富营养化湖泊蓝藻—芦苇碎屑堆积分解过程及其潜在的共代谢效应

为探究富营养化浅水湖泊所富集的有机物对湖泊碳循环和水质的影响,本研究构建微宇宙系统,模拟蓝藻和芦苇碎屑单独分解及混合分解过程.通过测定各组上覆水营养盐浓度、有机质含量及结构的变化,揭示富营养化湖泊藻草残体混合分解过程中养分和有机碳的释放特征.结果 表明,在实验0～88 h内,在添加相同的碳源条件下,蓝藻和芦苇混合处理组...     

Predictor Selection for CNN-based Statistical Downscaling of Monthly Precipitation

Convolutional neural networks(CNNs) have been widely studied and found to obtain favorable results in statistical downscaling to derive high-resolution climate variables from large-scale coarse general circulation models(GCMs).However, there is a lack of research exploring the predictor selection for CNN modeling. This paper presents an effective and efficient greedy elimination algorithm to address this problem. The algorithm has three main steps: predictor importance attribution, predictor rem...     

广东省群发性高温事件的气候特征研究

基于1961—2020年广东省86个国家自动气象站的日最高气温数据,采用一种客观识别方法,对广东省群发性高温事件进行回算识别,结果得到广东省群发性高温事件呈显著增长趋势,且在1990年代发生一次年代际突变,群发性高温事件主要发生在4—10月,其频次、强度、持续时间和空间影响范围等特征参数均呈现以7月为最盛期的类单峰式分布。值得关注的是,近60年来广东群发性短历时高温事件呈略微减少趋势,而长历时(≥6天)的事件数呈现显著增加趋势,这给政府的防灾减灾造成更大的难度。     

Palaeo-hydrogeological control on groundwater As levels in Red River delta,Vietnam

To study the geological control on groundwater As concentrations in Red River delta, depth-specific groundwater sampling and geophysical logging in 11 monitoring wells was conducted along a 45 km transect across the southern and central part of the delta, and the literature on the Red River delta’s Quaternary geological development was reviewed. The water samples (n = 30) were analyzed for As, major ions, Fe²⁺, H₂S, NH₄, CH₄, δ¹⁸O and δD, and the geophysical log suite included natural gamma-ray, formation and fluid electrical conductivity. The SW part of the transect intersects deposits of grey estuarine clays and deltaic sands in a 15–20 km wide and 50–60 m deep Holocene incised valley. The NE part of the transect consists of 60–120 m of Pleistocene yellowish alluvial deposits underneath 10–30 m of estuarine clay overlain by a 10–20 m veneer of Holocene sediments. The distribution of δ¹⁸O-values (range −12.2‰ to −6.3‰) and hydraulic head in the sample wells indicate that the estuarine clay units divide the flow system into an upper Holocene aquifer and a lower Pleistocene aquifer. The groundwater samples were all anoxic, and contained Fe²⁺ (0.03–2.0 mM), Mn (0.7–320 μM), SO₄ (<2.1 μM–0.75 mM), H₂S (<0.1–7.0 μM), NH₄ (0.03–4.4 mM), and CH₄ (0.08–14.5 mM). Generally, higher concentrations of NH₄ and CH₄ and low concentrations of SO₄ were found in the SW part of the transect, dominated by Holocene deposits, while the opposite was the case for the NE part of the transect. The distribution of the groundwater As concentration (<0.013–11.7 μM; median 0.12 μM (9 μg/L)) is related to the distribution of NH₄, CH₄ and SO₄. Low concentrations of As (?0.32 μM) were found in the Pleistocene aquifer, while the highest As concentrations were found in the Holocene aquifer. PHREEQC-2 speciation calculations indicated that Fe²⁺ and H₂S concentrations are controlled by equilibrium for disordered mackinawite and precipitation of siderite. An elevated groundwater salinity (Cl range 0.19–65.1 mM) was observed in both aquifers, and dominated in the deep aquifer. A negative correlation between aqueous As and an estimate of reduced SO₄ was observed, indicating that Fe sulphide precipitation poses a secondary control on the groundwater As concentration.     

