Logistic判别模型在强降水预报中的应用

利用Logistiv判别模型进行强降水预报,并设计3种方案进行对比分析。方案1直接使用14个影响因子进行判别预报,受因子共线性作用及噪音信号影响,虽然拟合效果较好,但预报效果明显下降。方案2对14个影响因子进行主成分分析,利用前6个主成分建模,虽然拟合效果较方案1降低,但由于消除了因子共线性作用以及噪音信号影响,预报效果较方案1提高。方案3运用Bootstrap抽样技术得到符干样本并建模计算模型参数,打乱了原有时间序列中的波动,仪保留平稳信息,拟合自由度进一步降低,导致拟合效果较方案案2下降,但预报效果却是3种方案中最好且最稳定的。在上述研究基础上,利用欧洲中心数值预报模式的预报场资料,建立基于Logistic判别模型的强降水客观预报系统,并在中央气象台业务运行。2013和2014年连续两年汛期预报检验结果表明,概模型对强降水预报的TS评分高于数值模式本身,具有一定的业务参考价值。     

Magnetic Influences of Cement Dust on Soil in Industrial Area and Its Environmental Implications

To monitor environmental implications of cement dust on soil in industrial area, magnetic parameters and mineral compositions were measured by the samples of the cement dust, cement factory dustfall, cement, coal ash, topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory. Results showed that the major magnetic minerals in the samples were magnetite, the magnetic mineral particle size of cement dust, dustfall, cement and coal ash was coarse Multi-Domian (MD) and Pseudo-Single-Domain (PSD). As topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory were polluted by cement dust, their magnetic properties had been obviously changed; the concentration of magnetic minerals elevated and particle size became coarser. The magnetic parameters (χ_fd,χ_ARM/χ,χ_ARM/SIRM) value can reflect the pollution level of the soil, the lower its value was, the more serious soil was polluted. X-ray diffraction results showed that the mineral compositions of the topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory were quartz and calcite, which were the same as cement dust. Magnetic parameters combination characteristics of topsoil can monitor the soil environmental changes in cement industry area.     

黑河新生地区中侏罗世花岗质岩石锆石U-Pb年龄、地球化学特征及岩石成因

黑河新生地区西古兰河以北二长花岗岩的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素测试结果表明,其形成时代为中侏罗世((163.8±1)Ma)。这些中侏罗世二长花岗岩属于弱过铝质高钾钙碱性系列的Ⅰ型花岗岩,明显富集大离子亲石元素(Rb、Ba、Th)和亏损高场强元素(Zr、Hf、Nb、Ta),元素Sr具有明显的负异常,表明其原始岩浆起源于地壳火成岩的部分熔融。结合区域资料同时代火成岩的组合特征和古太平洋板块的构造演化,认为该二长花岗岩形成于活动大陆边缘,而其形成的地球动力学背景可能为古太平洋板块向欧亚板块俯冲造山后的伸展环境。     

Underwater Navigation Based on Real-Time Simultaneous Sound Speed Profile Correction

Precise sound speed profile (SSP) information is critical when using sonar for underwater terrain navigation. Nevertheless, acquiring SSP information in real-time is difficult, especially in underwater navigation environment. To account for this problem, this paper presents an underwater navigation method that applies real-time SSP correction to the terrain measurements. The method uses a probe to measure the surface sound speed simultaneously. Meanwhile, redundancy of topographic measurement data is exploited to derive the equivalent SSP information. The acquired equivalent SSP is updated continuously with particle filter algorithm. The terrain measurements can be corrected in real-time with the equivalent SSP to improve the performance of underwater terrain navigation. By removing the impact of inaccurate SSP from the terrain measurements, the proposed method can achieve precise and robust underwater navigation result without using an underway-profiling instrument. Simulated results confirm the good performance of the proposed method.     

