Coupling maximum entropy modeling with geotagged social media data to determine the geographic distribution of tourists

Modeling the geographic distribution of tourists at a tourist destination is crucial when it comes to enhancing the destination’s resilience to disasters and crises, as it enables the efficient allocation of limited resources to precise geographic locations. Seldom have existing studies explored the geographic distribution of tourists through understanding the mechanisms behind it. This article proposes to couple maximum entropy modeling with geotagged social media data to determine the geographic distribution of tourists in order to facilitate disaster and crisis management at tourist destinations. As one of the most popular tourist destinations in the United States, San Diego was chosen as the study area to demonstrate the proposed approach. We modeled the tourist geographic distribution in the study area by quantifying the relationship between the distribution and five environmental factors, including land use, land parcel, elevation, distance to the nearest major road and distance to the nearest transit stop. The geographic distribution’s dependency on and sensitivity to the environmental factors were uncovered. The model was subsequently applied to estimate the potential impacts of one simulated tsunami disaster and one simulated traffic breakdown due to crisis events such as a political protest or a fire hazard. As such, the effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated with specific disaster and crisis scenarios.     

Analysis and prediction of Caspian Sea level pattern anomalies observed by satellite altimetry using autoregressive integrated moving average models

In this study, we successfully present the analysis and forecasting of Caspian Sea level pattern anomalies based on about 15 years of Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimetry data covering 1993–2008, which are originally developed and optimized for open oceans but have the considerable capability to monitor inland water level changes. Since these altimetric measurements comprise of a large datasets and then are complicated to be used for our purposes, principal component analysis is adopted to reduce the complexity of large time series data analysis. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is applied for further analyzing and forecasting the time series. The ARIMA model is herein applied to the 1993–2006 time series of first principal component scores (sPC1). Subsequently, the remaining data acquired from sPC1 is used for verification of the model prediction results. According to our analysis, ARIMA (1,1,0)(0,1,1) model has been found as optimal representative model capable of predicting pattern of Caspian Sea level anomalies reasonably. The analysis of the time series derived by sPC1 reveals the evolution of Caspian Sea level pattern can be subdivided into five different phases with dissimilar rates of rise and fall for a 15-year time span.     

未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源变化特征

基于区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出的RCP4.5气候情景数据分析表明,相较于1981-2010年,至2071-2097年冬小麦种植北界将平均向北移动147.8 km,北移面积约1.86×105 km²。选取代表光、温、水资源的9项农业气候资源指标,探究未来情景下,2021-2097年冬小麦潜在北移区内农业气候资源变化特征,结果表明：(1)相较于基准时段(1961-1990年),未来潜在北移区内光照资源变化呈减少趋势;热量资源呈明显增加趋势,在21世纪末的30年,波动性加大;降水资源整体增加趋势不明显,但波动性亦呈现增大趋势。(2)未来潜在北移区内,2030T (2021-2050年)、2050T (2041-2070年)和2070T (2061-2090年)时段光照资源在研究区域的东北部减少幅度较大,而在西南部较小;热量资源在研究区域的北部增加比南部明显;降水资源则主要在研究区域的东北部增加明显。     

Identification of diverse bacterial communities for potential bio-aids capable of troubleshooting for wastewater biological treatment processes

Three commercial bio-aid samples have shown good troubleshooting capabilities earlier during several biological wastewaters processing, but their microbial contents were still unclear. This study was aimed to assess eubacteria contents for the three bio-aids based on sequence comparisons of 16S ribosomal deoxyribonucleic acid (rDNA). Majority of target 16S rDNA sequences of bacteria within or cultured from bio-aids were obtained via pyrosequencing-based approach, and few sequences were from isolation- or cloning-sequencing approaches. Results showed that a total of 8114, 2327, and 5402 sequences were retrieved from pyrosequencing-based methods for the three bio-aids, respectively, which were affiliated with 100, 80, and 59 bacterial species based on sequence comparison using Ribosome Data Project (RDP) Classifier and Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST). Target sequences matched Bacillus sp., Enterococcus sp., and Clostridium sp. of Firmicutes phylum were the most abundant for the bio-aids, while some sequences identical to bacteria of phyla Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, Cyanobacteria, and Proteobacteria were also found. Additionally, most of sequences from the isolation- or cloning-sequencing-based methods were not retrieved by the pyrosequencing-based methods. Culture media appeared to potentially select several bacteria species within phyla Firmicutes and/or Proteobacteria, but sequences from the culture-based methods did fulfill some absences for the uncultured method. Based on principal coordinate analysis, bacteria community structures of the three bio-aids were different. This study provided insights into bacteria contents for the three bio-aids as fundamental information in attempts for future selection or formulation of suitable bio-aids for solving various troubles during wastewater biological processing.     

Statistical features of eddies approaching the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island and Luzon Island

This study examined the statistical features of eddies approaching the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island and Luzon Island. In total, 315 eddies (138 anticyclonic and 177 cyclonic eddies) were detected from 19.5 years of satellite altimeter sea-level data, with more than 95% of these eddies being generated in the ocean west of the Mariana Islands. Eddy trajectory statistics indicated that eddies frequently intrude into the Kuroshio regime at two latitude bands, namely 18°N–19°N and 22°N–23°N, with periods of 146 ± 62 and 165 ± 46 days, respectively. The interaction time is longer within the two active bands (33 ± 10 days at 18°N–19°N and 45 ± 17 days at 22°N–23°N) than at other latitudes. These two eddy-intrusion bands are associated with the northern and southern Subtropical Countercurrents (STCCs). These STCCs have a vertically reversed sign of the meridional potential vorticity gradient, thus providing a key energy source for eddy generation. In addition, when westward-propagating eddies approach the Ryukyu Islands, the southwestward recirculation flow east of the island chain as well as topographic effects cause some eddies to head southwestward to the east of Taiwan and intrude into the Kuroshio at 22°N–23°N, rather than to dissipate directly. Therefore, we suggest that the STCCs play a key role in inducing the eddies to frequently intrude into the Kuroshio at 18°N–19°N and 22°N–23°N. In addition, the Ryukyu Islands are responsible for concentrating the eddies within 22°N–23°N.     

