1983年菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体异常分布特征及其有关问题讨论

全面、系统地分析研究了菏泽５．９级地夺前地下流体异常时空分布及其场兆、源兆特征。结果表明,异常空间分布与活动构造密切相关,断裂端部和交汇处是异常响应的第三地区。单位面积异常台项数,震中及附近地区远高于外围地区。震前１个月左右,异常台项月频次大幅度增高,单项异常的时间演化有持续型、完整型和突跳型三种类型。源兆异常具有中期、短期、临震异常配套、水化我组分同步异常变化、宏观异常多点成片、持续时间长、幅度     

A Simulation Study on the Evolution of Groundwater Circulation Systems in Cenozoic Basins of Northern China

Three Cenozoic basins-the Qaidam basin, the Weihe graben-type basin and the North China plain-which are different in climatic conditions, geological settings and run-off types, are selected for the study. Based on an analysis of background information of the transect along the middle-latitude region, studies of groundwater dynamics, geochemistry, simulation of water circulation of the main elements as well as isotopic chronology, the information on global changes is collected, the formation of groundwater circulation systems and their evolution under stacked impacts of natural conditions and human activities are discussed, and a correlation is made between the evolutionary features of the above systems in these basins since 25 ka B.P. All these have laid a good foundation for further generalizing the evolutionary model of land water in northern China.     

贵金属资源的应用及开发

将贵金属的应用,资源分布,生产和贵金属的分析化学结合在一起进行了综述,由于贵金属资源的短缺性及考虑可持续发展战略,特别介绍了贵金属资源的二次回收问题,并对其将来的发展作了一定的评价和展望。     

QUATERNARY FOLDING OF THE XIHU ANTICLINE BELT ALONG FORELAND BASIN OF NORTH TIANSHAN

Tianshan is one of the longest and most active intracontinental orogenic belts in the world. Due to the collision between Indian and Eurasian plates since Cenozoic, the Tianshan has been suffering from intense compression, shortening and uplifting. With the continuous extension of deformation to the foreland direction, a series of active reverse fault fold belts have been formed. The Xihu anticline is the fourth row of active fold reverse fault zone on the leading edge of the north Tianshan foreland basin. For the north Tianshan Mountains, predecessors have carried out a lot of research on the activity of the second and third rows of the active fold-reverse faults, and achieved fruitful results. But there is no systematic study on the Quaternary activities of the Xihu anticline zone. How is the structural belt distributed in space?What are the geometric and kinematic characteristics?What are the fold types and growth mechanism?How does the deformation amount and characteristics of anticline change?In view of these problems, we chose Xihu anticline as the research object. Through the analysis of surface geology, topography and geomorphology and the interpretation of seismic reflection profile across the anticline, we studied the geometry, kinematic characteristics, fold type and growth mechanism of the structural belt, and calculated the shortening, uplift and interlayer strain of the anticline by area depth strain analysis.
In this paper, by interpreting the five seismic reflection profiles across the anticline belt, and combining the characteristics of surface geology and geomorphology, we studied the types, growth mechanism, geometry and kinematics characteristics, and deformation amount of the fold. The deformation length of Xihu anticline is more than 47km from west to east, in which the hidden length is more than 14km. The maximum deformation width of the exposed area is 8.5km. The Xihu anticline is characterized by small surface deformation, simple structural style and symmetrical occurrence. The interpretation of seismic reflection profile shows that the deep structural style of the anticline is relatively complex. In addition to the continuous development of a series of secondary faults in the interior of Xihu anticline, an anticline with small deformation amplitude(Xihubei anticline)is continuously developed in the north of Xihu anticline. The terrain high point of Xihu anticline is located about 12km west of Kuitun River. The deformation amplitude decreases rapidly to the east and decreases slowly to the west, which is consistent with the interpretation results of seismic reflection profile and the calculation results of shortening. The Xihu anticline is a detachment fold with the growth type of limb rotation. The deformation of Xihu anticline is calculated by area depth strain analysis method. The shortening of five seismic reflection sections A, B, C, D and E is(650±70) m, (1 070±70) m, (780±50) m, (200±40) m and(130±30) m, respectively. The shortening amount is the largest near the seismic reflection profile B of the anticline, and decreases gradually along the strike to the east and west ends of the anticline, with a more rapidly decrease to the east, which indicates that the topographic high point is also a structural high point. The excess area caused by the inflow of external material or outflow of internal matter is between -0.34km² to 0.56km². The average shortening of the Xihubei anticline is between(60±10) m and(130±40) m, and the excess area caused by the inflow of external material is between 0.50km² and 0.74km². The initial locations of the growth strata at the east part is about 1.9~2.0km underground, and the initial location of the growth strata at the west part is about 3.7km underground. We can see the strata overlying the Xihu anticline at 3.3km under ground, the strata above are basically not deformed, indicating that this section of the anticline is no longer active.     

