渭河流域地表水可利用量分析计算

地表水可利用量是流域和区域水资源规划的重要指标.本文应用断面过流量减去河道内生态需用水量与河道外难控制利用弃水量,并扣除二者间重复计算量的算法,利用华县、状头两个水文站断面实测和统计数据,分析计算渭河多年平均地表水可利用量为54.91亿～66.33亿m~3/a.     

基于OSR-BP神经网络的丹江口秋汛期径流长期预报研究

针对丹江口流域秋汛期(9、10月)径流长期预报,为了消除网络输入的复共线性与网络训练的过拟合现象,将最优子集回归(OSR)和BP神经网络进行耦合,综合考虑训练误差和检验误差,来确定网络训练的最佳训练次数和终止务件,在此基础上提出基于OSR-BP神经网络的径流长期预报技术,并对丹江口秋汛期入库径流量进行了模拟和试报,结果表明:建立的模型稳定性良好,不论模拟还是试报精度均令人满意,特别是对预报年份中的丰枯特征均具有较好的体现.     

贵州某机场岩溶地基处理设计

目前,岩溶地区地基处理设计没有统一的规范或标准可以借鉴。本文根据机场自身特点,通过评判隐伏岩溶的埋藏深度、顶板安全厚度及顶板洞径比等三种主要因素,介绍了一种目前机场常用的岩溶地基处理评价方法,并结合贵州某机场岩溶地基处理设计情况,对场区隐伏岩溶进行评判并提出处理措施,为类似工程提供一些参考和借鉴。     

Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Regime Shift: Insights from Two Simple Mechanistic Models

Recent studies of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia suggest higher susceptibility to hypoxia in years after the 1980s. We used two simple mechanistic models and Bayesian estimation of their parameters and prediction uncertainty to explore the nature of this regime shift. Model estimates show increasing nutrient conversion efficiency since the 1980s, with lower DO concentrations and large hypoxic volumes as a result. In earlier work, we suggested a 35% reduction from the average 1980–1990 total nitrogen load would restore the Bay to hypoxic volumes of the 1950s–1970s. With Bayesian inference, our model indicates that, if the physical and biogeochemical processes prior to the 1980s resume, the 35% reduction would result in hypoxic volume averaging 2.7 km³ in a typical year, below the average hypoxic volume of 1950s–1970s. However, if the post-1980 processes persist the 35% reduction would result in much higher hypoxic volume averaging 6.0 km³. Load reductions recommended in the 2003 agreement will likely meet dissolved oxygen attainment goals if the Bay functions as it did prior to the 1980s; however, it may not reach those goals if current processes prevail.     

西藏西部措勤盆地措勤-洞错重、磁剖面的地质结构

为研究西藏措勤—洞错地区的地质结构,对2006年采集的1:50000重、磁剖面资料进行了分析、处理、曲线拟合计算与解释。结果表明,南端冈底斯基底走滑断隆带古生界褶皱基底很浅,缺失中生界;中部措勤盆地则埋深较大,最深可达9km,并表现为北深南浅的格局,主要充填了巨厚的中生界;北部班公湖-怒江缝合带的基底深度小于3km;剖面上羌塘地体的基底深度约3.5km。剖面中部措勤盆地北部坳陷与班公湖-怒江缝合带结晶基底磁性弱,北部和南部结晶基底磁性强。推断了12条断裂,其中F7断裂为措勤盆地北界,F1断裂为盆地南界。推断了6个花岗岩类岩体、2个蛇绿岩体及一套规模较大的火山岩,并描述了其地下赋存的特征。     

小波变换在饶阳凹陷层序地层格架建立中的应用

小波变换提供了一种研究层序地层格架的新方法,它将测井信号从一维深度域转换到二维深度—尺度域,从多尺度识别不同级次的地层旋回界面。根据小波变换的原理,确定了测井数据小波变换在层序地层划分中的地质意义,建立了四种小波变换中的地层旋回模型。在饶阳凹陷的实际应用中,选取自然伽马曲线进行小波变换,应用时频色谱图分析和快速傅里叶变换多种方法选取尺度因子。通过对时频色谱图和不同尺度下小波系数曲线的综合分析,对饶阳凹陷古近系G104井层序地层进行了划分,并以2 198.625m位置为突变界面,划分出两个较大尺度旋回,以2142.375m、2 163.875m、2 198.625m、2 238.625m位置为界面,划分出5个较小尺度旋回。实际结果应用表明,小波多尺度变换划分层序地层的结果和传统方法划分基本一致。     

基于遥感技术的龙门山前山带烃类微渗漏信息提取

通过对龙门山前山带含油区与非含油区的岩石、土壤、植被等进行测试,认为烃类微渗漏会造成地表热异常、红层褪色、低价铁富集以及粘土矿化等现象,并对研究区的粘土矿物、Fe3+、Fe2+与烃类的波普曲线特征进行了分析对比。以ETM卫星图像为主要信息源,选择了TM2/TM3、TM3/TM4和TM5/TM7进行比值处理,从光谱数据中直接提取出碳酸盐化、粘土矿化、红层褪色等油气蚀变信息,并在对研究区遥感地质解译的基础上,指出烃渗漏信息异常晕主要沿断裂带分布,特别在不同走向断裂的交汇区域分布面积和强度较大,而在已知油气圈闭区域,信息晕主要呈碎片状或斑点状零散分布,且以低值异常为主。根据烃渗漏异常的分布特征,提取出石板滩、中坝、孝泉、聚源、鸭子河以及邛崃等遥感信息异常区块。     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

晚更新世以来南黄海陆架沉积物源分析

南黄海陆架地区物源研究备受关注, 到底是长江还是黄河源至今尚未有定论。通过对长江和黄河流域锆石 U-Pb 测 年数据集混合模拟分析以及结合 YZ08 孔沉积相和锆石 U-Pb 的年龄图谱分析, 结果表明： 晚更新世以来, 南黄海陆架地区 存在长江古河道, MIs5 时期长江可能在苏北弶港入海; 在物源方面, MIs5 时期弶港地区主要受长江物源影响, MIs1λMIs2 时期则为长江主导的混合源, 随着黄河夺淮入海带来泥沙物质, 近代以来转为黄河主导的混合源。基于 Bootstrap 随机抽样 方法抓取了长江和黄河的锆石 U-Pb 测年数据集, 并结合统计学原理模拟出长江和黄河不同比例混合物源的锆石年龄图谱, 对锆石物源判别方法做出了改进, 弥补了传统锆石 U-Pb 年龄图谱在混合源判别分析上的不足, 对南黄海物源研究具有一定 的意义。     

The atmospheric circulation patterns influencing the frequency of spring sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the sand-storm frequency data fi＇om 37 weather stations in the Tarim Basin for the period 1961-2009, the relationship between the frequency of spring sandstorms in the Tafim Basin and the associated atmospheric circu- lation pattems is analyzed in this study. We found significantly negative correlations between sandstorm frequency and the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Paris Basin and midwestem Mongolia, while there were positive correlations over the Ural River region. The rising of the 500-hPa geopotential height in midwestem Mongolia and its falling over the Ural region corre- spond to a weakening of the large-scale wave patterns in the Eurasian region, which directly causes the frequency of the sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin to decline. Also, the abrupt decline in the spring sandstorm frequency in the Tarim Basin observed in the last half-century is associated with profound changes in the atmospheric circulation in these key regions. At the interannual scale, the strengthened cyclonic atmospheric circulation patterns in the western part of Mongolia and the anticyclonic patterns over the East European plains at 500-hPa geopotential height, are responsible for frequent sandstorm occurrences in the Tarim Basin.