奇异谱分析方法在夏季降雨预测中的应用

运用奇异谱分析方法对石家庄市83年降水进行了统计分析，结果表明：石家庄市近百年夏季降水的趋势变化不太显著，主要以波动变化为主，主振荡周期分别为5－6年、10年左右及30－40年左右的长周期变化，各重建分量振幅、位相具有明显的年代际变化。利用重建分量进行降水趋势预测，1998－2001年试报表明，效果较好。     

Estimation of possible climatic changes of river runoff in the Northern Dvina River basin in the 21st century

Presented is a method of studying possible climate-driven changes of river runoff characteristics, according to which the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used for computing the climate system impact, whereas the response of a watershed to given disturbance is estimated using the model of runoff formation in a river basin. The study is carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin. Estimates of possible changes (relative to the reference period) by the middle and late 21st century of such water regime characteristics as mean annual and maximum water discharge, as well as mean discharge values for the spring, summer-fall and winter seasons, are presented.     

Ecological indicators showing the succession of macrofauna communities in Sonneratia apetala artificial mangrove wetlands on Qi’ao Island at Zhuhai, South China

The Sonneratia apetala artificial mangroves in the intertidal zone of Da Wei Bay at Qi’ao Island of Zhu-hai, South China were chosen as the macrofauna succession plots while bare tidal flats of the same size were established as control plots in surrounding interference-free areas. Conventional change indicators of community structure, such as biomass and biodiversity, and indicators, such as exergy and specific exergy, which reflect the information change of overall communities, were used to analyze the succession of macro-fauna communities inS. apetala artificial mangroves. The similarities and differences in variation tendency of the different ecological indicators and their reflected ecological principles were compared. The results showed that from D-1 to D-1275 after plantingS. apetala, the biomass of the macrofauna communities first increased, which was then followed by an increase in the network relationship between the macrofauna communities （analysis of the Pielou evenness index and Shannon-Wiener diversity index）. The system in-formation （specific exergy） increased the slowest. Between D-1460 and D-2370 after plantingS. apetala, there was a decrease in biomass, network structure, and system information in the succession plots. After the decrease in the system information （the specific exergy）, there was a decline in the network relationships （Pielou evenness index and Shannon-Wiener diversity index）. Biomass was the last indicator to decrease. The similarities and differences among the different ecological indicators varied during the succession pro-cess, which reflected the relativity and differences among the indicators. This study suggested that, although the species diversity index can be an effective indicator of two types of changes （network structure and system information）, it was quite clear that species diversity measurement was not suitable for expressing the changes in biomass during the succession process. While exergy and specific exergy can provide useful information     

渤海莱州湾地区晚更新世以来有孔虫特征反映的古环境变化

Controlled by climate changes, there were three large-scale transgressions and regressions around the Bohai Sea during the late Quaternary, which were accepted by most geologists. However, a big controversy still exists about the time when the transgressions occurred separately. In order to find out the process of the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary, the foraminifera assemblages from a new borehole Lz908 in the southern coast of the Laizhou Bay were studied, and then the transgressive strata were indentified. Combined with accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon 14C（AMS14C） and optically stimulated luminescence（OSL） ages, the occurrence time of these transgressions were re-determined. The result showed that three major large-scale transgressions occurred separately at the beginning of marine isotopic stage 7（MIS7）, the last interglacial period（MIS5） and the Holocene. In addition, a small-scale transgression occurred in the mid-MIS6, and the corresponding transgressive stratum was deposited. The transgressive deposition of MIS3 was also discovered in this study. However, the characteristics of the foraminifera indicated the environment during this period was colder than that in the MIS5. By comparison with the global sea-level changes, the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary can be consistent with the global climate changes.     

覆盖中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮模型的研究及适用

精细化风暴潮预报是目前风暴潮预报重点发展方向之一,本文首次建立起了一个覆盖整个中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮数值模型,克服了以往分区域数值模型的不足,该模型在中国沿海地区的分辨率达到300m左右。模型采用了并行计算,并对2012年和2013年灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了数值检验,计算精度和计算所用时间都能够满足业务化运行的要求。本文同时还根据中国气象局、美国国家气象局等5家主要台风预报机构给出的24h台风预报,对2013年度灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了24h数值预报检验,检验结果表明:根据中国气象局台风登陆前24h预报可以得到更准确的风暴潮预报结果,其预报结果优于其他各家预报结果。该结论可以为今后的台风风暴潮预报中台风路径的选取提供重要的参考。     

