On the evolution of finite-amplitude disturbance to the barotropic and baroclinic quasigeostrophic flows

ＯｎｔｈｅＥｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｏｆＦｉｎｉｔｅ－ａｍｐｌｉｔｕｄｅＤｉｓｔｕｒｂａｎｃｅｔｏｔｈｅＢａｒｏｔｒｏｐｉｃａｎｄＢａｒｏｃｌｉｎｉｃＱｕａｓｉｇｅｏｓｔｒｏｐｈｉｃＦｌｏｗｓ①ＭｕＭｕ（穆穆）ａｎｄＸｉａｎｇＪｉｅ（项杰）ＬＡＳＧ,Ｉｎｓｔ...     

各向异性介质中的AVO

分析了横向各向同性和方位各向异性介质的本构关系,由此讨论弹性波在两种各向异性介质中的传播特点,提出可表征这两种介质各向异性程度的广义参数．以此为基础讨论了两种各向异性介质中存在水平界面时的反射系数近似式,将Dely等人推导的横向各向同性介质中的反射系数公式推广到方位各向异性介质的主轴方向上．根据算例讨论修正的Banik和Thomsen的近似式,着重分析两种各向异性介质中的AVO关系及其对实际勘探的影响和指导意义．     

从天文观测和生物节律论证古生物钟的可靠性

关于地球自转的速度,两百多年以来,天文学的观察计算积累了大量数据。1960年,Munk和MacDonald总结了前人的工作,肯定了地球自转角速度的长期的减慢。他们说:古生代开始的时候自转角速度比现在大得多;那时一天只有21小时。 天文学上这一论断是否正确无误,地球物理学无法验证。古生物学异军突起,找出了不容置疑的事实,有力地支援了天文学的重要发现。地球物理学家Runcorn(1970)表示欢迎。他说:“古生物学前来拯救地球物理学家”。     

星基空间人造飞行器探测概率分析

随着空间飞行器数量的日益增多,空间碰撞的概率也逐步加大。为了确保自身飞行器的安全,同时为了减少对目前在轨的飞行器的干扰,通过某种途径来感知空间飞行器的信息,包括轨道和结构外形等参数,是十分必要的。除了地基手段对空间飞行器进行观测外,星基空间飞行器探测是一种不可或缺的补充手段。文章通过对所掌握的空间飞行器数据库,给出了基于地球低轨道观测卫星情况下,星基空间飞行器探测概率的统计结果。     

风暴潮灾害情景下海岸带暴露指数时空演变研究——以福建省东山湾为例

暴露指数反映了环境在面对极端天气事件时承受灾害的潜在风险程度。研究利用遥感影像数据、数字高程数据(DEM)、海洋水深及风力数据等, 基于暴露指数模型, 以福建省东山湾为案例研究区域, 对风暴潮灾害情景下的海岸带暴露指数及其时空演变进行分析。研究结果显示: (1)近十年来, 东山湾海岸带暴露指数总体呈下降趋势, 潜在风险程度为“中”及以上区域占比由67.14%下降至59.06%, 海岸带在面对风暴潮灾害等极端天气事件时潜在的风险程度总体降低, 海湾地貌类型差异及其形态变化是影响东山湾暴露指数产生波动的主要原因; (2)基于暴露指数评价结果, 结合海岸带开发利用现状, 研究可对东山湾海岸带生态环境的敏感区域进行识别, 并制定具有针对性的开发利用与风险防范对策, 为海岸带空间规划、生态保护修复格局的科学划定提供理论支撑, 在助力海岸带陆海统筹和可持续发展上具有重要意义; (3)研究提出的一种基于时间序列的暴露指数研究技术路线和框架, 可为海岸带脆弱性评估、海岸带韧性评估、海岸带灾害监测预警等相关研究提供新的研究视角, 在基于深度学习的海岸带灾害风险预警与灾害模拟等方面也具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

