山东半岛南部一次沿海强降雨成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站观测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料和雷达探测等资料,对2012年9月21日山东半岛南部沿海强降雨过程的成因进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:1强降雨是在500hPa第1个西风槽过后第2个西风槽逼近的过程中产生的,850hPa以下为偏南的向岸风,且风速随时间增大,形成偏南的超低空急流,持续地向沿海输送水汽和能量,造成水汽辐合、湿度增大、对流有效位能升高。产生强降雨的水汽和不稳定能量条件远小于内陆地区。2在向岸的超低空急流的左侧产生中小尺度的涡旋和辐合上升,海岸地形抬升作用使得上升运动加强,触发对流不稳定能量释放,造成强降水。3在雷达回波中,小尺度的对流单体沿海岸线向西南方向发展,后期在日照附近的沿海形成弓状回波,向东南海区移动。     

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

Synergistic contribution of precipitation anomalies over northwestern India and the South China Sea to high temperature over the Yangtze River Valley

This study explores the characteristics of high temperature anomalies over eastern China and associated influencing factors using observations and model outputs. Results show that more long-duration (over 8 days) high temperature events occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) than over the surrounding regions, and control most of the interannual variation of summer mean temperature in situ. The synergistic effect of summer precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS) region (18°-27°N, 115°-124°E) and the northwestern India and Arabian Sea (IAS) region (18°-27°N, 60°-80°E) contributes more significantly to the variation of summer YRV temperature, relative to the respective SCS or IAS precipitation anomaly. More precipitation (enhanced condensational heating) over the SCS region strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and simultaneously weakens the westerly trough over the east coast of Asia, and accordingly results in associated high temperature anomalies over the YRV region through stimulating an East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern. More precipitation over the IAS region further adjusts the variations of the WPSH and westerly trough, and eventually reinforces high temperature anomalies over the YRV region. Furthermore, the condensational heating related to more IAS precipitation can adjust upper-tropospheric easterly anomalies over the YRV region by exciting a circumglobal teleconnection, inducing cold horizontal temperature advection and related anomalous descent, which is also conducive to the YRV high temperature anomalies. The reproduction of the above association in the model results indicates that the above results can be explained both statistically and dynamically.     

Symplectic adaptive algorithm for solving nonlinear two-point boundary value problems in Astrodynamics

In this paper, from a Hamiltonian point of view, the nonlinear optimal control problems are transformed into nonlinear two-point boundary value problems, and a symplectic adaptive algorithm based on the dual variational principle is proposed for solving the nonlinear two-point boundary value problem. The state and the costate variables within a time interval are approximated by using the Lagrange polynomial and the costate variables at two ends of the time interval are taken as independent variables. Then, based on the dual variational principle, the nonlinear two-point boundary value problems are replaced by a system of nonlinear equations which can preserve the symplectic structure of the nonlinear optimal control problem. Furthermore, the computational efficiency of the proposed symplectic algorithm is improved by using the adaptive multi-level iteration idea. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested by the problems of Astrodynamics, such as the optimal orbital rendezvous problem and the optimal orbit transfer between halo orbits.