区域地质环境稳定性大地测量监测方法及应用

全球大地测量观测系统(GGOS)已在地球变化监测中得到了广泛应用。本文系统介绍了综合大地测量各类观测数据,以及地质、地震等资料,开展区域地质环境稳定性大地测量监测和评价的方法。以环渤海区域和川滇区域为例,分别针对地面沉降显著、地震多发等不同地质环境特征,介绍了区域地质环境稳定性监测技术最新进展及应用成果。结果表明,针对不同地质环境背景,基于各类大地测量监测数据,结合地质、地震、水文等资料,可有效实现区域地质环境稳定性监测和评价,拓展了大地测量地球变化监测的应用领域,有重要的科学意义和实用价值。     

地球自转参数的RFFLS短期预报算法研究

地球自转参数(ERP)是实现地心天球坐标系(geocentric celestial reference system,GCRS)与国际地球坐标系(international terrestrial reference system,ITRS)相互转换的必要参数,是国际GNSS服务组织(IGS)和国际GNSS监测评估系统(iGMAS)分析中心的重要产品。本文针对最小二乘地球自转参数预测算法会造成数据饱和以及新旧数据在数据处理及预报中被同等对待等问题,将遗忘因子引入最小二乘预测算法,进而提高ERP预报精度。遗忘因子递推最小二乘算法能防止数据饱和,降低旧数据的影响,加强新数据的作用,降低在求解拟合参数时出现秩亏矩阵求逆的几率,提高预报精度。本文详细推导了遗忘因子递推最小二乘表达式,探究了最佳遗忘因子,并通过ERP试验将该方法和原最小二乘的试验结果及LS-AR模型的预报结果作对比,发现仅用遗忘因子最小二乘模型预测就可以达到与LS-AR组合模型预测相当的精度。     

玄武岩—水相互作用的溶解机理研究

在常温常压排除大气干扰的封闭体系条件下,将一定粒度的玄武岩样品浸泡在不同酸度的水溶液里,研究玄武岩－水相互作用过程中元素释放和溶液酸度的变化情况。结果发现：（１）经过一段时间后,溶液中主要元素的浓度趋向平衡;（２）溶液酸度发生明显变化,即不论反应初始溶液是碱性的还是酸性的,最终都将趋于中性,我们把此现象称为溶液的中性化效应。根据溶液中溶解组分的浓度和样品表面组成的ＸＰＳ测定结果,提出玄武岩在碱性和酸性溶液中不同的溶解机理。     

汶川地震前后川滇地区主要断裂活动趋势分析

针对川滇地区地震活动频繁的现状,该文首先对1998—2008年和2008—2015年该地区两期GNSS连续观测数据进行解算(时间节点为汶川地震);然后结合前人对川滇区域棱形块体的划分方案,基于欧拉矢量计算方法求出各块体的欧拉矢量以及旋转极经度、旋转极纬度、旋转角速度,并通过反欧拉矢量方法反演出鲜水河-小江断裂带和龙门山断裂带的错动趋势变化。结果表明:汶川地震造成两条断裂带在错动方向和错动速率方面均有变化,并且主要集中在川滇区域北部和西部的断裂带上。     

滑坡危险度评价对BCS负样本采样的敏感性

滑坡负样本在基于统计方法的滑坡危险度制图中具有重要作用,能够抑制统计方法对滑坡危险度的高估。缓冲区控制采样(Buffer controlled sampling,BCS)是一种广泛使用的负样本采样方法,其原理是认为滑坡点附近一定范围内的地理环境与滑坡点所在的地理环境相似,易发生滑坡,因而应当在灾害点一定缓冲区以外的区域采集负样本。目前缓冲区大小主要是根据专家对研究区的经验知识确定,具有主观性。缓冲区大小对基于统计方法的滑坡危险度制图的影响研究较少。因此,有必要分析缓冲区大小与滑坡危险度制图精度之间的关系,探究适宜的缓冲区大小。以陇南山区的油坊沟流域为研究区,基于BCS负样本采样方法,探究不同缓冲区大小对基于支持向量机(Support vector machine,SVM)的滑坡危险度制图结果的影响。结果表明:缓冲区过小会导致与滑坡点地理环境相似的假的负样本的存在,从而导致滑坡危险度的低估;缓冲区过大会导致负样本在环境特征空间中太局限,负样本集的全局代表性差,从而导致滑坡危险度的高估。在本研究区基于SVM的滑坡危险度制图中,200~500m是使用BCS采集负样本的较理想的缓冲区大小。