Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin,northwest China

Shift trend and step changes were detected for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin, one of the inland river basins in north‐west China. Annual runoff data from eight tributaries as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream from 1958 to 2003 were used. Seven statistical test methods were employed to identify the shift trends and step changes in the study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were used to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed‐free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were used to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers, as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream, show statistically significant decreasing trends. Future tendency of runoff for both tributaries and mainstream were consistent with that from 1958 to 2003. Step changes probably occurred in 1961 for the runoff from Huangyang, Gulang and Dajing rivers according to the Worsley likelihood ratio test, but no similar results were found using the other two test methods. Three change points (1979, 1974 and 1973) were detected for the mainstream using different methods. These change points were close to the years that reservoirs started to be operated. Both climate change and human activities, especially the latter, contributed to the decreasing runoff in the study area. Between 21% and 79% of the reduction in runoff from the mainstream was due to the impact of human activities during the past few decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study of hybrid and chaotic long-range propagation in a doublesound channel environment

This paper presents the results of the analysis of long range propagation (~200 km) in a range-dependent environment. The propagation medium is characterized by two deep sound channels. The range dependence enables energy transfer between the channels and leads to a mismatch between real data and ray predictions. To explain this mismatch, an analysis of hybrid ray propagation is presented. This analysis is completed by an interpretation in terms of chaos. This chaos is quantified in the particular case of the Bay of Biscay environment. This paper puts forward that mesoscale perturbations, such as the Mediterranean outflow in the North Atlantic, can affect long-range propagation. However, it shows that the ray theory remains reliable for a propagation range of several hundred kilometers     

Whipple telescope observations of LS I +61 303: 2004–2006

In this paper we present the results of the past two years observations on the galactic microquasar LS I +61 303 with the Whipple 10 m gamma-ray telescope. The recent MAGIC detection of the source between 200 GeV and 4 TeV suggests that the source is periodic with very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission linked to its orbital cycle. The entire 50-hour data set obtained with Whipple from 2004 to 2006 was analyzed with no reliable detection resulting. The upper limits obtained in the 2005–2006 season covered several of the same epochs as the MAGIC Telescope detections, albeit with lower sensitivity. Upper limits are placed on emission during the orbital phases of 0→0.1 and 0.8→1, phases which are not included in the MAGIC data set.      

Long‐term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin*

Some previous studies have shown that drying‐up of the lower Yellow River resulted from decreasing precipitation and excessive industrial and agricultural consumption of water from the middle and downstream regions of the Yellow River. On the basis of average air temperature, precipitation, and pan evaporation data from nearly 80 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, the monotonic trends of major climate variables over the past several decades are analysed. The analysis was mainly made for 12 months and the annual means. The isograms for annual and typical months are given in the paper. The result shows that the average temperature in the study area exhibits an increasing trend, mainly because of the increase of temperature in December, January and February. The largest trend is shown in December and the smallest is in August. There are 65 of 77 stations exhibiting a downward trend for annual precipitation. In all seasons except summer, there is a similar trend in the upstream region of the Yellow River, south of latitude 35°N. It is interesting to note that the pan evaporation has decreased in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the past several decades. April and July showed the greatest magnitude of slope, and the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou as well as the Yiluo River basin exhibited the strongest declining trend. The conclusion is that the decreasing pan evaporation results from complex changes of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, and both climate change and human activities have affected the flow regime of the Yellow River during the past several decades. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An overview of the ACE‐2 CLOUDYCOLUMN closure experiment

CLOUDYCOLUMN is one of the 6 ACE‐2 projects which took place in June‐July 1997, between Portugal and the Canary Islands. It was specifically dedicated to the study of changes of cloud radiative properties resulting from changes in the properties of those aerosols which act as cloud condensation nuclei. This process is also refered to as the aerosol indirect effect on climate. CLOUDYCOLUMN is focused on the contribution of stratocumulus clouds to that process. In addition to the basic aerosol measurements performed at the ground stations of the ACE‐2 project, 5 instrumented aircraft carried out in situ characterization of aerosol physical, chemical and nucleation properties and cloud dynamical and microphysical properties. Cloud radiative properties were also measured remotely with radiometers and a lidar. 11 case studies have been documented, from pure marine to significantly polluted air masses. The simultaneity of the measurements with the multi‐aircraft approach provides a unique data set for closure experiments on the aerosol indirect effect. In particular CLOUDYCOLUMN provided the 1st experimental evidence of the existence of the indirect effect in boundary layer clouds forming in polluted continental outbreacks. This paper describes the objectives of the project, the instrumental setup and the sampling strategy. Preliminary results published in additional papers are briefly summarized.     