Tectono–Thermal Evolution, Hydrocarbon Filling and Accumulation Phases of the Hari Sag, in the Yingen–Ejinaqi Basin, Inner Mongolia, Northern China

This work restored the erosion thickness of the top surface of each Cretaceous formations penetrated by the typical well in the Hari sag, and simulated the subsidence burial history of this well with software BasinMod. It is firstly pointed out that the tectonic subsidence evolution of the Hari sag since the Cretaceous can be divided into four phases: initial subsidence phase, rapid subsidence phase,uplift and erosion phase, and stable slow subsidence phase. A detailed reconstruction of the tectonothermal evolution and hydrocarbon generation histories of typical well was undertaken using the EASY R_0% model, which is constrained by vitrinite reflectance(R_0) and homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions. In the rapid subsidence phase, the peak period of hydrocarbon generation was reached at c.a.105.59 Ma with the increasing thermal evolution degree. A concomitant rapid increase in paleotemperatures occurred and reached a maximum geothermal gradient of about 43-45℃/km. The main hydrocarbon generation period ensued around 105.59-80.00 Ma and the greatest buried depth of the Hari sag was reached at c.a. 80.00 Ma, when the maximum paleo-temperature was over 180℃.Subsequently, the sag entered an uplift and erosion phase followed by a stable slow subsidence phase during which the temperature gradient, thermal evolution, and hydrocarbon generation decreased gradually. The hydrocarbon accumulation period was discussed based on homogenization temperatures of inclusions and it is believed that two periods of rapid hydrocarbon accumulation events occurred during the Cretaceous rapid subsidence phase. The first accumulation period observed in the Bayingebi Formation(K_1 b) occurred primarily around 105.59-103.50 Ma with temperatures of 125-150℃. The second accumulation period observed in the Suhongtu Formation(K_1 s) occurred primarily around84.00-80.00 Ma with temperatures of 120-130℃. The second is the major accumulation period, and the accumulation mainly occurred in the Late Cretaceous. The hydrocarbon accumulation process was comprehensively controlled by tectono-thermal evolution and hydrocarbon generation history. During the rapid subsidence phase, the paleo temperature and geothermal gradient increased rapidly and resulted in increasing thermal evolution extending into the peak period of hydrocarbon generation,which is the key reason for hydrocarbon filling and accumulation.     

塔里木陆块西北缘萨热克砂岩型铜矿床构造-流体演化对成矿的制约

塔里木陆块西北缘萨热克砂岩型铜矿床构造演化、流体演化与成矿之间具有密切关系,处于一个统一系统中。矿床成岩期方解石中包裹体水的δD值为-65.3‰~-99.2‰,改造成矿期石英包裹体水的δD值为-77.7‰~-96.3‰,成岩成矿期成矿流体δ~(18)OH_2O变化范围为-3.22‰~1.84‰,改造成矿期成矿流体δ~(18)OH_2O变化范围为-4.26‰~5.14‰,指示萨热克铜矿成岩期、改造期成矿流体主要为中生代大气降水及其经水岩作用而成的盆地卤水。矿石中辉铜矿δ~(34)S值为-24.7‰~-15.4‰,指示硫主要源自硫酸盐细菌与有机质还原,部分源于有机硫。构造与成矿流体演化对砂岩铜矿成矿起关键制约作用。盆地发展早期强烈的抬升运动使盆地周缘基底与古生界剥蚀,为富铜矿源层的形成提供了丰富物源,至晚侏罗世盆地发展晚期,长期演化积聚的巨量含矿流体在库孜贡苏组砾岩胶结物及裂隙中富集,在萨热克巴依盆地内形成具有经济意义的砂岩型铜矿床。     

Application of incomplete similarity theory to the estimation of the mean velocity of debris flows

The mean velocity of debris flow is one of the most important parameters in the design of mitigation structures and in quantitative risk analysis. This study develops a model to predict the mean debris flow velocity observed in the field by applying the incomplete similarity argument. An equation for estimating the Darcy-Weisbach resistance coefficient for debris flows with a volumetric sediment concentration larger than 0.19 is accordingly derived using 128 sets of observation data from nine Chinese gullies, in which both the effect of the volumetric sediment concentration and channel slope on resistance are considered. The derived equation is then verified and compared against five previously published equations by using 61 sets of published observation data from six gullies located in four countries. The applications of the proposed equation are discussed, and the improvements made using the proposed equation are clearly very significant when compared with the previously published equations.     