On the evolution of finite-amplitude disturbance to the barotropic and baroclinic quasigeostrophic flows

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各向异性介质中的AVO

分析了横向各向同性和方位各向异性介质的本构关系,由此讨论弹性波在两种各向异性介质中的传播特点,提出可表征这两种介质各向异性程度的广义参数．以此为基础讨论了两种各向异性介质中存在水平界面时的反射系数近似式,将Dely等人推导的横向各向同性介质中的反射系数公式推广到方位各向异性介质的主轴方向上．根据算例讨论修正的Banik和Thomsen的近似式,着重分析两种各向异性介质中的AVO关系及其对实际勘探的影响和指导意义．     

从天文观测和生物节律论证古生物钟的可靠性

关于地球自转的速度,两百多年以来,天文学的观察计算积累了大量数据。1960年,Munk和MacDonald总结了前人的工作,肯定了地球自转角速度的长期的减慢。他们说:古生代开始的时候自转角速度比现在大得多;那时一天只有21小时。 天文学上这一论断是否正确无误,地球物理学无法验证。古生物学异军突起,找出了不容置疑的事实,有力地支援了天文学的重要发现。地球物理学家Runcorn(1970)表示欢迎。他说:“古生物学前来拯救地球物理学家”。     

星基空间人造飞行器探测概率分析

随着空间飞行器数量的日益增多,空间碰撞的概率也逐步加大。为了确保自身飞行器的安全,同时为了减少对目前在轨的飞行器的干扰,通过某种途径来感知空间飞行器的信息,包括轨道和结构外形等参数,是十分必要的。除了地基手段对空间飞行器进行观测外,星基空间飞行器探测是一种不可或缺的补充手段。文章通过对所掌握的空间飞行器数据库,给出了基于地球低轨道观测卫星情况下,星基空间飞行器探测概率的统计结果。     

风暴潮灾害情景下海岸带暴露指数时空演变研究——以福建省东山湾为例

暴露指数反映了环境在面对极端天气事件时承受灾害的潜在风险程度。研究利用遥感影像数据、数字高程数据(DEM)、海洋水深及风力数据等, 基于暴露指数模型, 以福建省东山湾为案例研究区域, 对风暴潮灾害情景下的海岸带暴露指数及其时空演变进行分析。研究结果显示: (1)近十年来, 东山湾海岸带暴露指数总体呈下降趋势, 潜在风险程度为“中”及以上区域占比由67.14%下降至59.06%, 海岸带在面对风暴潮灾害等极端天气事件时潜在的风险程度总体降低, 海湾地貌类型差异及其形态变化是影响东山湾暴露指数产生波动的主要原因; (2)基于暴露指数评价结果, 结合海岸带开发利用现状, 研究可对东山湾海岸带生态环境的敏感区域进行识别, 并制定具有针对性的开发利用与风险防范对策, 为海岸带空间规划、生态保护修复格局的科学划定提供理论支撑, 在助力海岸带陆海统筹和可持续发展上具有重要意义; (3)研究提出的一种基于时间序列的暴露指数研究技术路线和框架, 可为海岸带脆弱性评估、海岸带韧性评估、海岸带灾害监测预警等相关研究提供新的研究视角, 在基于深度学习的海岸带灾害风险预警与灾害模拟等方面也具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.