1975—1976年地震活动与近两年全球和中国地震活动图象的比较研究及趋势分析

根据“比较科学学”的对比研究方法,对1975—1976年全球地震和中国地震活动,与最近两年全球地震活动作了对比,并分析了1900—1990年全球范围和中国大陆地震活动的特点。 据资料分析,全球性地震活动随时间分布具有高潮期和低潮期。最强烈活动期为1940—1950年左右,Ms≥7级地震年频次为25—40次;相对活动最低潮期为1980—1988年,Ms≥7级地震年颁次只有5—12次。我国境内地震活动也有高潮和低潮活动期,目前,我国大陆处于一个新的地震活动高潮期。 1980—1988年是全球性8级地震较少时段,可能是地震能量积累过程。1990年全球地震活动的突然增强,仅半年时间内发生12次Ms≥7级地震,其中菲律宾发生8级地震,震情与1975—1976年情况相类似。 本文在对比活动图象基础上,估计了全球和中国大陆今后几年中的强震活动趋势。     

Flow resistance adjustments of channel and bars in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in response to the operation of the Three Gorges Dam

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Since the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) was put into operation, the flood water level at an identical discharge rate has not displayed a decreasing trend along the...     

Defense community perspectives on uncertainty and confidence judgments

In 2007, the CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB), an expert panel composed of 11 retired admirals and generals from the United States, identified climate change as a “threat multiplier” for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. (CNA MAB National security and the threat of climate change 2007)The Department of Defense reached a similar conclusion in last year’s Quadrennial Defense Review–a legislatively mandated analysis of the Defense Department’s strategy and priorities. This document frames the long-term course for policy decision-making at the highest levels. The reports demonstrate that climate change and energy are now mainstream elements of national security planning, and can be assessed within the frameworks used to evaluate other threats, risks, and responses. However, the exact magnitude of the threat posed by climate change is difficult to calibrate in part because the language used by scientists to predict uncertainty and the confidence levels of judgments is not sufficiently clear. The defense community has a vast amount of experience exploring and dealing with uncertainty. Scientists trying to better describe the effects of climate change may be able to draw lessons from the defense community’s approach to uncertainty including how to better communicate findings to wide audiences including policy-makers.     

Evaluation of the removal of heavy metals in a natural wetland impacted by mining activities in Mexico

This research is focused on evaluating heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn) uptake and removal by Eleocharis ovata, Cyperus manimae, Typha dominguensis, and Pteridium aquilinum in a natural wetland impacted by mining activities. We analyzed heavy metals content and distribution in native plants, soils, and water of a semipermanent natural wetland in Taxco de Alarcón, Guerrero, and we also determined the physicochemical characteristics of the water. Translocation factor (TF) and bioconcentration factor (BCF) were evaluated. Results showed that physical and chemical conditions are favorable for plants development. Correlation analysis showed a good and positive relation (0.95) between Cu and Pb in soils and plants. In the analyzed matrices: Zn (0.62–2.20 mg/L) exceeded the permissible limits in water, high concentrations of Pb and Zn (26.57–525.67 and 266.67–983.33 mg/kg, respectively) were detected in the studied soils, and Pb exceeded the normal range for E. ovata and P. aquilinum in the analyzed plants. Uptake of heavy metals in the tissues of different species was found in the following order: root > leaf. Data of TF and BCF showed that E. ovata is a tolerant plant with respect to heavy metals exposure since TF value was greater than 1. This study showed that E. ovata could be considered as a bioaccumulator of heavy metals in contaminated soils.     

Silver in Tokyo Bay estuarine waters and Japanese rivers

Dissolved and particulate concentrations of silver in Tokyo Bay estuarine waters and Japanese rivers were determined in this study. The dissolved silver concentrations in the surface water of Tokyo Bay range from 5.9 to 15.1 pmol kg⁻¹, which is comparable to those in the surface water of the Japan Sea, but two or three times higher than those in the surface water of the open ocean. However, elevated concentrations of dissolved silver are not found in Tokyo Bay compared with those in other highly urbanized estuaries, such as San Francisco Bay (20∼243 pmol kg⁻¹). In the Tokyo Bay estuary, silver typically exhibits non-conservative mixing behavior, which is a common feature in the other estuaries reported previously. Dissolved silver concentrations decrease with salinity from the rivers to the mouth of Tokyo Bay. Silver is efficiently scavenged by suspended particulates, as evidenced by the high conditional distribution coefficients for silver throughout the estuary (log K_d > 5.0 ± 0.6). The silver fluxes into Tokyo Bay via inflowing rivers and atmospheric deposition were estimated as 83 kg y⁻¹ and 15 kg y⁻¹, respectively. A simple budget calculation shows that the silver supplied from rivers and atmosphere must be rapidly scavenged within the Tokyo Bay estuary.     

