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31.
This paper presents an optimal regulation programme, grey fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (GFSDP), for reservoir operation. It is composed of a grey system, fuzzy theory and dynamic programming. The grey system represents data by covering the whole range without loss of generality, and the fuzzy arithmetic takes charge of the rules of reservoir operation. The GFSDP deals with the multipurpose decision‐making problem by fuzzy optimization theorem. The practicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach is tested on the operation of the Shiman reservoir in Taiwan. The current M5 operating rule curves of this reservoir also are evaluated. The simulation results demonstrate that this new approach, in comparison with the M5 rule curves, has superior performance with regard to the total water deficit and number of monthly deficits. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
32.
Summary As revealed from the interannual variation of outgoing longwave radiation in the western Pacific, deep cumulus convection along the Meiyü-Baiu front and ITCZ is modulated by the anomalous summer circulation in the following manner: when the sea surface temperatures on the eastern tropical Pacific are anomalously warm (cold), cumulus convection is enhanced (suppressed) along the equator east of 150° E and along the Meiyü-Baiu front, but is suppressed (enhanced) along the equator west of 150° E and along a longitudinal zone (10° N–30° N) extending from the northern section of the South China Sea to the International Dateline. Since tropical deep cumulus convection exhibits a pronounced diurnal variation, the diurnal convection cycle in the western Pacific may undergo an interannual variation coherent with that of deep tropical cumulus convection. This inference is substantiated by our analysis of the diurnal convection cycle for 1980–1993 with 3-hour equivalent black-body temperature observed by the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS). As expected, the diurnal convection cycle in the western Pacific is subjected to an interannual variation in accordance with deep cumulus convection along the Meiyü-Baiu front and ITCZ. Except along the equator east of 150° E, the diurnal convection cycle does not exhibit a drastic interannual change in phase.  相似文献   
33.
Antecedent soil moisture or soil moisture status has a great impact on hydrological processes. Hydraulic redistribution (HR), a widely observed phenomenon, is defined as water distributed (typically at night) from moist soil to drier soil via plant roots, which plays an important role in soil moisture replenishment. Knowledge on seasonal patterns of HR and on the relationship between HR and soil water use is not fully understood. We investigated temporal variations in HR and total daily water use (Δθ) at stands of camphor and peach by monitoring soil moisture content in a humid region in eastern China. HR at the three locations reached its maximum values in summer (0.68 mm d−1 to 1.15 mm d−1) at depths of 15 cm and 35 cm. Redistributed water replenished 41% of water depleted in the soil at a 5–45-cm depth. Interestingly, normalized HR (i.e., HR/Δθ) showed a constant pattern during the growing season implying it is independent of seasonal climate alterations. This also indicated that HR had a stable effect on the replenishment of daily water use. Positive linear relationships between HR and Δθ were found at three measuring locations (camphor: R2 = .35, p < .01; peach1: R2 = .57, p < .01; peach2: R2 = .63, p < .01), suggesting a relatively stable inherent linkage between HR and Δθ. This study suggested that hydrological processes involving soil moisture status or antecedent soil moisture, needs to take the HR effect into account across timescales from intraday to seasonal.  相似文献   
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Improving the accuracy of flood prediction and mapping is crucial for reducing damage resulting from flood events. In this study, we proposed and validated three ensemble models based on the Best First Decision Tree (BFT) and the Bagging (Bagging-BFT), Decorate (Bagging-BFT), and Random Subspace (RSS-BFT) ensemble learning techniques for an improved prediction of flood susceptibility in a spatially-explicit manner. A total number of 126 historical flood events from the Nghe An Province (Vietnam) were connected to a set of 10 flood influencing factors (slope, elevation, aspect, curvature, river density, distance from rivers, flow direction, geology, soil, and land use) for generating the training and validation datasets. The models were validated via several performance metrics that demonstrated the capability of all three ensemble models in elucidating the underlying pattern of flood occurrences within the research area and predicting the probability of future flood events. Based on the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC), the ensemble Decorate-BFT model that achieved an AUC value of 0.989 was identified as the superior model over the RSS-BFT (AUC = 0.982) and Bagging-BFT (AUC = 0.967) models. A comparison between the performance of the models and the models previously reported in the literature confirmed that our ensemble models provided a reliable estimate of flood susceptibilities and their resulting susceptibility maps are trustful for flood early warning systems as well as development of mitigation plans.  相似文献   
36.
