中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

近20年京津唐地区不透水面变化的遥感监测

不透水面是衡量城市化程度的重要指标之一,对京津唐城市群的不透水面进行深入研究,可以量化城市群扩张过程及其影响,对该区域多城市协调发展及规划布局具有重要意义。本文结合高分辨遥感影像、生长季及落叶季的Landsat TM遥感影像和夜间灯光数据等,采用分类和回归树（Classification and rRegression Tree, CART）算法,构建了适于京津唐地区不透水面盖度提取的技术方案,获取了京津唐地区1995-2016年共5期地表不透水面盖度专题信息,并分析了地表不透水面的时空演变规律,结论为：① 适于京津唐地区不透水面盖度提取的CART算法的最佳输入变量组合为：生长季和落叶季的Landsat TM图像以及对应的夜间灯光数据;其次为生长季Landsat TM遥感图像和夜间灯光数据组合方案。利用该组合方案,ISP估算输出结果的交叉验证精度R值可以达到约0.85,可以满足地表不透水面纵向对比分析的需要。② 从地表不透水面总面积数量值来看,1995-2016年京津唐主体城市区域整体上呈增长趋势,其中2011-2016年地表不透水面积增加愈加明显;③ 从地表不透水面盖度值的高低来看,1995-2016年京津唐中、高盖度不透水面的占比都是在不断增长的,低盖度不透水面占比存在少量下降现象,且京、津、唐3城市的主体城区各阶段变化差异较大,反映出了各城市扩张具有各自不同的时空演变特征。     

Soil Organic Carbon Contents and Stocks in Coastal Salt Marshes with Spartina alterniflora Following an Invasion Chronosequence in the Yellow River Delta,China

Plant invasion alters the fundamental structure and function of native ecosystems by affecting the biogeochemical pools and fluxes of materials and energy. Native(Suaeda salsa) and invasive(Spartina alterniflora) salt marshes were selected to study the effects of Spartina alterniflora invasion on soil organic carbon(SOC) contents and stocks in the Yellow River Delta. Results showed that the SOC contents(g/kg) and stocks(kg/m~2) were significantly increased(P 0.05) after Spartina alterniflora invasion of seven years, especially for the surface soil layer(0–20 cm). The SOC contents exhibited an even distribution along the soil profiles in native salt marshes, while the SOC contents were gradually decreased with depth after Spartina alterniflora invasion of seven years. The natural ln response ratios(Ln RR) were applied to identify the effects of short-term Spartina alterniflora invasion on the SOC stocks. We also found that Spartina alterniflora invasion might cause soil organic carbon losses in a short-term phase(2–4 years in this study) due to the negative Ln RR values, especially for 20–60 cm depth. And the SOCD in surface layer(0–20 cm) do not increase linearly with the invasive age. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that silt + clay content was exponentially related with SOC in surface layer(Adjusted R~2 = 0.43, P 0.001), suggesting that soil texture could play a key role in SOC sequestration of coastal salt marshes.     

武汉主城区液化潜能分区研究

搜集并整理武汉主城区地震安全性评价控制性钻孔SPT-N资料,配合武汉市地震动参数小区划成果,采用规范法对各场地土层在罕遇地震作用下液化可能性进行判别。以液化指数作为分区指标并结合各场地坐标,绘制武汉主城区液化潜能分区图。分区图初步预测了罕遇地震发生以后,可能发生液化的区域及其严重性,且表明无论是分布面积还是液化潜能,长江右岸均大于长江左岸。通过与4次历史大震液化资料的对比分析,武汉主城区可能液化场地具有地下水位埋深浅、液化土层分布范围广、埋藏深度大的特点。     

Leak-off mechanism and pressure prediction for shallow sediments in deepwater drilling

Deepwater sediments are prone to loss circulation in drilling due to a low overburden gradient. How to predict the magnitude of leak-off pressure more accurately is an important issue in the protection of drilling safety and the reduction of drilling cost in deep water. Starting from the mechanical properties of a shallow formation and based on the basic theory of rock-soil mechanics, the stress distribution around a borehole was analyzed. It was found that the rock or soil on a borehole is in the plastic yield state before the effective tensile stress is generated, and the effective tangential and vertical stresses increase as the drilling fluid density increases; thus, tensile failure will not occur on the borehole wall. Based on the results of stress calculation, two mechanisms and leak-off pressure prediction models for shallow sediments in deepwater drilling were put forward, and the calculated values of these models were compared with the measured value of shallow leak-off pressure in actual drilling. The results show that the MHPS (minimum horizontal principle stress) model and the FIF (fracturing in formation) model can predict the lower and upper limits of leak-off pressure. The PLC (permeable lost circulation) model can comprehensively analyze the factors influencing permeable leakage and provide a theoretical basis for leak-off prevention and plugging in deepwater drilling.     

