后“哥本哈根”时代的全球环境治理走向

2009年的哥本哈根世界气候大会并没有因为全球的关注和参与而成绩斐然。恰恰相反,因为美国的高调介入,它没有达成实质性的全球气候协议。这可能预示着后"哥本哈根"时代全球环境治理模式的到来:美国所倡导的"自下而上"的温室减排模式取代欧盟所倡导的"自上而下"的温室减排模式;以注重成本效益的经济减排模式取代风险预防的政治减排模式。世界也许将滑向一个容易但危险的方向。     

柴达木盆地东部石炭系页岩气储层渗流特征研究

页岩气是一种潜在资源量巨大的非常规天然气资源,页岩气藏具有多尺度的孔渗结构及多种渗流形态,研究页岩气藏储渗特征能够为页岩气的勘探开发提供理论支撑。该研究选取了柴达木盆地东部石炭系克鲁克组与怀头他拉组的页岩钻井岩心共5个样品,应用氩离子抛光扫描电镜实验与孔径分布测试(包括压汞法、氮气吸附法、二氧化碳吸附法)对页岩的孔隙结构特征进行定性定量测试。基于页岩气质量流量渗流模型,给出页岩表观渗透率与平均压力的关系。通过甲烷渗流模拟实验测定页岩的表观渗透率。从表观渗透率随平均压力的变化特征出发,分析页岩储层中的气体渗流规律。研究结果表明：页岩气的渗流形态包括滑脱流、扩散流及达西流。在低压情况下,渗透率低的页岩中以扩散流为主,其次为滑脱流。随渗透率的增大,渗流主要形式转变为滑脱流。当压力大于2 MPa时渗流形态以达西流为主,滑脱与扩散行为不明显。研究区内页岩微孔与中孔发育较多,达西渗透率与大孔的孔隙体积相关性较大,扩散流对表观渗透率的贡献与50 nm以下的孔隙孔体积比例有一定的相关性。低压下扩散流对表观渗透率的贡献较大,扩散流是一种非常重要的页岩气运移形式。     

区域建设中规划、土地、市政等专业数据整合应用基础研究

城市建设中,各市委、局、办之间协作和业务往来时,涉及数据种类繁多,使用频繁,重复建设严重.本文探讨了如何整合协同来源于不同部门的数据,实现建设部门之间的数据共享与高效服务.     

一种利用纹理特征和朴素贝叶斯分类器检测近景影像植被的方法

针对植被对近景摄影测量自动滑坡监测影响严重的问题,提出了一种基于纹理特征和朴素贝叶斯分类器的滑坡植被区域检测算法。对算法的有效性、影像对比度拉伸以及样本训练通用性对检测植被区域的效果等若干问题进行了实验探讨。通过与基于视觉认知特征的检测方法比较,验证了本算法的实用性和有效性。实验结果表明,本文算法能够很好地检测出近景影像中的植被区域,结果比较满意。     

AutoCAD Civil 3D和3ds Max Design在道路建模中的应用

介绍利用AutoCAD Civil 3D进行道路建模的过程,并将Civil 3D道路模型导入到3ds Max Design中作进一步加工,从而进一步获取道路的三维景观模型.     

Fine assessment of tropical cyclone disasters based on GIS and SVM in Zhejiang Province, China

Tropical cyclones represent major natural disasters in low- and mid-latitude coastal areas. Effective assessment of tropical cyclone disasters provides a scientific reference for the formulation of tropical cyclone prevention and disaster-relief measures. Tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province are mainly studied based on GIS technology, by considering disaster-causing factors, disaster-affected bodies, the disaster-formative environment, and spatial distribution of disaster prevention and relief capacity. In light of an uncertain nonlinear relationship between assessment factors and disaster factors, we used support vector machines to establish a fine, quantitative assessment model. This model evaluates the following disaster indices: Disaster-affected population, direct economic loss, affected crop area, and number of damaged houses resulting from a tropical cyclone disaster in Zhejiang, with the county as basic assessment unit. Assessment of tropical cyclone No. 0908 shows that the developed assessment model is able to accurately evaluate the geographical distribution of losses caused by a tropical cyclone.     