GROUNDWATER QUALITY AND CONTAMINATION INDEX MAPPING IN CHANGCHUN CITY, CHINA

1INTRODUCTIONGroundwater in Changchun City assures about 45% of total water supply. Drinking water supply of Chang-chun City was mostly served by surface water from Shitoukoumen and Xinlicheng reservoirs located in the east and south of the city (ZHANG, 1993). However, with the development of urban construction the ground-water especially from deep boreholes is also used for drinking purpose in suburban areas. The urbanization process in Changchun City threatens the groundwater quali…     

Shift-share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness - A Case of Jiangsu Province

Shift-share analysis has been confirmed a useful approach in the study of regional economics and many kinds of extended shift-share models have been advanced and put into practice in economic studies, but few have hitherto been introduced and applied to the tourism research in China. Moreover understanding the spatially competitive relationship is of paramount importance for marketers, developers, and planners involved in tourism strategy development. Based on international tourism receipts from 1995 to 2004, this study aims at probing into the spatial competitiveness of interna- tional tourism in Jiangsu Province in comparison with its neighbors by applying a spatially extended shift-share model and a modified dynamic shift-share model. The empirical results illustrate that exceptional years may exist in the ap- plication of dynamic shift-share models. To solve this issue, modifications to dynamic shift-share model are put forward. The analytical results are not only presented but also explained by the comparison of background conditions of tourism development between Jiangsu and its key competitors. The conclusions can be drawn that the growth of international tourism receipts in Jiangsu mainly attributes to the national component and the competitive component and Zhejiang is the most important rival to Jiangsu during the period of 1995-2004. In order to upgrade the tourism competitiveness, it is indispensable for Jiangsu to take proper positioning, promoting and marketing strategies and to cooperate and integrate with its main rivals.     

Helicity Patterns of the Active Regions Connected by Transequatorial Loops

Using photospheric vector magnetograms of the Huairou Solar Observing Station and coronal X-ray images from the Yohkoh Soft X-Ray Telescope, we calculate the helicity patterns of 43 pairs of active regions and the chirality of 50 pairs of opposite magnetic polarity regions that are connected by transequatorial loops (TLs). To make the results more convincing, two helicity proxies including the local current helicity h _c and the force-free factor α _best are computed. The results, which are similar for both parameters, are as follows: (1) Current helicity of the active regions pairs connected by transequatorial loops have no obvious regularity: About 50% of the active region pairs carry the same current helicity sign and about 50% of them have the opposite. (2) If we consider the magnetic polarity pairs connected by the TLs, the result is almost the same as that for the active region pairs, with a little more than half of them showing the same chirality. We also make linear force-free extrapolations for 33 TLs and determine their force-free parameter α by comparing extrapolated field lines to X-ray images of the TLs. Out of the 19 cases when the footpoints of the TLs have the same current helicity sign, we find that the sign of α of the TLs is the same as the sign of the current helicity in the footpoints in 12 cases, whereas it is of opposite sign in 4 cases, and in 3 cases the TLs were found to be potential.     

IMPLEMENTATION OF CLEANER PRODUCTION STRATEGIES TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE CITY

Rapid urbanization and growing size of cities will have an increasing impact on the global environment in the 21st century. As an engine of urban development to drive economic growth and technological innovations, industry has moved its focus from controlling environmental hazards to stimulating sustainable industrial development throughout the entire product lifecycle. These process- and technology-driven innovations for industrial production are prerequisites for enhancement of urban environment and sustainable development of cities. In this review, problems of environment and resources scarcity associated with rapid urbanization are demonstrated. And, on the basis of expatiations on the concepts and policies of the cleaner production (CP) and other similar initiatives with the goal of preventing pollution at the source and of managing the raw material more efficiently, two different ways to link the practice of cleaner production in industrial sector with performance of urban environment are discussed in detail. Then, the introduction, practice and legislation of CP strategies in China are outlined, and possibility for China to develop CPC (Cleaner Practices for Cities) approaches in the demonstration cities is discussed. Finally, some suggestions on implementation of CPC strategies are put forward.