OceanRoute: Vessel Mobility Data Processing and Analyzing Model Based on MapReduce

The network coverage is a big problem in ocean communication, and there is no low-cost solution in the short term. Based on the knowledge of Mobile Delay Tolerant Network (MDTN), the mobility of vessels can create the chances of end-to-end communication. The mobility pattern of vessel is one of the key metrics on ocean MDTN network. Because of the high cost, few experiments have focused on research of vessel mobility pattern for the moment. In this paper, we study the traces of more than 4000 fishing and freight vessels. Firstly, to solve the data noise and sparsity problem, we design two algorithms to filter the noise and complement the missing data based on the vessel’s turning feature. Secondly, after studying the traces of vessels, we observe that the vessel’s traces are confined by invisible boundary. Thirdly, through defining the distance between traces, we design MR-Similarity algorithm to find the mobility pattern of vessels. Finally, we realize our algorithm on cluster and evaluate the performance and accuracy. Our results can provide the guidelines on design of data routing protocols on ocean MDTN.     

我国海洋战略性新兴产业国际化发展研究

海洋战略性新兴产业的国际化发展对于建设海洋强国和发展海洋经济具有重要的理论和实际意义。文章分析我国海洋战略性新兴产业国际化起步晚和发展快、产业结构不断完善和区域发展水平存在差异的发展状况,提出目前存在的缺乏区域协调配合和交流合作以及政府支持政策亟须细化等主要问题,探索区域差异化发展模式、产业技术创新联盟合作模式、多元化投融资模式和国际合作模式等海洋战略性新兴产业国际化发展模式,在此基础上提出优化产业结构和布局、完善发展体制机制、加强国际交流合作、加强资金投入和人才培养以及强化示范项目建设的对策建议。     

基于陆海统筹的我国围填海管理

文章对比分析日本、荷兰和韩国以及我国的围填海管理情况,提出我国在围填海管理方面缺少专门法律、相关规划亟须协调和衔接、海洋管理存在交叉或缺位以及公众参与程度较低等问题;根据陆海统筹的理论内涵,分别从主管部门、规划和资源市场3个维度,对我国围填海管理进行统筹分析;基于陆海统筹建立围填海管理制度框架,重点从规划计划、项目审批、监督检查和后评估等方面加强制度建设,以期优化陆海资源配置和科学管理围填海。     

一种高Q值单频水声信号放大提取电路的设计

针对水声信号所处环境复杂、背景噪声源多的特点,提出了一种基于JFET的超低噪音放大电路,该电路选用两片低噪音的场效应管2SK170作为第一级放大器件,经过CR高通滤波连接到同相放大电路,整体电路增益可达70dB;为进一步提升接收信号信噪比,结合双T滤波器特点优化设计出一种高Q值选频电路;通过Multisim14仿真表明,设计的电路在1 Hz处的电压噪声密度仅为2.4 nV/Hz^0.5,滤波器Q值可达25.6,结合实际电路测试结果表明,设计的电路能够满足水声测量要求。     

Retrieval of atmospheric mass densities in lower thermosphere below 200 km from precise orbit of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B by analytical and numerical methods

Taking the re-entry object CZ-3B R/B (COSPAR identifier 2012-018D, NORAD catalog number 38253) as an example, retrieval of atmospheric mass densities in lower thermosphere below 200 km from its rebuilt precise orbit is studied in this paper. Two methodologies, i.e. analytical and numerical methods, are adopted in the retrieval. Basic principles of these two methodologies are briefly introduced. Based on the short-arc sparse observational data accumulated in the high accuracy re-entry prediction, orbit determinations of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B are performed sectionally, and then its precise orbit is rebuilt. According to the orbit theory, the variation of orbital semi-major axis of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B induced by atmospheric drag perturbation only is derived from the rebuilt precise orbit. In the derivation of secular change of the orbital semi-major axis of re-entry object CZ-3B R/B induced by atmospheric drag perturbation only, the time-span is set as one minute tentatively. And then retrieval results of atmospheric mass densities in lower thermosphere below 200 km by analytical and numerical methods are presented, as well as their bias deviations from the calculated results of the NRLMSISE-00 empirical model of the atmosphere. Setting bias deviation bands, the corresponding ‘confidence coefficients’ of the retrieved atmospheric mass densities with respect to the model values are given. Average bias deviations of the retrieved atmospheric mass densities by analytical and numerical methods from the model values are also calculated respectively. On the whole, the retrieved atmospheric mass densities by numerical method approach to the model values more closely; the differences between the retrieved results and the model values are relatively smaller at the peaks of atmospheric mass densities than the other places.