黄河中游夏季降水异常的先兆特征和预测方法

本文利用黄河中游61站降水资料,分析了其变化规律和同期及前期环境场特征,并建立了夏季降水预测模型。研究发现：黄河中游夏季降水具有显著的年际变化特征,显著周期在3年左右;黄河中游夏季降水主要受到同期东亚高空急流、西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)以及贝加尔湖附近低槽的影响,当急流和副高偏强（弱）偏北（南）、贝加尔湖附近高度场偏低（高）时,黄河中游降水偏多（少）。另外,前期秋季南方涛动指数、北非副热带高压（20°W~60°E）、南海副热带高压（100°~120°E）、北半球副高强度及北半球极涡强度发生异常时,对夏季环流产生影响,从而影响黄河中游夏季降水,据此,建立预测模型。评估发现该模型具有较强的预测能力,可用于黄河中游夏季降水的定量预测。     

塔里木盆地巴楚—麦盖提地区石炭系混合沉积研究*

通过岩心、薄片观察,从岩石学特征入手,结合测井资料,对塔里木盆地巴楚—麦盖提地区石炭系的陆源碎屑—碳酸盐混积岩和混积层系进行了研究。根据混积强度将混积岩划分为混积型碎屑岩、混积型碳酸盐岩和高度混积岩。巴楚组下泥岩段和中泥岩段发育混积型碎屑岩,巴楚组生屑灰岩段、中泥岩段和小海子组发育混积型碳酸盐岩,卡拉沙依组上泥岩段、巴楚组下泥岩段及巴什托局部地区的中泥岩段发育高度混积岩。高度混积岩出现在海退期沉积的碎屑岩段,代表了陆源碎屑—碳酸盐强烈混合的过渡性沉积环境。研究区石炭系可识别出4个三级层序,混积层系主要发育在海侵体系域早期和高位体系域晚期,以间断混合和相缘混合为主。研究认为混积强度是评价混合沉积环境性质的主要参数,并将其划分为4级。下泥岩段存在混积强度达3级以上的混积界面,能用于地层对比。最后,结合混合沉积特征讨论了构造运动和海平面变化对研究区石炭系层序组以上的混合沉积的控制作用。     

我国月降水量气候噪声的估计

利用我国大陆均匀分布的70个测站1961~1991年逐日降水量资料, 讨论了月降水量的气候噪声的3种估计方法, 并分别用改进后的方法估计了1、4、7、10月四个有代表性月份降水量的气候噪声.结果表明:我国月降水量的气候噪声随着降水量增加, 具有明显的季节变化, 一般夏季月份的噪声显著大于冬季月份, 秋季月份稍高于春季月份.从空间分布看, 春、夏、秋、冬全国绝大部分地区的气候噪声由南向北、由沿海向内陆明显减小.     

喇嘛苏铜矿床斑岩体地质地球化学特征及含矿性评价

矿区内广泛发育以斜长花岗斑岩和花岗闪长斑岩为主的中酸性斑岩体。斑岩的结构特征反映出岩浆浅成侵位成因。研究表明该区斑岩具有相对富硅和富碱高钾的岩石化学特征,属钙碱性系列;具有Ｃｕ、Ａｇ、Ｂｉ等成矿元素高丰度的微量元素地球化学特征和低ΣＲＥＥ与高δＥｕ值的稀土地球化学特征。矿区内铜矿化富集在斑岩体内外接触带,斑岩体深源浅成特点和富碱高钾岩石化学特征于铜矿化富集有利。Ｃｕ、Ａｇ等成矿元素高丰度及其与矿化类型一致性说明成矿与岩浆活动有密切成因关系。     

Residents′Activity-travel Behavior Variation by Communities in Beijing,China

China’s transition from a planned economy to a market economy has resulted in many changes in its urban structure and society and provided an opportunity for a quasi-longitudinal case study on the relationship between the built environment and activity-travel behavior.This paper draws upon data from an activity diary survey conducted in Beijing in 2007.The survey sample comprised 652 residents living in Danwei(work unit),commodity housing,and affordable housing neighborhoods.On the basis of the three-dimensional geo-visualization analysis of the space-time path and statistical multivariate regression models of daily travel and leisure time,it was found that both residential spatial factors and socio-demographics influence residents’ daily behaviors.The findings show that Danwei residents have less daily travel time than those who live in commodity housing,but people living in affordable housing endure the longest travel time.Daily leisure time is associated more with individual attributes.We argue that although China’s transition is currently gradual,the Danwei system may continue to play significant roles in daily life,and it might provide a valuable model for neighborhood spatial planning.     