Research on mining-induced deformation and stress,insights from physical modeling and theoretical analysis

The dynamic change of mining-induced stress is the main reason for large deformation of surrounding rock. To investigate the influence of mining-induced stress and deformation is important for appropriate supportive design. It also helps to raise the safety and productivity of longwall mining operations. In this paper, Weijiagou Coal Mine in Southwest China was selected as the case study. In order to research on the deformation and breakage of overlying strata, physical modeling test was carried out on the self-developed rotatable physical similar test system. By using digital image correlation (DIC) technique, the deformation of strata and development of cracks in the process of coal seam excavation were acquired, meanwhile, mining-induced stress was also monitored by pressure cell and strainmeter. According to the mechanical structure of stope, the height of the destressed zone has a significant influence on stress distribution. In order to minimize the discrepancy between the physical model test and theoretical analysis, the dimension of the plastic zone of roadway was added into the mining panel width, and the gap between the experimental and theoretical results reduced.     

印支期龙门山断裂带的逆冲-推覆构造和沉积响应

伴随着华南、华北和羌塘地块在中—晚三叠世的俯冲—碰撞,古特提斯洋逐渐消亡,在龙门山及其前陆盆地发生了广泛的构造和沉积事件,统称为印支造山运动。然而,这期重要的造山事件普遍叠加有新生代印度与欧亚板块俯冲碰撞所引起的相似的北西—南东向构造挤压作用,使得印支期的构造活动对奠定龙门山初始构造和地貌特征,乃至对新生代构造活动的深远影响难以区分。对青藏高原其他边界的研究表明,只有通过多种手段从多个角度才能认清造山带形成的真实历史,而近些年来在龙门山地区开展的深地震探测、主断裂和飞来峰定年、前陆盆地沉积序列和沉积作用以及大地热流分布的研究则为我们进一步揭示印支初期龙门山断裂带构造活动本质提供了全新的视角。深地震反射剖面和最新的定年结果揭示龙门山地区在印支期发生了大型逆冲—推覆作用,在此期间,形成了两条主要断裂带,并直至后碰撞造山时期,形成了多期次的山前飞来峰构造。龙门山断裂带在印支期的大型逆冲—推覆构造活动,引发了大量的陆源碎屑沉积物涌入到四川前陆盆地中。强烈的断裂活动还引发了区域大地震的发生,在四川盆地西缘未完全固结沉积地层中形成了软沉积物变形。综合以往的研究结果,我们认为龙门山早期的逆冲—推覆和青藏高原东缘大地热流的升高伴随有区域岩石圈底部的拆沉导致软流圈高温物质的上涌。这种早期的构造格局对龙门山断裂带在新生代构造地貌的最终形成产生了深远的影响。     

东昆仑五龙沟金矿田控矿构造带的变形条件——来自EBSD组构的启示

五龙沟金矿田是东昆仑地区最重要的金矿集中区之一,金矿田主要控矿构造为偏脆性断裂破碎带,在三条控矿构造带中仅在萤石沟—红旗沟构造带邻近北侧的局部出露韧性变形带。本文作者运用电子背散射衍射技术(EBSD)技术方法,对东昆仑五龙沟金矿田萤石沟—红旗沟构造带变形岩石的组构分析显示,花岗质糜棱岩韧性变形强烈,大部分样品石英变形机制是以中温I级柱面(1010)1120滑移为主,变形式样比较单一;少量样品为中高温II级柱面(101—0)0001滑移和中低温底面(0001)112—0滑移。从岩石组构特点结合宏观构造分析,五龙沟金矿田萤石沟—红旗沟构造带及其邻近北侧经历了中-中深层次、中-中高温条件(15~25 km,t=350~550°C,P=0.40~0.60 Gpa)的韧性变形,局部叠加中浅层次、中低温条件(10~15 km,t=250~350°C,P=0.25~0.40 Gpa)的韧脆性变形;而岩金沟和三道梁—苦水泉构造带为低温低压条件的脆性破碎带。结合变形花岗闪长岩年代学资料,确定构造变形时代为早中生代。