南海北部深水区新生代岩浆岩分布规律及其与海底地质灾害的相关性

前人对南海北部新生代陆缘盆地结构、构造样式和期次等做了大量的研究工作,但对于具体体现内动力过程的岩浆活动关注较少,尤其是北部深水区的研究鲜有涉及。本文基于二维地震剖面的解译分析,将南海北部新生代岩浆岩划分为3个集中分布区:琼东南-西沙区、神狐区和东沙区。各区域岩浆岩的产出状态有所差异,其中琼东南-西沙区岩浆岩的平面展布规律性极强,主要受右行右阶的走滑断裂控制;神狐区岩浆岩位于NW向与NE向断裂的交汇处,侵位空间受先存断裂制约;东沙区岩浆岩的产生与东沙运动期间区域伸展过程有直接关系。作为内动力的表征,岩浆作用对于海底地形地貌具有重要的改造作用,与活动断裂、海底滑坡、浅层气等海底地质灾害也具有成因上的关联。     

基于SVM的海底声纳图像底质识别*

对海底底质声纳图像分割,提取单元特征向量进行主成份分析,选取均值、标准差、对比度、相关系数、能量及同质性作为训练特征向量,优化支持向量机(SVM)参数.利用多分类 SVM 对砂、礁石、泥进行训练,有效、快速地分离出了3种底质类型,测试精度高于80%,表明该方法可有效用于海底底质声纳图像的识别和分类.     

台湾岛以东海域束毛藻种群的组成与分布

分别对1996年5月和1997年7月台湾岛以东黑潮及邻近海域51个采样站位的87份网采浮游植物进行了分析,总结了束毛藻种群的物种构成和丰度分布特征,并初步探讨了水动力条件、温盐、营养盐及其他元素对束毛藻生长及分布的影响.结果表明,调查区的束毛藻种群由铁氏束毛藻(Trichodesmium thiebautii)、汉氏束毛藻(Trichodesmium hildebrandtii)和红海束毛藻(Trichodesmium erythraeum)组成,前者分布最为普遍,检出率100%,丰度最大.1996年5月束毛藻平均藻丝体密度为44.55伊102 filaments/m3,铁氏束毛藻占91%,在吕宋海峡密集,总体呈现西南高,东北低的分布态势.1997年7月束毛藻平均藻丝体密度为152.72伊102 filaments/m3,铁氏束毛藻占99%,除吕宋海峡外,台湾东北部海域为次高值区,总体呈现西南高,中部和东部低的分布态势.较之邻近海区结果,台湾岛以东黑潮及邻近海域的束毛藻平均藻丝体密度高于太平洋赤道热带海域、南黄海和东海陆架区、东海产卵场,低于台湾海峡西侧20 m 以浅和东海低氧区.在台湾岛以东海域,束毛藻的丰度分布由其特定的地理位置和黑潮流向所决定,高温高盐的黑潮水系利于束毛藻的增殖,束毛藻的丰度分布与 Fe、P 等化学因子的关系有待进一步寻找证据.     

淤泥质潮滩剖面冲淤演变数值模拟分析——以河北省沧州市为例

为全面剖析淤泥质潮滩变化规律及演变特征,运用修改后的输沙公式建立了淤泥质潮滩演变数值模型。经2000,2007年野外实测数据验证,表明该模型各参数设置准确,较真实地反演了滩涂剖面变化过程,可用于淤泥质潮滩的模拟计算。根据数值模型计算结果得出如下结论:1987-2010年河北省沧州市淤泥质潮滩坡度不断增大,但增长速率变化不大,为0.002×10-3。0 m等深线上部坡度逐渐变缓,年均降低0.021×10-3;下部坡度不断变陡,年均增长0.022×10-3。研究区潮滩未达平衡状态,其坡度将进一步变陡。该输沙模型及研究结论对淤泥质潮滩的保护具有重要的理论指导意义,为其科学开发管理提供实际参考依据。     

A two-dimensional morphological model based on next generation circulation solver II: Application to Caofeidian, Bohai Bay, China

This paper is a companion of a two-part papers on the development of a two-dimensional morphological model—CurWaC2D-Sed, based on next generation circulation solver. In this paper, the model developed in paper I is applied to the large-scale construction of near-harbor industrial zone with deep water harbor by reclamation in Caofeidian, Bohai Bay, which is a typical sandbar-lagoon bay-type tidal inlet system. Characteristics of tides, currents, waves and sediments in Caofeidian are firstly analyzed with field data from comprehensive field observations carried out in 2008. These data are then used for model calibration and validation, showing a good agreement between simulated results and field measurements for tides, currents and suspended sediments. The verified model is applied to study the effects of the construction of Caofeidian embankment and the on-going engineering scheme on hydrodynamics and sediment transports as compared with no constructions under three representative tide conditions and their combinations with normal and strong waves as well as on morphology evolution. The simulated results indicate that the present scheme leads to morphological changes in Caofeidian with acceptable rates of erosion and sedimentation. However, some attentions should be paid to erosion at offshore wharf in front of Caofedian foreland which may lead to potentially increasing landslide risks due to steep slope and sedimentation in Laogonggou creek.