Investigation on strength and stability of jointed rock mass using three‐dimensional numerical manifold method

This paper proposes a numerical model for jointed rock masses within the 3‐D numerical manifold method (NMM) framework equipped with a customized contact algorithm. The strength of rock sample containing a few sets of discontinuities is first investigated. The results of models with simple geometries are compared with the available analytical solutions to verify the developed computer code, whereas models with complex geometries are simulated to better understand the fundamental behavior and failure mechanism of jointed rock mass. Furthermore, the stability of jointed rock mass in an underground excavation is studied, where rock failure process is determined by the 3‐D NMM simulation. The simulation results provide valuable guidance on excavation process design and stabilization design in rock engineering practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rocking vibrations of a rigid embedded foundation in a poroelastic half‐space

This paper presents an analysis of the rocking vibrations of a rigid cylindrical foundation embedded in poroelastic soil. The foundation is subjected to time‐harmonic rocking excitation and is perfectly bonded to the surrounding soil. The soil underlying the foundation base is represented by a homogeneous poroelastic half‐space, whereas the soil along the side of the foundation is modeled as an independent poroelastic stratum composed of a series of infinitesimally thin layers. The behavior of the soil is governed by Biot's poroelastodynamic theory. The contact surface between the foundation base and the poroelastic soil is assumed to be smooth and either fully permeable or impermeable. The dynamic interaction problem is solved by employing a simplified analytical method. Some numerical results for the nondimensional rocking dynamic impedance and nondimensional angular displacement amplitude of the foundation are presented to show the effect of nondimensional frequency of excitation, poroelastic material parameters, hydraulic boundary condition, depth ratio and mass ratio of the foundation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing the tools for geological shape analysis,with regional‐ to local‐scale examples from the Kalgoorlie Terrane of Western Australia

Geological map data are often underused in mineral‐exploration programs, which rely increasingly on regolith geochemistry and geophysical and other remotely sensed data to generate exploration targets. However, solid geology maps, which are progressively being upgraded due to improved interpretations of superior, remotely sensed images and airborne geophysical data, can be useful in targeting specific types of mineral deposits, which formed late in the evolutionary history of the host terrane. In such terranes, the present map geometry is essentially the same as that at the time of deposit formation. This is the case for orogenic lode‐gold deposits, which commonly show predictable structural controls and/or structural geometry. Thus, the shape of a rock body, or combinations of structures and rock bodies, may provide an important guide to the exploration potential for orogenic lode‐gold deposits. However, until recently, there has been a dearth of techniques to quantify the various properties of shape, and hence test the potential of the two‐dimensional shape of geological bodies in map view as an exploration tool. Integrating techniques from the field of pattern recognition with a modern Geographical Information System (GIS) can provide the shape‐analysis tools required to investigate the geometries of geological shapes. Two‐dimensional shape analysis is now possible through the calculation of several shape metrics including, but not restricted to, aspect ratio, blockiness, elongation, compactness, complexity, roundness, spreadness and squareness. Methods are developed for describing the geometries of rock units about mineral deposits, or any geological features, at any scale, which for the first time makes it possible to compare shapes. These shape‐analysis techniques are tested using orogenic lode‐gold deposits, particularly those in the Kalgoorlie Terrane of the highly auriferous Late Archaean Norseman‐Wiluna Belt of Western Australia. On a global scale, shape analysis indicates that those greenstone belts whose volcanic rock sequences have high elongation and relative low roundness, complexity and aspect ratio (e.g. Kalgoorlie Terrane) are likely to be the most richly endowed in gold. On a more local scale, characteristics of the shape of geological features around the Golden Mile deposit are calculated and used to test the likelihood of occurrence of gold deposits with similar geometry elsewhere in the Kalgoorlie Terrane. The area with the most closely matching shape, on the basis of a 2 km clipping‐circle radius, chosen on the basis of available proximity‐analysis data, corresponds to the recently discovered Ghost Crab deposit, illustrating the potential of the shape analysis methodology in mineral exploration. Shape analysis is, at least in part, scale dependent, due to the inherent problem of being able to define rock boundaries more precisely in units that have strong geophysical signatures than those with weak signatures in poorly exposed terranes. Overcoming this problem is a challenge to the application of this methodology.     

Dynamics of shock waves in a contracting cloud

The contraction of an interstellar cloud is followed. The results indicates that there are shock waves appear during contraction. In order to study the effect of shock waves, two models have been studied. The post-shock temperature for the two models are, respectively, 3006 K and 2984 K. The density increases by more than three orders of magnitude. The gas is generally cooled by atoms, molecules, and grains. The dominant cooling process changes according to the chemical composition and the temperature of the gas. The thermal equilibrium depends on the existing physical conditions.     

An approach to catchment‐scale groundwater nitrate risk assessment from diffuse agricultural sources: a case study in the Upper Bann,Northern Ireland

DRASTIC has drawbacks in groundwater risk assessment that are important in guiding activities to prevention agricultural diffuse groundwater pollution. This paper presents an improved and GIS‐based D‐DRASTIC approach for groundwater nitrate risk assessment from diffuse agricultural sources based on DRASTIC. D‐DRASTIC considers the risk concept, nitrate loading, pollutant transport with runoff, depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone media, and the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. D‐DRASTIC was developed within an ArcGIS environment and applied to the Upper Bann Catchment, Northern Ireland as a case study. D‐DRASTIC shows that ‘very high’ and ‘high’ zones of groundwater nitrate risk occupy 5% and 11% of the case study area, respectively. When considering groundwater pollution sources and pathways, the results using D‐DRASTIC are helpful in guiding the activities of groundwater pollution prevention at the catchment scale in the context of better implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.