水层中地下水主要水化学和多种同位素(δ2H-δ18O,δ34S,δ13C)组成特征,识别了海水入侵过程中发生的主要水文地球化学作用,并对其进行了定量模拟,从而阐明了岩溶含水层中的海水入侵机理。研究结果表明:大连大魏家海水入侵主要通道为大魏家地区存在的导水断裂、岩溶裂隙以及第四系松散地层。对δ2H-δ18O同位素的组成分析表明,研究区地下水主要来自大气降水补给,结合Cl-浓度分布,认为除海水入侵淡水含水层后增加了地下水中的盐分外,浅层地下水的蒸发也对地下水中盐分的累积起到了重要作用。根据不同水体中δ34SSO4,δ13CHCO3等同位素特征,结合水化学成分(如SO2-4,Cl-)分析认为,研究区微咸水和咸水并不是地下水淡水和海水简单混合而成。利用反向水文地球化学模拟揭示了控制滨海岩溶含水层中水化学演化的主要水文地球化学反应有方解石、蒙脱石和石膏的溶解作用,伊利石的沉淀作用以及Ca-Na离子交换作用,伴随着CO2的释放。     

鄱阳湖成因与演变的历史论证

本文通过大量史料分析和地质钻孔证据,认为鄱阳湖大水面形成于公元400年前后,为距今约1600年的年青湖泊。鄱阳湖形成的直接和主导因素是长江主泓道南移到湖口一带,因江水阻碍赣江水的下泄,使湖泊水域向南扩张,到唐初面积最大时曾达6000km~2。之后,鄱阳湖水位和面积的变化主要取决于湖口处长江水位的变化。