New insights into the high-pressure polymorphism of SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> cristobalite

Single-crystal X-ray diffraction experiments with SiO₂ α-cristobalite reveal that the well-known reversible displacive phase transition to cristobalite-II, which occurs at approximately 1.8 GPa, can be suppressed by rapid pressure increase, leading to an overpressurized metastable state, persisting to pressure as high as 10 GPa. In another, slow pressure increase experiment, the monoclinic high-pressure phase-II was observed to form at ~1.8 GPa, in agreement with earlier in situ studies, and its crystal structure has been unambiguously determined. Single-crystal data have been used to refine the structure models of both phases over the range of pressure up to the threshold of formation of cristobalite X-I at ~12 GPa, providing important constraints on the feasibility of the two competing silica densification models proposed in the literature, based on quantum mechanical calculations. Preliminary diffraction data obtained for cristobalite X-I reveal a monoclinic unit cell that contradicts the currently assumed model.     

Morphotectonic Appraisal of Yamuna River Basin in Headwater Region: A Relative Active Tectonics Purview

In the present paper integrated appraisals of landform evolution and their geomorphic features, drainage networks across the upper part of Yamuna river basin have been attempted by using various geomorphic indices such as watershed, drainage density (D), drainage texture, stream-gradient index (SL), hypsometric integral (HI), drainage basin asymmetry (AF), mountain front sinuosity (Smf), sinuosity index (SI), valley floor height and width ratio (Vf) and data of historical earthquakes in characterizing the basin in view of relative index of active tectonics (RIAT) on DEM in geographic information systems (GIS) environment to assess the influence of recent tectonics on geomorphologic growth of the basin.The substantiated RIAT classes through some field observations and corroborated by recent seismicity reveal the recent activation of Yamuna tear faults in the basin with delineation of four RIAT classes such as class-1 (inactive 9.8% of the area), class-2 (low active; 16.40% of the area), class-3 (moderately active; 42.38% of the area) and class-4 (very active; 31.62%). The results suggest that the Himalayan frontal thrust (HFT) and Yamuna tear (YT) located in the basin is morphogenic in nature and got activated several times as evidenced by number of seismic activities in the basin and adjoining regions. The incision, and sharp turning of rivers, crenulations and warping of cross beddings/laminations and silt/clay beds and lenses, megascopic and mesoscopic faulting in sediment sequences suggest a very active nature of the HFT and YT till date in association with three prolific microseismogenic weak zones These active discontinuities appear to support the formation and development of different deformational features in sediment sequences which may be indirectly related to subduction and underthrusting of Indian plate under Eurasian plate below the Himalayan mountain chain.     

An Introduction to MODISI and SCMOD Methods for Correction of the MODIS Snow Assessment Algorithm

Detection, monitoring and precise assessment of the snow covered regions is an important issue. Snow cover area and consequently the amount of runoff generated from snowmelt have a significant effect on water supply management. To precisely detect and monitor the snow covered area we need satellite images with suitable spatial and temporal resolutions where we usually lose one for the other. In this study, products of two sensors MODIS and ASTER both on board of TERRA platform having low and high spatial resolution respectively were used. The objective of the study was to modify the snow products of MODIS by using simultaneous images of ASTER. For this, MODIS snow index image with high temporal resolution were compared with that of ASTER, using regression and correlation analysis. To improve NDSI index two methods were developed. The first method generated from direct comparison of ASTER averaged NDSI with those of MODIS (MODISI). The second method generated by dividing MODIS NDSI index into 10 codes according to their percentage of surface cover and then compared the results with the difference between ASTER averaged and MODIS snow indices (SCMOD). Both methods were tested against some 16 MODIS pixels. It is found that the precision of the MODISI method was more than 96%. This for SCMOD was about 98%. The RMSE of both methods were as good as 0.02.     

Universal time from VLBI single-baseline observations during CONT08

The IVS Intensive sessions are single-baseline, 1-h VLBI sessions carried out everyday in order to determine Universal Time (UT1). We investigate different possibilities to improve the results of such sessions. We do this investigation by extracting 2-h single-baseline sessions from the CONT08 data set. These are analysed like normal Intensives, and the results are compared to the results of the analysis of the full CONT08 data set. We find that tropospheric asymmetry is the major error source for the single-baseline sessions. It is possible to improve the accuracy of the estimated UT1 either by using accurate a priori tropospheric gradients or by estimating gradients in the data analysis.