The crosslinking reaction caused by blending different biopolymers and/or adding a crosslinking agent to biopolymers was studied. The rate of crosslinking reaction was estimated with weight swelling ratio (WSR), viscosity, and biodegradability. The crosslinked material from blending two biopolymers or mixing a crosslinking agent with a mixture of two biopolymers showed a polymeric volume change, a high microbial resistance even after 80 days, and a viscosity increased because of chemical functional groups to form extensive intra- and interpenetrating polymer networks (IPNs). The organized IPN is a base block in building a three-dimensional (3-D) crosslinked biopolymer structure. This 3-D structure can be utilized in the environmental and geotechnical applications such as an environmental barrier or containment to encapsulate and treat hazardous materials against toxic flow in a subsurface engineering system.  相似文献   
37.
The dechlorination of aqueous polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using the ultrasound-assisted chemical process (UACP), which is a combination of ultrasonic irradiation and radical generations using di-tert-butyl peroxide as a radical initiator and ferrous ion as a catalyst at moderate temperature in alkaline 2-propanol, was demonstrated with a high reduction of PCBs. A commercial PCB-containing compound, Aroclor 1260, was also decomposed with the removal efficiency of 97 % achieved within 3 h of UACP. The gas chromatograph was used as a quantitative method to measure the decomposition rate of PCBs. The competitive elimination among the ortho (2-position), meta (3-position), and para (4-position) chlorine atoms of PCB was also identified.  相似文献   
38.
Elucidating the temporal natural history of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection provides not only useful information for assessing the spread of HBV infection but also a bedrock for economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategies (such as universal vaccination). HBV transmissions are transmitted through the maternal (vertical) route and environmental (horizontal) route. As the infection process from susceptible to active virus replication and finally to recovery state or to carrier state through both routes is not directly observable, mathematical models were therefore proposed to quantitatively elucidate the dynamic process of HBV infection with time. We began with a simple two-state model (from susceptible to infection) and further developed a five-state (including susceptible, latent phase, active viral replication, carrier, and recovery states) stochastic process to quantify the dynamics of HBV infection, making allowances for a mixed proportion of vertical and horizontal transmissions. The data used in the estimation, which were collected before implementation of a policy for universal HBV vaccination, were derived from several previous serum prevalence studies, including both low (northern) and high (southern) HBV prevalence areas, in Taiwan. The parameters obtained from stochastic models were converted to compute the basic reproductive number (R0) in each study to indicate the extent of the spread of HBV infection. By linking the temporal natural history of HBV infection with the previously established Markov process for the sequelae of HBV infection (chronic hepatitis infection, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocelluar carcinoma), we developed a Markov cycle decision tree to evaluate the two population-based preventive strategies related to vaccination and maternal lamivudine use with a cost-effectiveness analysis. In the five-state model, horizontal transmission was found to contribute more to HBV infection than vertical transmission in the northern area (59 vs. 41 %), whereas vertical transmission was more likely than horizontal transmission in the southern area (80 vs. 20 %). After considering the parameters of the two transmission routes, annual infection rate (person-years) for susceptible subjects was higher in the northern area (0.35) than the southern area (0.011). A similar finding was noted for annual rate of the transition from the latent period to active viral replications (1.12 in the northern area and 0.072 in the southern area). Annual rate of the conversion from active viral replication to the carrier state was higher in the southern area (0.184) than the northern area (0.119). Annual recovery rates were 0.014 in the northern area and 0.024 in the southern area for the carrier and 0.048 and 0.088 for transient viremia. The R0 at age 30 using the parameters obtained from the five-state stochastic model was estimated as 4.88 in the northern and 7.03 in the southern area. Regarding the findings of economic appraisal, both preventive strategies were cost-saving, yielding the negative value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, compared with the baseline group (no intervention), regardless of areas. The preventive strategies in the southern area were more cost-saving than those in the northern area. The consolidation of elucidating the temporal natural history of HBV infection, estimating basic reproductive number, and conducting an economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategy can aid health policy-makers in designing effective preventive strategies in other countries worldwide where HBV is still prevalent. However, the empirical findings on transmission routes and the temporal evolution of HBV infection varying with areas should be considered with great caution as only two studies were modeled.  相似文献   
39.
This paper presents general composed analytical models to predict the behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns. The analytical models were developed in OpenSees to represent the common hysteretic behavior of RC bridge columns. The proposed composed models can accommodate flexure failure, flexure‐shear failure, and pure shear failure, which are observed in existing RC bridge piers. The accuracy of the models was verified using data from the static cyclic‐loading experiments of 16 single columns and one multi‐column bent and dynamical experiment from two pseudo‐dynamic tests. The results showed that the analytical models could simulate the nonlinear behavior until the post‐failure behavior, including the strength degradation, the buckling of the reinforcement, and the pinching effect. Therefore, a global view of the behavior of reinforcement concrete is prescribed as simply as possible from the academic perspective, and these models are expected to provide sufficient accuracy when applied in engineering practice. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
40.
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