A western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996 to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s⁻¹ are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions, potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in FOR.     

Influence of leaf water potential on diurnal changes in CO2 and water vapour fluxes

Mass and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and vegetation are driven by meteorological variables, and controlled by plant water status, which may change more markedly diurnally than soil water. We tested the hypothesis that integration of dynamic changes in leaf water potential may improve the simulation of CO₂ and water fluxes over a wheat canopy. Simulation of leaf water potential was integrated into a comprehensive model (the ChinaAgrosys) of heat, water and CO₂ fluxes and crop growth. Photosynthesis from individual leaves was integrated to the canopy by taking into consideration the attenuation of radiation when penetrating the canopy. Transpiration was calculated with the Shuttleworth-Wallace model in which canopy resistance was taken as a link between energy balance and physiological regulation. A revised version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry stomatal model was applied to produce a new canopy resistance model, which was validated against measured CO₂ and water vapour fluxes over winter wheat fields in Yucheng (36°57′ N, 116°36′ E, 28 m above sea level) in the North China Plain during 1997, 2001 and 2004. Leaf water potential played an important role in causing stomatal conductance to fall at midday, which caused diurnal changes in photosynthesis and transpiration. Changes in soil water potential were less important. Inclusion of the dynamics of leaf water potential can improve the precision of the simulation of CO₂ and water vapour fluxes, especially in the afternoon under water stress conditions.     

气象电视会商会议系统的使用和维护

本文介绍省台———国家气象中心的电视会议系统的构成原理,总结省台与国家气象中心电视会商系统使用维护过程中的经验,对系统的使用和正在进行安装调试的“省—市—县”电视会商系统的使用提供借鉴。     

模式水平分辨率对祁连山区降水模拟影响的初步分析

利用中尺度模式MM5V3．6，针对祁连山地区2002年7月14～17日的一次降水过程，设计了一组不同水平分辨率的试验进行数值模拟。并将模式结果与实测资料进行对比，结果表明：高水平分辨率对降水中心位置的模拟较好，但同时会产生虚假降水中心，且模拟的降水中心量值一般都大于实测值。而低水平分辨率对降水量值的模拟较好，但对降水中心位置的模拟没有高水平分辨率的好。     

一个半线性耦合抛物型方程组爆破解的速率估计

考虑一个方程和非线性边界条件耦合的半线性抛物型方程组,运用Scaling方法、Green函数、Schauder估计等方法,研究该方程组解的爆破速率,并给出非线性反应项和吸收项对爆破速率的影响。     

开封、安阳市气温变化异同分析

利用开封、安阳市1961-2010年2月气温资料,采用数理统计原理、回归分析、倾向率、显著性检验等方法,对两市的气温变化及异同进行分析.分析结果表明:两市49 a年平均气温呈上升趋势,开封年平均气温高于安阳,安阳近10 a气候变暖有减缓趋势.春季两市平均气温都呈上升趋势,开封上升幅度大干安阳,安阳近10 a气候变暖有减...     

粗糙冷岛宽度与布局对局地气候影响的数值研究

利用一个二维大气模式，研究粗糙冷岛宽度与布局对局地气候的影响问题。结果表明：粗糙冷岛激发的局地环流随其宽度的变化表现出３种流型－单环流型，双上升单下沉型，双环流型。存在４０－５０ｋｍ左右的临界宽度ｄｃ，当粗糙冷岛宽度ｄ〈ｄｃ时，粗糙冷岛激发的局地环流随ｄ的增加而明显增强；而ｄ〉ｄｃ时，局地环流随ｄ的增国变化不大，甚至趋向准定常。     

内蒙古阿巴嘎旗乌和尔楚鲁图钼矿区成矿斑岩的岩石地球化学特征与年代学

乌和尔楚鲁图钼矿床位于国内重要的二连东乌旗钼矿成矿带中,为近几年新发现的斑岩型钼矿床.本次就该矿床成矿岩体的地球化学及其U-Pb年代学开展相关研究.结果表明: 矿区中的成矿岩体属过铝质、高钾钙碱性系列;富集大离子亲石元素(LILE)、亏损高场强元素(HFSE),具有与南岭型花岗岩相似的地球化学特征.锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年显示,与乌和尔楚鲁图钼矿床成矿有关的花岗斑岩形成于中侏罗世((160 ± 1)Ma).因此,可推测乌和尔楚鲁图钼矿床斑岩型钼矿的成矿时代为燕山早期.综合研究认为乌和尔楚鲁图斑岩型钼矿床形成于后碰撞的构造环境.     

Formation of the adakite-like granitoid complex and porphyry copper-gold deposit in Shaxi from southern Tancheng-Lujiang fault belt： A clue to the West Pacific plate subduction

On the basis of the geological and geochemical studies, including chemical analysis of bulk rocks, rare-earth and trace element studies, fluid inclusion, and S and O isotopic analyses, the authors described the geo-logical background of the deposit in detail and presented significant proofs for the conditions of formation of the Shaxi porphyry copper-gold deposit. Compared with other large and supper-large porphyry copper deposits in China and the adjacent Cu-Au mineralized areas, the ore-forming processes and conditions were analyzed; and the possibil-ity of forming large porphyry copper deposits in the Shaxi area was discussed. The present study indicated that the ore-forming fluid and material were mainly of magmatic origin, while meteoric water played a certain role in the ore-forming processes. Interactions between subducting and overriding plates provided a major driving force for the formation of igneous rocks and the deposition of metal elements in East China since Jurassic. Based on the geo-chemical data of the Shaxi intrusive, it is found that the copper (gold) mineralization is closely related to the genesis of adakite-like intrusive in the Shaxi area. This adakite-like intrusive was formed in the subduction environment as a result of the subduction of the West Pacific plate toward the East China continent, where there is a great potential-ity to form a large porphyry copper deposit.     

地震勘探频率中近抛物线型衰减的物理解释

几十年来,人们对地震波在真实介质中传播发生的衰减进行了理论与实践两方面研究。文中综述了前人工作,包括机制与测试工作,同时给以评论,指出对于传播距离与频率之间关系研究不够,并且对实测结果作物理解释较少。作者用VSP技术进行了不同距离上衰减与频率之间关系的研究,提出了反射补偿的具体方法,采用了多项式拟合技术,得到了近抛物线型衰减的结果。然后,利用波前压力与振动的固有频率思想对测试结果进行了讨论,得出一些有益的结论。