Assessment of economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters based on PCA-BP

Tropical cyclones are the most common natural disasters in coastal regions and are the most costly in terms of economic losses. Economic loss assessment is the basis for disaster prevention and alleviation and for insurance indemnification. We use data from 1970 to 2008 for Zhejiang Province, China, in this study evaluating economic losses. We convert direct economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province into indices of direct economic losses. To establish our assessment model, we process disaster-inducing assessment factors, disaster-formative environments and disaster-affected bodies using the principal component analysis method, and we abstract the principal component as the input of a BP neural network model. We found in the actual assessments of five tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province in 2007 and 2008 that the post-disaster loss assessment values of tropical cyclones were higher than the actual losses, but that for more severe storms, the gap was smaller. This reflects the beneficial effect of efforts toward disaster prevention and alleviation for severe tropical cyclones. Pre-assessments based on relatively accurate forecast values of wind and precipitation at the start of a tropical cyclone have been in accordance with the post-disaster assessment values, while the pre-assessment results using less accurate forecast values have been unsatisfactory. Therefore, this model can be applied in the actual assessment of direct economic loss from tropical cyclone damage, but increasingly accurate forecasting of wind and precipitation remains crucial to improving the accuracy of pre-assessments.     

A comprehensive survey of lignin geochemistry in the sedimentary organic matter along the Kapuas River (West Kalimantan, Indonesia)

In this first study of lignin geochemistry in the world’s longest river on an island, surface sediments were collected along the Kapuas River, three lakes in the upper river, a tributary in the lower river and a separate river during June-July 2007 and December 2007-January 2008. The samples were analyzed for lignin-derived phenols and bulk elemental and stable carbon isotope compositions. Λ values (the sum of eight lignin phenols, expressed as mg/100 mg organic carbon (OC)) ranged from 0.13 to 3.70. Ratios of syringyl/vanillyl (S/V) and cinnamyl/vanillyl (C/V) ranged from 0.34 to 1.18 and 0.28 to 1.40, respectively, indicating the presence of non-woody angiosperm tissues. The high vanillic acid to vanillin (Ad/Al)v (0.71-2.01) and syringic acid to syringaldehyde (Ad/Al)s (0.72-2.12) ratios indicate highly degraded lignin materials. In the upper Kapuas River, highly degraded soil materials discharged from lands that were barren as a result of deforestation activities were detected in the locations directly in those vicinities. The middle Kapuas River showed rapid organic matter degradation, probably due to the presence of fresh terrestrial and phytoplankton organic matter fueling the biogeochemical cycling. The Kapuas Kecil River, one of the two branches in the lower reach of the Kapuas River, showed higher levels and diagenesis of sedimentary organic matter due to input from anthropogenic sources and increased marine organic matter near the mouth. This study shows that different stretches along the river exhibit different levels and composition of sedimentary organic matter, as well as different carbon dynamics, which is directly attributable to the varying landscapes and quality of organic matter.     

地下结构对工程场地地震动场的影响

本文以日本神户市地铁大开站为工程背景,应用大型通用有限元ANSYS软件,分别建立了自然条件下的工程场地土层和建有地下车站结构的土层的二维有限元分析模型。计算了基岩一致地震动输入模式下2个土层模型的动力反应。通过将2个土层模型的动力反应进行比较分析,讨论了地下结构对工程场地地震动场的影响。分析结果表明,日本神户地铁大开站的存在对其邻近区域土层的地震反应有影响,但影响有限。     

“中国天然氧吧”品牌效益评估指标体系构建与应用——以江西省乐安县为例

开展“中国天然氧吧”品牌效益评估,对推动生态产品价值转换具有重要意义。运用层次分析法从生态效益、经济效益、社会效益三个方面构建了“中国天然氧吧”品牌效益评估指标体系,并细化为23个具体指标。结合模糊综合评价法,以江西省乐安县为例进行实际应用检验。结果表明：1）此效益评估体系和评估方法具有科学性和合理性,评价结果可以为政府部门合理开发旅游气候资源、推动“中国天然氧吧”品牌可持续发展提供借鉴。2）乐安县“中国天然氧吧”品牌综合效益属“良好”等级。3）针对低评分指标,提出当地政府需要加强生态环境保护规划、生态旅游开发力度和品牌宣传推广等建议。