The impact of Global Positioning System data on the prediction of an extratropical cyclone: an observing system simulation experiment

In this paper, we report a series of observing system simulation experiments that we conducted to assess the potential impact of Global Positioning System/meteorology (GPS/MET) refractivity data on short-range numerical weather prediction. We first conducted a control experiment using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 at 90-km resolution on an extratropical cyclone known as the ERICA (Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic) IOP 4 storm. The results from the control experiment were then used to simulate GPS/MET refractivity observations with different spatial resolution and measurement characteristics. The simulated refractivity observations were assimilated into an 180-km model during a 6-h period, which was followed by a 48-h forecast integration. Key findings can be summarized as follows:

• The assimilation of refractivity data at the 180-km resolution can recover important atmospheric structures in temperature and moisture fields both in the upper and lower troposphere, and, through the internal model dynamical processes, also the wind fields. The assimilation of refractivity data led to a considerably more accurate prediction of the cyclone.

• Distributing the refractivity randomly in space and applying a line averaging did not alter the results significantly, while reducing the spatial resolution from 180 km to 360 km produced a moderately degraded result. Even at the 360-km resolution, the GPS-type refractivity data still have a notable positive impact on cyclone prediction.

• Restricting the refractivity data to altitude 3 km and above considerably degraded its impact on cyclone prediction. This degradation was greater than the combined effects of distributing the refractivity data randomly, performing line averaging, and reducing the resolution to 360 km.

These results showed that the GPS/MET refractivity data is likely to have a significant impact on short-range operational numerical weather prediction. The random distribution and line averaging associated with the inherent GPS occultation do not pose a problem for effective assimilation. On the other hand, these results also argue that we need to improve the GPS/MET retrieval algorithm in order to recover useful data in the lower troposphere, and to increase the number of low-earth-orbiting satellites carrying GPS receivers in order to increase the density of GPS soundings, so that the potential impact of GPS/MET refractivity data on numerical weather prediction can be fully realized.     

应用电感耦合等离子体质谱法研究西藏甲玛超大型铜多金属矿床辉钼矿稀土元素和微量元素地球化学特征

西藏甲玛超大型铜多金属矿床的钼资源量大于100万吨,辉钼矿是最主要的钼矿物。本文应用电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)分析了不同期次辉钼矿,研究其稀土元素和微量元素的地球化学特征,以指示成矿流体的来源与性质,探讨其成矿机制。结果表明,辉钼矿的稀土元素总量(39.34~168.1μg/g)与斑岩、矽卡岩的稀土元素总量相似,富集轻稀土,且从早到晚总量增加,指示流体源自于岩浆。辉钼矿具有明显的Eu、Ce负异常和Sm正异常,其中Eu负异常指示流体的还原性质;Cu、Pb、Zn等成矿元素含量较高,指示流体中成矿元素的富集。     

Ordovician Stratigraphy of Erhtsun,Kunming

正 Erhtsun is a small village about 22 km northwest of Kunming.It liesin the valley dissected by the Shalangho~2 flowing from southeast to northwest     

菲律宾蛤仔(Ruditapes philippinarum)“斑马蛤2号”筏式和底播养殖模式比较研究

为探究菲律宾蛤仔（Ruditapes philippinarum）筏式养殖模式可行性，在我国黄海北部首次开展了菲律宾蛤仔"斑马蛤2号"新品种的筏式与底播养殖模式对比试验。采用平均壳长为2.37 cm，平均全湿重为2.99 g规格的"斑马蛤2号"苗种为试验材料，对两种养殖方式的"斑马蛤2号"生长、存活、营养成分进行比较分析，结果表明，筏式养殖"斑马蛤2号"夏季（4-7月）壳长、壳宽、壳高、全湿重、软体重的相对生长速率分别比底播养殖"斑马蛤2号"快149.54%、100.61%、116.30%、152.25%、132.58%（P<0.05）。筏式养殖"斑马蛤2号"存活率为90%以上，显著高于底播养殖（P<0.05）。两种养殖方式的"斑马蛤2号"水分、灰分、粗蛋白、糖原、脂肪酸等营养成分季节变化规律基本一致。筏式养殖"斑马蛤2号"冬季糖原、单不饱和脂肪酸含量明显高于底播养殖"斑马蛤2号"（P<0.05）。研究表明，当年10月采用多层聚乙烯网笼按密度为150-200粒/层放养菲律宾蛤仔"斑马蛤2号"大规格苗种（平均壳长为2.37 cm，平均全湿重为2.99 g），可于翌年的4月、7月、10月收获平均壳长为3.03、3.36、3.51 cm的市场规格产品。筏式养殖模式具有存活率高的优点。"斑马蛤2号"筏式养殖模式试验的成功为蛤仔健康养殖提供了新途径。