Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.     

辽西阜新盆地下白垩统沙海组油源再认识

<正>1研究目的(Objective)下白垩统九佛堂组及沙海组烃源岩是辽宁西部阜新盆地最重要的两套烃源岩。一般认为,沙海组烃源岩为一套煤系偏腐殖型烃源岩,以生气为主;九佛堂组为湖相偏腐泥型烃源岩,以生油为主。已有文献报道也表明阜新盆地各层位包括沙海组原油与九佛堂组烃源岩有密切的亲缘关系,而与沙海组烃源岩关系不大。沙海组内部具备自生自储的油气成藏条件,沙海组烃源岩能否作为油源对沙海组储层形成有效供油,是本文研究的目的。     

太阳表面米粒结构观测对比度分析

分析以观测系统焦面上和探测器测到的太阳表面米粒结构的对比度与观测系统口径，大气湍流相干长度以及系统探测灵敏度的关系，给出了不同口径，不同大气湍流相干长度以及不同系统探测灵敏度时的米粒结构对比值计算结果，此外还给出了实验结果。     

阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响分析

蒸散发是水文过程的关键环节,研究气候因子对潜在蒸散发的影响,有助于深入认识水文过程对气候变化的响应。本文基于阿克苏河流域1960-2007 年逐日气象资料和Penman-Monteith公式,估算并分析参考作物蒸散量(RET) 时空变化特征,并用多元回归方法定量区分气候因子变化对RET 变化的贡献率。研究发现流域RET 空间差异明显,东部平原区平均年RET 为1100mm左右,是西部山区的近2 倍;东南部绿洲区的RET显著减少,而西部变化复杂。RET变化趋势的季节差异也很显著,以夏季变幅最大,是年变化的主要贡献者。高海拔地区相对湿度对RET变化影响最大,其它区域的风速变化对RET变化的贡献率最高。库车和乌恰站的风速变化对RET变化的贡献率大于50%,是RET变化的主导因素。     

莫莫格国家级自然保护区的鱼类多样性

2008～2010年,在鱼类资源调查的基础上,分析了莫莫格国家级自然保护区的鱼类多样性特征。调查结果显示,莫莫格国家级自然保护区有鱼类物种5目11科42属49种,其中本区土著种5目10科38属45种,包括中国特有种4种,中国易危种5种,冷水种8种,国家II级保护动物1种。土著种群落中,有鲤形目(Cyprini-formes)鱼类32种,鲤科(Cyprinidae)鱼类29种,鮈亚科(Gobioninae)鱼类13种;古北界北方区黑龙江亚区黑龙江分区的物种为22种;源于东部平原和北方平原生态类群的鱼类有27种;适应于江—湖缓流环境和淡水定居生活的鱼类有33种;草上产卵和水层产卵繁殖的鱼类有37种;杂食性和初级肉食性种类有28种,它们均相对占优势。莫莫格国家级自然保护区与嫩江的鱼类群落物种结构Jaccard系数和Morisita-Horn相似性指数分别为0.918和0.838;稀有种(包括中国易危种)和常见种分别为14种和25种;物种多度格局近似于对数正态分布。这些结果表明,莫莫格国家级自然保护区的鱼类多样性与嫩江密切相关,鱼类区系复杂,物种组成与生态类型多样;群落结构相对较稳定,多样性程度相对较高,但仍面临着稀有种(包括中国易危种)尚占有一定比例而导致群落结构脆弱的潜在威胁。保持嫩江鱼类群落结构的稳定,对维护和发展莫莫格国家级自然保护区的鱼类多样性具有特别重要的意义。     

气候变化对长江上游径流影响预估

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个气候模式在3种典型浓度路径(RCPs)下的预估结果驱动SWAT水文模型,预估了21世纪气候变化对长江上游年径流量、季节分配以及极端径流的影响。结果表明：预估的长江上游平均气温呈显著上升趋势,21世纪末较当前(1986—2005年)升高1.5~5.5℃,降水总体呈增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前气候平均值,21世纪末相对于当前增加5%~15%。流域内气候变化存在明显空间差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域气温升高和降水增加幅度均大于流域平均值。预估的长江上游年径流量及各月平均径流均有增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前多年平均值,21世纪中期增加4%~8%,21世纪末增加10%~15%。预估的径流年内分布的均匀性有所增加,但年际变化明显增大,极端旱涝事件的频率和强度明显增加。预估的各子流域径流变化对气候变化的响应也存在差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域年径流量、年际变化和年内分布变化小,对气候变化的响应表现为低敏感;嘉陵江流域、乌江流域和长江上游干流径流增加幅度大,同时极端丰枯出现的频率和程度增加显著,是气候变化响应的敏感区域。     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

Morphological analysis on the coherence of kHz QPOs

We take the recently published data of twin kHz quasi-period oscillations (QPOs) in neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) as the samples, and investigate the morphology of the samples, which focuses on the quality factor, peak frequency of kHz QPOs, and try to infer their physical mechanism. We notice that: (1) The quality factors of upper kHz QPOs are low (2～20 in general) and increase with the kHz QPO peak frequencies for both Z and Atoll sources. (2) The distribution of quality factor versus frequency for the lower kHz QPOs are quite different between Z and Atoll sources. For most Z source samples, the quality factors of lower kHz QPOs are low (usually lower than 15) and rise steadily with the peak frequencies except for Sco X-1, which drop abruptly at the frequency of about 750 Hz. While for most Atoll sources, the quality factors of lower kHz QPOs are very high (from 2 to 200) and usually have a rising part, a maximum and an abrupt drop. (3) There are three Atoll sources (4U 1728-34, 4U 1636-53 and 4U 1608-52) of displaying very high quality factors for lower kHz QPOs. These three sources have been detected with the spin frequencies and sidebands, in which the source with higher spin frequency presents higher quality factor of lower kHz QPOs and lower difference between sideband frequency and lower kHz QPO frequency.     

太白山国家级自然保护区的生态评价

根据太白山国家级自然保护区的基本特征,确定7个评价指标,运用指标赋分和层次分析法进行生态评价,该保护区生态质量较好