塔里木盆地塔中志留系柯坪塔格组物源示踪:碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学证据

目前对塔中志留系物源的认识仍存在不确定性.利用LA-ICP-MS分析技术对塔里木盆地塔中地区志留系柯坪塔格组2件样品开展碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学研究.结果表明塔中志留系碎屑锆石主要为岩浆结晶成因,锆石年龄主要分布在早古生代460～490 Ma、新元古代760～1000 Ma、古元古代1600～2200 Ma及新太古代晚期...     

Analysis of effects of active sources on observed phase velocity based on the thin layer method

In the wave field induced by active sources, the observed phase velocity of surface waves is influenced by both mode incompatibility (i.e. non-planar spread of surface waves is idealized as plane waves) and body waves. Effects of sources are usually investigated based on numerical simulations and physical models. Several methods have been proposed to mitigate the effects. In application, however, these methods may also have difficulties since the energy of the body waves depends on soil stratification and parameters. There are multiple modes of surface waves in layered media, among which the higher modes dominate the wave field for soils with the irregular shear velocity profiles. Considering the mode incompatibility and the higher modes, we derive analytical expressions for the effective phase velocity of the surface waves based on the thin layer stiffness method, and investigate the effects of the body waves on the observed phase velocity through the phase analysis of the vibrations of both the surface waves and the body waves. The results indicate that the effective phase velocity of the surface waves in layered media varies with the frequency and the spread distance, and is underestimated compared to that of the plane surface waves in the spread range less than about one wavelength. The oscillations that appeared in the observed phase velocity are due to the involvement of the body waves. The mode incompatibility can be ignored in the range beyond one wavelength, while the influence range of the body waves is far beyond one wavelength. The body waves have a significant influence on the observed phase velocity of the surface waves in soils with a soft layer trapped between the first and the second layers because of strong reflections.     

GNSS多天线基线网单历元模糊度同步解算法

提出多天线基线网单历元模糊度同步解算法,其具体实现步骤为:1)根据宽巷组合模糊度易于固定的优点,采用附加已知基线长度约束法同步解算各基线的宽巷模糊度,得到dm～cm级精度的近似基线分量;2)将解算得到的各近似基线分量作为约束,同步解算各基线的基频模糊度,以获取mm级精度的基线矢量。该方法的关键在于检验各历元宽巷模糊度解算的正确性,以获取可靠的近似基线分量,为解算各基线的基频模糊度提供准确的基线先验信息。由于动态情况下各历元观测信息比较少,单纯依赖ratio检验不可靠,提出结合基线误差、单位权中误差、基线网模糊度闭合环及ratio值等对多组宽巷模糊度进行检验,避免ratio值设置不当导致模糊度检验中发生纳伪和弃真问题。实测数据结果证明,该处理方法使得模糊度解算的成功率提高1%～2%,可以获取移动平台更丰富的导航信息,提高其服务能力。     

Research on Dynamic Parameters of Soil Site in the Tianjin Coastal Area

The Tianjin coastal area is a typical soft soil region,where the soil is a marine deposit of the late Quaternary.The soil dynamic parameters from seismic risk assessment reports are collected,and drilling of 15 holes was carried out to sample the soils and measure their dynamic characteristics.The data was divided into 7 types based on lithology,namely,muddy clay,muddy silty clay,silt,silty clay,clay,silty sand and fine sand.Statistics of the dynamic parameters of these soils are collected to obtain the mea...     

2016年10月我国降水预测失败的原因分析

本文回顾了2016年10月降水业务预报中考虑的动力模式预测信息、前兆信号及其影响。2016年10月全国平均降水量为1951年以来历史同期最多,且环流形势和要素分布特征在月内均发生明显转折。业务发布预报在华北南部、黄淮、江淮、江汉等地降水异常与实况存在较大差异,同时对月内环流形势调整及降水变率估计不足。数值模式预报和物理因子诊断预测与实况的对比分析表明,环流形势整体分布特征预报与实况较为一致,但对西太平洋副热带高压等环流因子的强度、西伸脊点位置以及月内变率的预报与实况存在较大差异。从大气对热带海温信号的滞后响应以及同期相关分析表明,El Nino事件次年秋季副热带高压往往持续偏强偏北。10月赤道太平洋东冷西暖,暖池区对流活跃,东亚上空出现的异常经向环流圈通过低层径向风异常及异常辐合辐散,在日本岛附近形成反气旋式环流距平,也有利于副热带高压加强北抬。9、10月热带印度洋偶极子负位相有利于印缅槽加强,从而有利于水汽向我国东部地区输送。来自副热带高压外围的异常东南水汽和来自西南的水汽共同输送到我国中东部地区,并与南下冷空气交汇产生异常水汽辐合,造成这些地区降水明显偏多。此外10月热带对流活动依然活跃,台风的生成、登陆个数均较常年偏多,是我国东南沿海降水偏多的主要原因。